MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)

[pbrower2a]

I have my bias on insider polls: I believe them if they give bad news to the client and otherwise demand outside corroboration if they are favorable to the client. 

[pbrower2a]

[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbowjLNXQAAqA3v?format=jpg&name=360x360][/img]

One possible, graphic explanation. COVID-19 is hitting Missouri hard.

When it comes to heat, Kansas City is much like Dallas in the summer, and St. Louis is much like Jackson, Mississippi. Missouri is, on the whole, brutally hot in the summer. It has a fire-and-ice climate as few other places in the world except for places of similar latitude west of the Appalachians (I can't praise the climatic zone that includes Peoria, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, thank you).

[pbrower2a]

Outlier for now until corroborated.

Missouri is basically divided as if it were dumbbells in Kansas City and St. Louis with a bar at the Missouri River connecting them. Or US-50 if you wish. Aside from the dumbbells anything to the north is a lot like Iowa and anything to the South is much like northern Arkansas -- OK, West Virginia. Except for the toll-booths and length you could hardly tell the West Virginia Turnpike from I-44 between St. Louis and Springfield. St. Louis and Kansas City are nasty places in which to live for poverty, high crime, and low educational achievement... stereotypical Rust Belt.    

Is there a spread on approval and disapproval? There was a poll of Arkansas that had 50% disapproval in Arkansas. (50% approval for Trump in Arkansas would indicate big trouble for him! Trump should be up 55-42 or higher in Arkansas if he is to even be close nationally. At least that poll came from an entity that has done fairly regular polling of Arkansas, and it has typically been favorable to Republicans in Arkansas -- nothing to ever tease us with the idea that Arkansas could be close for any Democrat for at least ten years.

There is no reason to believe that Joe Biden ever was a good match for the Mountain South (Ozarks and central and southern Appalachia), so if the numbers are bad for Trump, then the fault lies with Trump.  

[pbrower2a]

If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

[pbrower2a]

If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

If anything, if Missouri is close, Iowa is gone for Trump.

Obvious. Iowa is a must-win for Trump, but not a must-win for Biden. Take Hillary Clinton's wins, and if Biden wins Michigan (Michigan looks gone for Trump) and Pennsylvania, then Iowa is the smallest state in electoral votes that reasonably has any chance of deciding the election for Biden, at least based upon the state's recent history. Sure, a state with three electoral votes such as Montana, Alaska, or either Dakota would defeat Trump -- but only one of those states has voted for a Democratic nominee for President after 1964. The two often wayward second Congressional districts would also put Biden at 270 if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania with Trump flipping nothing toward him... but that is a 'low-likelihood' event.

Missouri used to vote Democratic except in Republican blowouts. That is over.