MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)

[Skye]

X Doubt.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1277971785531572225

Reflects my views pretty well.  Continue to take partisan polls with a grain of salt, but I wouldn't be surprised to see large upsets on election day based on the national mood.

[Brittain33]

Haha haha haha nice try.

[Brittain33]

Missouri voting to the left of Wisconsin...

[soundchaser]

What else would flip in a scenario like this? Kansas? Montana? Indiana? We'd almost certainly be looking at less than 100 electoral votes for Trump.

[Tender Branson]

MO was relatively close until 2008, which is not a long time ago.

And Biden was on that ticket as well, when it was within 1%.

There's a chance that 2016 was a huge outlier in favour of Trump in several states, because Hillary was such a scarecrow to rural people.

But we'll see ...

It's probably not close this year, but Trump+5 or something.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.

[Alben Barkley]

Missouri voting to the left of Wisconsin...

Are you comparing just this one outlier internal poll to just that trash Trafalgar poll? Otherwise I have no idea where you're getting that from. Last good WI poll (NYT) had Biden up 11.

[Alben Barkley]

I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.

And Kanter lost by 2 in 2016 even as Trump cleaned up. Perhaps Missouri is more elastic than people thought? Maybe a guy like Biden has a significantly better shot than either Hillary or Obama 2012? Especially if he really is winning nationwide as much as the polls suggest.

[Brittain33]

Missouri voting to the left of Wisconsin...

Are you comparing just this one outlier internal poll to just that trash Trafalgar poll? Otherwise I have no idea where you're getting that from. Last good WI poll (NYT) had Biden up 11.

Yes, I’m quoting two outlier polls sarcastically.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Please don't get my hopes up like this.

[Person Man]

I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.

And Kanter lost by 2 in 2016 even as Trump cleaned up. Perhaps Missouri is more elastic than people thought? Maybe a guy like Biden has a significantly better shot than either Hillary or Obama 2012? Especially if he really is winning nationwide as much as the polls suggest.

What would the map and pv look like if Biden was able to even get Kerry numbers with non-pocs and Obama 2012 numbers with pocs?

I would think 70*.45 + .30*.79? 31.5 + 23.7  = 55.2? Maybe that is the absolute ceiling for Democrats.

[libertpaulian]

Good news for Jill Schupp?

[Alben Barkley]

Missouri voting to the left of Wisconsin...

Are you comparing just this one outlier internal poll to just that trash Trafalgar poll? Otherwise I have no idea where you're getting that from. Last good WI poll (NYT) had Biden up 11.

Yes, I’m quoting two outlier polls sarcastically.

OK then, just making sure you weren't actually saying you think the state of the race in Wisconsin is less than Biden +2 overall right now. You never know around here with the Titanium R WI meme.

[Yellowhammer]

We're looking at a 1980 scenario

[swf541]

We're looking at a 1980 scenario

This.

And the pandemic is clearly worsening, the economy will get worse in all likelihood between now and November and Trump seems to be daily trying his best to distract the public in the worst ways plausible.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

MO is almost certainly not competitive, but the fact that you can even get a poll like this shows just what a gigantic landslide 2008 would have been if a "generic D" like Biden would have been nominated then. The country is too polarized now though.

[Brittain33]

MO is almost certainly not competitive, but the fact that you can even get a poll like this shows just what a gigantic landslide 2008 would have been if a "generic D" like Biden would have been nominated then. The country is too polarized now though.

Interesting, I think Obama did very well, the big difference is McCain was an acceptable candidate for most Republicans. Bush running for a third term would have done worse, as Trump looks to do badly.

[YE]

MO could definitely be single figures at this point but I don’t buy Biden winning a state that tossed out a D incumbent senator in 2018.

[Alben Barkley]

MO could definitely be single figures at this point but I don’t buy Biden winning a state that tossed out a D incumbent senator in 2018.

So you think Florida is safe R then?

[Alben Barkley]

MO is almost certainly not competitive, but the fact that you can even get a poll like this shows just what a gigantic landslide 2008 would have been if a "generic D" like Biden would have been nominated then. The country is too polarized now though.

Interesting, I think Obama did very well, the big difference is McCain was an acceptable candidate for most Republicans. Bush running for a third term would have done worse, as Trump looks to do badly.

Obama did well, but I recall a study suggesting a generic (read: white) Democrat "should" have done even better given all the factors going against the GOP that year. I'm pretty sure Clinton or Edwards definitely would have won Missouri, at least.

[CookieDamage]

Like others have said, even if you adjust for the fact that this is an internal and give however many points to Trump, it'll still be a drop off from his 19 point win in 2016.

[YE]

MO could definitely be single figures at this point but I don’t buy Biden winning a state that tossed out a D incumbent senator in 2018.

So you think Florida is safe R then?

Florida is a completely different ballgame. Always competitive in all races, more ancestrally Republican downballot in some areas, and even then McCaskill lost by more than Nelson.

[Alben Barkley]

MO could definitely be single figures at this point but I don’t buy Biden winning a state that tossed out a D incumbent senator in 2018.

So you think Florida is safe R then?

Florida is a completely different ballgame. Always competitive in all races, more ancestrally Republican downballot in some areas, and even then McCaskill lost by more than Nelson.

Oh I agree. I just thought that was a bit of a blanket statement thanks to Florida. Also it's possible this year will be an even more favorable Democratic climate than 2018 -- poll today showed Dems have a 14 point lead in the generic Congressional ballot, never mind Biden's double digit leads.

[Hope For A New Era]

Like others have said, even if you adjust for the fact that this is an internal and give however many points to Trump, it'll still be a drop off from his 19 point win in 2016.

Missouri's going to swing left in a big way from 2016. Almost certainly not enough to flip, but a smaller margin of victory than Romney 2012 is looking increasingly likely.

I mean, McCaskill lost by 5 in 2018. Biden is a much better candidate and fit for the state. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where it happens.

And Kanter lost by 2 in 2016 even as Trump cleaned up. Perhaps Missouri is more elastic than people thought? Maybe a guy like Biden has a significantly better shot than either Hillary or Obama 2012? Especially if he really is winning nationwide as much as the polls suggest.

There's some elasticity here. It's not Florida. Not yet, at least. It's mostly concentrated in the Leadbelt areas south of St. Louis that Obama won in 2008 and the Kansas City suburbs. I imagine 2016 is the most Republican the state will ever be, as it falls into the gap between the rural shift and the suburban shift.