Like others have said, even if you adjust for the fact that this is an internal and give however many points to Trump, it'll still be a drop off from his 19 point win in 2016.
Missouri's going to swing left in a big way from 2016. Almost certainly not enough to flip, but a smaller margin of victory than Romney 2012 is looking increasingly likely.
I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.
And Kanter lost by 2 in 2016 even as Trump cleaned up. Perhaps Missouri is more elastic than people thought? Maybe a guy like Biden has a significantly better shot than either Hillary or Obama 2012? Especially if he really is winning nationwide as much as the polls suggest.
There's some elasticity here. It's not Florida. Not yet, at least. It's mostly concentrated in the Leadbelt areas south of St. Louis that Obama won in 2008 and the Kansas City suburbs. I imagine 2016 is the most Republican the state will ever be, as it falls into the gap between the rural shift and the suburban shift.
