WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1
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  WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1
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Author Topic: WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1  (Read 4500 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: June 28, 2020, 07:30:42 PM »

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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2020, 07:32:17 PM »

Ah the gold standard returns.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2020, 07:35:45 PM »

68% of the sample 50+ years old?
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Horus
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2020, 07:36:00 PM »

This is believable. I currently have Trump winning Wisconsin but losing the EC.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2020, 07:36:36 PM »

I remember when these guys had Kemp up 12.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2020, 07:36:54 PM »

IDK, something seems fishy about these Trafalgar polls. They haven't polled much this cycle (really at all from what I've seen), and now these random polls showing Trump basically tied in Michigan and Wisconsin are coming at the same exact time that the averages are showing him with nearly 10% leads in those states just seems very coincidental timing. Not to mention they don't release any crosstabs.

It would be one thing if half the polls were showing one thing, but we've now had multiple high quality polls in MI and WI that line up with national polls right now, so these polls seem... suspicious
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2020, 07:38:16 PM »

And true to form, RCP has this posted up right away.  Probably took them a couple of milliseconds.
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2020, 07:38:53 PM »

What sort of professional polling group does something like this? Junk it!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2020, 07:39:50 PM »

This is believable. I currently have Trump winning Wisconsin but losing the EC.

Yeah... no.

The age breakdown they have is bonkers.

They have 18-29 at 5% - it was 14% in 2018 and 17% in 2016.

They have 50+ at 68% - it was 57% in 2018 and 52% in 2016.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2020, 07:45:22 PM »

Theres always one.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2020, 07:49:24 PM »

It feels like Trafalgar is purposely putting these out there to set a narrative.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2020, 07:50:26 PM »

It feels like Trafalgar is purposely putting these out there to set a narrative.

It'd be more effective if Marquette and Sienna hadn't just released.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2020, 07:53:31 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if this poll was commissioned to give Trump something to feel good about.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2020, 07:57:09 PM »

This is believable. I currently have Trump winning Wisconsin but losing the EC.

Yeah... no.

The age breakdown they have is bonkers.

They have 18-29 at 5% - it was 14% in 2018 and 17% in 2016.

They have 50+ at 68% - it was 57% in 2018 and 52% in 2016.

Marquette numbers from this week were essentially 2018 numbers.

I almost wonder if Trafalger here is trying to produce numbers that get the Trump campaign to take them on as a client.
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Buzz
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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2020, 08:01:24 PM »

Unlikely but won’t toss.
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WD
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« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2020, 08:02:30 PM »

Trash it
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Hammy
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2020, 08:13:44 PM »

I remember when these guys had Kemp up 12.

There are some pollsters and methodologies that work in one part of the country but not others.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2020, 08:14:31 PM »

I remember when these guys had Kemp up 12.

There are some pollsters and methodologies that work in one part of the country but not others.

Their age sample isn't in a realistic realm of possibilities.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2020, 08:14:41 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if this poll was commissioned to give Trump something to feel good about.

Quite probable.   And of course, you have to take this Robert Cahaly's polling techniques into question.  He's been on Fox and CNN and local Atlanta stations to discuss the "shy Trump" vote.  It's always amazing that he can figure out who these voters are because he is able to create very favorable numbers to the Republican candidate.    
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2020, 08:15:44 PM »

Wisconsin is a tossup.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2020, 08:17:13 PM »

1) This is completely out of line with the other polls we've seen from Wisconsin.
2) Third party is definitely not getting 8% of the vote.

Some of you here should know better.
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AGA
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2020, 08:25:33 PM »

And true to form, RCP has this posted up right away.  Probably took them a couple of milliseconds.

Why is everyone here obsessed with what polls RCP posts?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2020, 08:28:00 PM »

And true to form, RCP has this posted up right away.  Probably took them a couple of milliseconds.

Why is everyone here obsessed with what polls RCP posts?

RCP tends to post polls that favor Trump and the Republicans much quicker than those that favor the Democrats.

RCP definitely has a right wing bias, as shown by their opinion pieces.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2020, 08:36:32 PM »

Throw It in the AverageTM
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2020, 09:02:20 PM »

And true to form, RCP has this posted up right away.  Probably took them a couple of milliseconds.

Why is everyone here obsessed with what polls RCP posts?

Because we are political nerds who demand consistency which RCP does not provide with which polls they input.
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