GA - PPP (D): Collins +2 (runoff) Collins +2 (jungle primary)
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  GA - PPP (D): Collins +2 (runoff) Collins +2 (jungle primary)
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Author Topic: GA - PPP (D): Collins +2 (runoff) Collins +2 (jungle primary)  (Read 2007 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 29, 2020, 08:23:27 AM »

Runoff

Collins 43
Warnock 41

Warnock 43
Loeffler 40

Jungle primary

Collins 23
Loeffler 21
Warnock 20
Lieberman 11
Tarver 3

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/707865?unlock=FQZ9WISMGXW72NOC
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2020, 08:24:54 AM »

Glad to see Warnock up a bit, seems like he's starting to get traction. Which means Liebermann really needs to drop out so Dems can consolidate.

Favorabilities:

Doug Collins: 34/35 (-1)
Raphael Warnock: 32/33 (-1)
Kelly Loeffler: 29/43 (-14)

Warnock also leads Loeffler by 2 in a matchup.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2020, 08:31:22 AM »

PPP/End Citizens United
June 25-26, 2020
734 registered voters
MoE: 3.6%

With undecided voters:

Collins vs. Warnock
Collins 43%
Warnock 41%
Undecided 17%

Loeffler vs. Warnock
Warnock 43%
Loeffler 40%
Undecided 17%

Jungle primary
Collins 23%
Loeffler 21%
Warnock 20%
Lieberman 11%
Tarver 3%
Undecided 22%
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2020, 09:16:56 AM »

Do remember that the runoff happens among a completely different electorate, a poll of the November electorate is unlikely to look the same.
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OneJ
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2020, 09:17:43 AM »

Oh I really hope Republicans end up nominating Loeffler. Also good to see Warnock seemingly pulling away.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2020, 10:25:14 AM »

Quote
Support for Warnock increased substantially when respondents were informed of his background as the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, the former pulpit of Martin Luther King Jr., that he is one of 11 children raised in a public housing project and that he is the first in his family to graduate from college.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/505001-doug-collins-leads-kelly-loeffler-by-2-points-in-georgia-senate-race

Told folks that the Black candidate who is the pastor of MLK's church and endorsed by the Stacey Abrams machine would not need to step aside for some white dude who has no receipts in the Black community or Democratic Party.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2020, 11:44:05 AM »

This sounds like about exactly what one would expect (with the exception of the primary: get out, Lieberman!). Wish they'd also polled Ossoff.
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Gracile
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2020, 11:51:09 AM »

This sounds like about exactly what one would expect (with the exception of the primary: get out, Lieberman!). Wish they'd also polled Ossoff.

They literally polled that race earlier this month:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=379075.0
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2020, 01:39:33 PM »

Not bad. Lieberman needs to drop out. He's just taking votes away from Warnock, who happens to be a much better and stronger candidate. Go, Rev Warnock!
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Horus
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2020, 03:26:58 PM »

Lieberman is gonna ruin this. Ugh. Like father, like son.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2020, 09:31:15 PM »

Will tarver get out ever?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2020, 09:36:20 PM »


This is the one I'd worry about. Warnock's only led Lieberman for two consecutive polls; if that remains consistent over the next few polls, and all of my priors suggest it should, I'd say there's a good chance Lieberman pulls out with maximal gain in influence for the next electoral cycle. Tarver staying in the race while remaining in the electoral doldrums is a little bit more ominous in terms of implications about how difficult it'd be for the DSCC to budge him.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2020, 09:21:37 AM »

Lieberman is gonna ruin this. Ugh. Like father, like son.

Ain't that the truth.  He's fine with letting a conservative GOP firebrand eek out a win if it denies any chance of escaping end-stage capitalism.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2020, 09:40:57 AM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator (Special) by Public Policy Polling on 2020-06-25

Summary: D: 41%, R: 43%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2020, 09:46:19 AM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator (Special) by Public Policy Polling on 2020-06-26

Summary: D: 43%, R: 40%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2020, 12:30:54 PM »

Lieberman is gonna ruin this. Ugh. Like father, like son.
Yeah. I think we can get everybody out except lieberman
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2020, 07:23:33 PM »

I would really appreciate if there were no Senators named Collins taking office next year.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2020, 07:35:39 PM »

Isn't this a run-off? Why are you guys all obsessed with Lieberman dropping out? He'll come in fourth place, endorse Warnock, and then 99% of his voters will support Warnock in the run-off.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2020, 07:37:50 PM »

Isn't this a run-off? Why are you guys all obsessed with Lieberman dropping out? He'll come in fourth place, endorse Warnock, and then 99% of his voters will support Warnock in the run-off.

It's only a runoff involving Warnock if he places within the top two (i.e. no GOP lockout) and does not get over 50% (which would be beneficial as runoffs tend to be bad for Democratic turnout and I imagine that would be especially true if Biden had won the presidential election).
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2020, 01:22:13 PM »

@ Lieberman
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Canis
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« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2020, 02:21:36 PM »

For all the dems here who would you support in the worst case scenario of a Collins-Loeffler runoff? As much as I disagree with Collins on the issues I feel he would prob be a less corrupt and as awful as kelly but im really curious to see what the other dems here would do
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2020, 03:17:31 PM »

For all the dems here who would you support in the worst case scenario of a Collins-Loeffler runoff? As much as I disagree with Collins on the issues I feel he would prob be a less corrupt and as awful as kelly but im really curious to see what the other dems here would do

I would just leave it blank tbh but if I had to, Iíd vote for Collins. Idt he can win the seat when itís up in 2 years anyway.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2020, 10:39:23 AM »

For all the dems here who would you support in the worst case scenario of a Collins-Loeffler runoff? As much as I disagree with Collins on the issues I feel he would prob be a less corrupt and as awful as kelly but im really curious to see what the other dems here would do
No one. They both suck and will be equally terrible for our state.

I think whoever runs against them in 2022 can beat either one of them especially with an Abrams-Kemp rematch on the ballot.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2020, 10:51:44 AM »

For all the dems here who would you support in the worst case scenario of a Collins-Loeffler runoff? As much as I disagree with Collins on the issues I feel he would prob be a less corrupt and as awful as kelly but im really curious to see what the other dems here would do
No one. They both suck and will be equally terrible for our state.

I think whoever runs against them in 2022 can beat either one of them especially with an Abrams-Kemp rematch on the ballot.

You think either could lose even in a Biden midterm?
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OneJ
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« Reply #24 on: July 08, 2020, 06:17:35 PM »

For all the dems here who would you support in the worst case scenario of a Collins-Loeffler runoff? As much as I disagree with Collins on the issues I feel he would prob be a less corrupt and as awful as kelly but im really curious to see what the other dems here would do
No one. They both suck and will be equally terrible for our state.

I think whoever runs against them in 2022 can beat either one of them especially with an Abrams-Kemp rematch on the ballot.

You think either could lose even in a Biden midterm?

Given how the stateís been trending, itís arguable that Dems have a better chance at gaining a Senate seat that year. Remember that GA swung D in 2014 of all years and has been consistently shifting D ever since.
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