WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1

[Hammy]

I remember when these guys had Kemp up 12.

There are some pollsters and methodologies that work in one part of the country but not others.

[Hammy]

And true to form, RCP has this posted up right away.  Probably took them a couple of milliseconds.

Why is everyone here obsessed with what polls RCP posts?

Because we are political nerds who demand consistency which RCP does not provide with which polls they input.

[Hammy]

As long as the Biden campaign just doesn't get too cocky during this election. We have 4 1/2 months until Election Day. The real campaign begins after the DNC & RNC, that's when all wheels get rolling for the Election.

He does, at least at the moment, appear that he's treating every swing state like they're down and need to gain ground--this in itself gives me the impression the party learned the right lesson for once, given that Hillary appeared to take the Rust Belt for granted--especially Wisconsin and Michigan.

[Hammy]

But more recently, the Trafalgar Group found Biden ahead by only 1 point in Michigan. Trafalgar was the only pollster to find Trump leading in Michigan in 2016, when he carried the state by about 10,000 votes.

Trafalgar weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called “shy” Trump voters who do not admit to pollsters that they support him. Pollster Robert Cahaly told The Hill there are more of these today than there were four years ago.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504790-where-things-stand-in-13-battleground-states

So they weight according to a bias that has been thoroughly debunked and proven to not exist?

Also they were nowhere near as accurate in 2018 as 2016.

Pretty sure they just lucked out in 2016. Other, better pollsters have adjusted to account for things they missed since then anyway.

They were consistently accurate in Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania with about a 1-2 point bias in favor of whoever won, so it wasn't a fluke--more than likely they're good at polling certain areas and not others. They were wrong on TX/AZ/NV for example and very likely under-polled Hispanics. Given that, it means Wisconsin is a true tossup.

[Hammy]

Glad to know TRUMPISM is alive and well

R+1, within the MoE, by a pollster who was two points more favorable to Trump than reality? Are you posting on behalf of SN?