GA - PPP (D): Collins +2 (runoff) Collins +2 (jungle primary)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PPP/End Citizens United
June 25-26, 2020
734 registered voters
MoE: 3.6%

With undecided voters:

Collins vs. Warnock
Collins 43%
Warnock 41%
Undecided 17%

Loeffler vs. Warnock
Warnock 43%
Loeffler 40%
Undecided 17%

Jungle primary
Collins 23%
Loeffler 21%
Warnock 20%
Lieberman 11%
Tarver 3%
Undecided 22%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Will tarver get out ever?

This is the one I'd worry about. Warnock's only led Lieberman for two consecutive polls; if that remains consistent over the next few polls, and all of my priors suggest it should, I'd say there's a good chance Lieberman pulls out with maximal gain in influence for the next electoral cycle. Tarver staying in the race while remaining in the electoral doldrums is a little bit more ominous in terms of implications about how difficult it'd be for the DSCC to budge him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Isn't this a run-off? Why are you guys all obsessed with Lieberman dropping out? He'll come in fourth place, endorse Warnock, and then 99% of his voters will support Warnock in the run-off.

It's only a runoff involving Warnock if he places within the top two (i.e. no GOP lockout) and does not get over 50% (which would be beneficial as runoffs tend to be bad for Democratic turnout and I imagine that would be especially true if Biden had won the presidential election).