Is Arkansas a swing state?

[°Leprechaun]

Some say Kerry can't win Arkansas, but the polls show it as close. Although it leans Republican, I would not be surprised to see Kerry win, even in a close election.
Some say Kerry won't win any states in the south.
I say that it is too soon to make that prediction.

[World Order]

Bill Clinton publishes his book, he will be in Little Rock in November to open the library. Some will feel Gore was robbed. nader isnt involved in arkansas really so i think 25% chance kerry has of winning arkansas. maybe more depending on bills role in the summer

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas has picked the winner in every Presidential Election since 1960 with the exception of 1968 (when it went for Wallace).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

yes.

the only people who deny it is are the deluded folks who think every single person who lives in the south hates Kerry.

[© tweed]

Yes, although I think Bush will ultimately win it by 4-5%.

[opebo]

No.  Not even close.  Neither is Tennessee.  The only swing states in the South are WV and FL, and both will go comfortably for Bush anyway.

[The Dowager Mod]

NO.

[WalterMitty]

it's funny, ive heard that kerry has a pitiful organization in place in ohio.  by all means, keep blowing money and time in arkansas, louisiana and colorado, john kerry.

[??????????]

A northern Liberal wins Arkansas when a Southern Conservative wins Massachusetts.


1984  


1984

1984

[English]

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas is a swing state because it almost always votes for the winner

[© tweed]

Arkansas is NOT as conservative as MA is liberal

[??????????]

Arkansas is NOT as conservative as MA is liberal

Where are all these so called moderates from Arkansas from? Most of the ones I know are some of the most down to earth people I know.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

well they obviously are there considering Gore won 2 out it's 4 districts. And one of the other 2 districts is held by Rep. Vic Snyder, who is rather liberal. Conversely, the Democrats hold every House seat in Massachusetts and every one was won by Gore. Arkansas isn't even close to MA.

[angus]

I say that it is too soon to make that prediction.

I agree with you.

Nevertheless, predictions are fun.  Here's mine:

Bush wins Arkansas.  Kerry wins New Jersey.  

[© tweed]

Where are all these so called moderates from Arkansas from? Most of the ones I know are some of the most down to earth people I know.

So, you're saying...AR is just as conservative as MA is liberal?  Gore won MA by 27%, Bush won AR by 6% (I want to say, numbers off of the top of my head).

[??????????]

Where are all these so called moderates from Arkansas from? Most of the ones I know are some of the most down to earth people I know.

Maybe not AS conservative but they will march in lockstep with the rest of the south as they are a southern state with southern roots. Just as N.England is going to stick together and vote Kerry.

So, you're saying...AR is just as conservative as MA is liberal?  Gore won MA by 27%, Bush won AR by 6% (I want to say, numbers off of the top of my head).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But New England didn't last time. If New Hampshire can vote for Bush in 200, I don't see why Arkansas can't vote for Kerry.

And Arkansas has elected liberals before, such as Sen. Dale Bumpers and a certain very popular 3 term governor.

[angus]

can we assume you meant the popular six-term governor, Bill Clinton?  If so, then you have redefined liberal.  Bill Clinton is about as Liberal as I am conservative.  Think again hoss.  

[classical liberal]

I hate to say it, but Bubba governed as a moderate in AR.  He swung left after the special interests in the national Dem party had their way with him.

[angus]

I hate to say it, but Bubba governed as a moderate in AR.  He swung left after the special interests in the national Dem party had their way with him.

I'd go even further and say he didn't really swing that far left even during the 92 primaries.  This guy is not particularly "liberal."  In fact, he is more conservative in many ways than Bush.  Particularly in the ways that really matter to voters like you, wouldn't you say?

[12th Doctor]

I hate to say it, but Bubba governed as a moderate in AR.  He swung left after the special interests in the national Dem party had their way with him.

I'd go even further and say he didn't really swing that far left even during the 92 primaries.  This guy is not particularly "liberal."  In fact, he is more conservative in many ways than Bush.  Particularly in the ways that really matter to voters like you, wouldn't you say?

Clinton governed as a liberal (except on a few issues) and campaigned as a moderate.

[ian]

Arkansas is not a swing state, but I think it will go safely Democrat when the runner is a moderate southerner. Same with Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia & Missouri. The only states in the south that will never go Democrat are South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama & Texas.

SC is supposedly pretty close, though no recent polls prove that assumption.  Mississippi has a large African-American population, so maybe if something could get more of the A/A population to vote, I think MS could one day go Dem.

[khirkhib]

The Swing states are West Virgina, Arkansas, Lousiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Virginia.  Changes the whole paradigm.

[angus]

I hate to say it, but Bubba governed as a moderate in AR.  He swung left after the special interests in the national Dem party had their way with him.

I'd go even further and say he didn't really swing that far left even during the 92 primaries.  This guy is not particularly "liberal."  In fact, he is more conservative in many ways than Bush.  Particularly in the ways that really matter to voters like you, wouldn't you say?

Clinton governed as a liberal (except on a few issues) and campaigned as a moderate.

welfare reform.  balanced budgets.  leaving in place 30-year-old EPA standards, even under duress, till his last week.  the 90s were a very business-friendly time.

my point is don't put bubba in the same box as lyndon johnson.  clinton ran much further to the right than any democrat, and some republicans, and governed a wee bit closer to his campaign promises than any president since reagan, and I'm including the current one.