Georgia (PPP): Biden +4

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1277591779559309313

[Alben Barkley]

But it’s just not there yet.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

PPP/End Citizens United
June 25-26, 2020
734 registered voters
MoE: 3.6%

Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Undecided 6%

[Buzz]

Skeptical of the spread but GA very well may be the closest state this year.

[Inmate Trump]

Lieberman and Tarver need to drop out.

[Pollster]

Would be hilarious if Republicans ran Loeffler against Warnock.

[Ferguson97]

Skeptical but optimistic

[One Term Floridian]

Lmfao!

[redjohn]

Very encouraging. I think +4 would be a giant swing, but with Abrams nearly edging it out in 2018 (and turnout among voters favorable to Biden certainly being way higher than in 2016 and 2018), there's a very good chance he flips GA if the national environment is favorable.

GA experts, is there any chance he'd carry GA without also winning FL and NC?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Very encouraging. I think +4 would be a giant swing, but with Abrams nearly edging it out in 2018 (and turnout among voters favorable to Biden certainly being way higher than in 2016 and 2018), there's a very good chance he flips GA if the national environment is favorable.

GA experts, is there any chance he'd carry GA without also winning FL and NC?

I think FL will definitely be to the left of GA, and NC to the right. NC isn't exactly trending blue because there are a lot of rural areas that are trending red, and the suburbs in NC are blood red. GA's Atlanta metro, however, is absolutely going blue at a breakneck pace.

As for FL, Trump has alienated a lot of the cuban GOP leaners. FL shouldn't be a difficult pick up for Biden despite the poor performance by dems in 2018. Biden will do well with old white voters, and cuban voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very encouraging. I think +4 would be a giant swing, but with Abrams nearly edging it out in 2018 (and turnout among voters favorable to Biden certainly being way higher than in 2016 and 2018), there's a very good chance he flips GA if the national environment is favorable.

GA experts, is there any chance he'd carry GA without also winning FL and NC?

I think FL will definitely be to the left of GA, and NC to the right. NC isn't exactly trending blue because there are a lot of rural areas that are trending red, and the suburbs in NC are blood red. GA's Atlanta metro, however, is absolutely going blue at a breakneck pace.

As for FL, Trump has alienated a lot of the cuban GOP leaners. FL shouldn't be a difficult pick up for Biden despite the poor performance by dems in 2018. Biden will do well with old white voters, and cuban voters.

I agree with this.  A few months ago I had FL > NC > GA in order of likelihood to flip, but since then I've been persuaded that things are changing faster in GA than I thought, and now I think it's at least as likely to flip as NC is.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

But it’s just not there yet.

There's simply no modern precedent for Democrats winning Georgia. They never won it in 28 years, so don't even try.

We can't risk it. Must play it safe and get that 40% margin in MI/PA/WI

[brucejoel99]

inb4 MillennialModerate says Georgia is Safe R because it's the fool's gold to end all fool's gold.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Still wondering when GA is going to flip blue on the betting markets. It's gotta happen soon.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams came within 1.5 in a midterm year. The natural higher turnout of presidential elections always made this a Tossup. Metro Atlanta is going to reject Trump by insurmountable margins.

[emailking]

But it’s just not there yet.

There's simply no modern precedent for Democrats winning Georgia. They never won it in 28 years, so don't even try.

We can't risk it. Must play it safe and get that 40% margin in MI/PA/WI

If all you do is play it safe, you might lose a state you're playing it safe on, while also losing a reach state you might have won with some effort.

[AGA]

Georgia could very well vote to the left of North Carolina.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But it’s just not there yet.

There's simply no modern precedent for Democrats winning Georgia. They never won it in 28 years, so don't even try.

We can't risk it. Must play it safe and get that 40% margin in MI/PA/WI

If all you do is play it safe, you might lose a state you're playing it safe on, while also losing a reach state you might have won with some effort.

Monstro is mocking the idiots that think it’s wise to pump hundreds of millions of dollars into only PA, MI, WI, and AZ and not DARE waste any money on “reach” states like FL, NC, GA and TX

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Georgia could very well vote to the left of North Carolina.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on this.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

  So 51% of Georgia respondents didn't say they would vote for Biden? Great news for Trump. All the undecideds will break for him because they will. I almost feel sorry for the Biden campaign, really.

[Ferguson97]

Georgia could very well vote to the left of North Carolina.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on this.

I wouldn't. Democrats are being massively underrated in North Carolina, and voter suppression will be too much in Georgia.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia could very well vote to the left of North Carolina.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on this.

I wouldn't. Democrats are being massively underrated in North Carolina, and voter suppression will be too much in Georgia.

As mentioned earlier, Republicans still have a lot of room to grow in rural North Carolina where Trump didn’t hit 80% in a single county. The suburbs are a lot redder in NC as well and moving left at a much slower pace than the Atlanta bubble . Republicans are damn near maxed out in their Georgia strongholds

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Georgia could very well vote to the left of North Carolina.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on this.

I wouldn't. Democrats are being massively underrated in North Carolina, and voter suppression will be too much in Georgia.

Georgia was one of the few Romney states to trend D in 2016, NC wasn't. The suburban realignment is much more apparent in Georgia, in fact one could argue that metro Atlanta is the perfect microcosm of this phenomenon. Both states will have very similar margins regardless, but I'll take my chances with GA

[Progressive Pessimist]

More evidence for battleground Georgia! Oh wait, this is from PPP and that means it's too Democratic and therefore Trump is leading, that's right. I apologize. Georgia is still safe R.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

But it’s just not there yet.

There's simply no modern precedent for Democrats winning Georgia. They never won it in 28 years, so don't even try.

We can't risk it. Must play it safe and get that 40% margin in MI/PA/WI

If all you do is play it safe, you might lose a state you're playing it safe on, while also losing a reach state you might have won with some effort.

Monstro is mocking the idiots that think it’s wise to pump hundreds of millions of dollars into only PA, MI, WI, and AZ and not DARE waste any money on “reach” states like FL, NC, GA and TX

Hell, if Sinema hadn't won her Senate race, I'd wager AZ being in the GA/TX column too. Even with Biden leading in all but 2 polls this year. Thankfully, she did win and it's not as tough a sell as it would've been.

Honestly, I'd trade priorities between NC & GA. Invest in both states' Senate races, but start ramping up resources in those Atlanta suburbs