MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)

[Alben Barkley]

Hahahahahaha

Even if it's not accurate, even if it's 10 points off, this is terrible for Trump.

Yet Galloway is down 7?!

Usually downballots outperform the upballots.  Are they sure they didn't mix those races up?

There's nothing "usual" about Trump. I don't find it at all hard to believe he'd be underperforming a state's governor, especially now.

[Alben Barkley]

We've already had MO polls showing Trump with pretty pathetic single digit leads in MO. Even if this one's a total outlier, you'd expect one to show Biden in the lead at some point if Trump really is only up by single digits.

[Alben Barkley]

Missouri voting to the left of Wisconsin...

Are you comparing just this one outlier internal poll to just that trash Trafalgar poll? Otherwise I have no idea where you're getting that from. Last good WI poll (NYT) had Biden up 11.

[Alben Barkley]

I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.

And Kanter lost by 2 in 2016 even as Trump cleaned up. Perhaps Missouri is more elastic than people thought? Maybe a guy like Biden has a significantly better shot than either Hillary or Obama 2012? Especially if he really is winning nationwide as much as the polls suggest.

[Alben Barkley]

Missouri voting to the left of Wisconsin...

Are you comparing just this one outlier internal poll to just that trash Trafalgar poll? Otherwise I have no idea where you're getting that from. Last good WI poll (NYT) had Biden up 11.

Yes, I’m quoting two outlier polls sarcastically.

OK then, just making sure you weren't actually saying you think the state of the race in Wisconsin is less than Biden +2 overall right now. You never know around here with the Titanium R WI meme.

[Alben Barkley]

MO could definitely be single figures at this point but I don’t buy Biden winning a state that tossed out a D incumbent senator in 2018.

So you think Florida is safe R then?

[Alben Barkley]

MO is almost certainly not competitive, but the fact that you can even get a poll like this shows just what a gigantic landslide 2008 would have been if a "generic D" like Biden would have been nominated then. The country is too polarized now though.

Interesting, I think Obama did very well, the big difference is McCain was an acceptable candidate for most Republicans. Bush running for a third term would have done worse, as Trump looks to do badly.

Obama did well, but I recall a study suggesting a generic (read: white) Democrat "should" have done even better given all the factors going against the GOP that year. I'm pretty sure Clinton or Edwards definitely would have won Missouri, at least.

[Alben Barkley]

MO could definitely be single figures at this point but I don’t buy Biden winning a state that tossed out a D incumbent senator in 2018.

So you think Florida is safe R then?

Florida is a completely different ballgame. Always competitive in all races, more ancestrally Republican downballot in some areas, and even then McCaskill lost by more than Nelson.

Oh I agree. I just thought that was a bit of a blanket statement thanks to Florida. Also it's possible this year will be an even more favorable Democratic climate than 2018 -- poll today showed Dems have a 14 point lead in the generic Congressional ballot, never mind Biden's double digit leads.

[Alben Barkley]

Outlier for now until corroborated.

Missouri is basically divided as if it were dumbbells in Kansas City and St. Louis with a bar at the Missouri River connecting them. Or US-50 if you wish. Aside from the dumbbells anything to the north is a lot like Iowa and anything to the South is much like northern Arkansas -- OK, West Virginia. Except for the toll-booths and length you could hardly tell the West Virginia Turnpike from I-44 between St. Louis and Springfield. St. Louis and Kansas City are nasty places in which to live for poverty, high crime, and low educational achievement... stereotypical Rust Belt.    

Is there a spread on approval and disapproval? There was a poll of Arkansas that had 50% disapproval in Arkansas. (50% approval for Trump in Arkansas would indicate big trouble for him! Trump should be up 55-42 or higher in Arkansas if he is to even be close nationally. At least that poll came from an entity that has done fairly regular polling of Arkansas, and it has typically been favorable to Republicans in Arkansas -- nothing to ever tease us with the idea that Arkansas could be close for any Democrat for at least ten years.

There is no reason to believe that Joe Biden ever was a good match for the Mountain South (Ozarks and central and southern Appalachia), so if the numbers are bad for Trump, then the fault lies with Trump.  

Well he's done a lot better there than Hillary (2016) and Obama did in the primaries. As I mentioned in that thread, he ended up doing better in Kentucky than any Dem candidate since 2000, including unopposed Obama in 2012 when "uncommitted" got 42% of the vote and won a number of counties. Similar situation in West Virginia. He also did almost as well in Missouri even when the primary was still being contested, winning over 60% and every county.

Honestly, not out of the question he's the best fit for the region since Gore if not Bill Clinton. Doesn't mean he will actually win these states, of course, but could explain some of these polls showing the margins a lot closer than expected.