WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1

[Gass3268]

This is believable. I currently have Trump winning Wisconsin but losing the EC.

Yeah... no.

The age breakdown they have is bonkers.

They have 18-29 at 5% - it was 14% in 2018 and 17% in 2016.

They have 50+ at 68% - it was 57% in 2018 and 52% in 2016.

Marquette numbers from this week were essentially 2018 numbers.

I almost wonder if Trafalger here is trying to produce numbers that get the Trump campaign to take them on as a client.

[Gass3268]

I remember when these guys had Kemp up 12.

There are some pollsters and methodologies that work in one part of the country but not others.

Their age sample isn't in a realistic realm of possibilities.

[Gass3268]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

I don't doubt that their last poll of the cycle will be fine, but this sample is trash. There is no universe where over 2/3rds of voters will be people over 50 and only three percent black.