MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)

[wbrocks67]

We've already had MO polls showing Trump with pretty pathetic single digit leads in MO. Even if this one's a total outlier, you'd expect one to show Biden in the lead at some point if Trump really is only up by single digits.

Yeah, I mean this would be HUGE, but I don't think people realize how badly Trump could be doing in these states when he's potentially down double digits nationwide

[wbrocks67]

Also, if this is a Galloway internal, they would have no reason to make up rosier scenarios for Biden if Galloway herself couldn't get above -7 in her own poll?

[wbrocks67]

Also, even if this poll is 10% off, and Trump's lead is, say 8%, that's still off 11% from his 2016 win. So whether this poll is largely off still shows he's cratering, even in states that he won bigly in 2016

[wbrocks67]

Considering we've now seen polls from IN-05 where it went from Trump +12 to Biden +10 and in TX-06 where it went from Trump +10 to tied, I don't see how a poll with a close race in MO is really *that* hard to believe right now.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.

[wbrocks67]

The only world where Missouri is competitive is a world where Biden is winning the national popular vote by probably at least 15 points, and perhaps more like 20.

Dems won by 8-9 in 2018 and McCasill only lost by 5. If Biden is up 10-12 nationwide, not hard to see MO being competitive.