WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1

[Granite City]

I believe they used to factor in how respondents expect their neighbours to vote (maybe they still do?. The idea being that people would project their real feelings onto their neighbours into that question which doesn't make any sense to me but I imagine they have a better understanding of psychology than I do. My problem is that if you start doing things like that, is it really still polling?

Still, interesting to see their Midwest numbers.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't believe it, but I do believe that Biden should still keep this state as a top priority though, even in spite of better pollsters with better results for him.

[Pulaski]

Probably an outlier, but shows the race is far from sewn up in swing states, even if Biden is the heavy favourite at this point.

[Senator-elect Spark]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1277397012783271936

This is in my election forecast.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1277397012783271936

This is in my election forecast.

If you think that WI is voting for Trump, I doubt it

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-06-25

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Hammy]

But more recently, the Trafalgar Group found Biden ahead by only 1 point in Michigan. Trafalgar was the only pollster to find Trump leading in Michigan in 2016, when he carried the state by about 10,000 votes.

Trafalgar weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called “shy” Trump voters who do not admit to pollsters that they support him. Pollster Robert Cahaly told The Hill there are more of these today than there were four years ago.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504790-where-things-stand-in-13-battleground-states

So they weight according to a bias that has been thoroughly debunked and proven to not exist?

Also they were nowhere near as accurate in 2018 as 2016.

Pretty sure they just lucked out in 2016. Other, better pollsters have adjusted to account for things they missed since then anyway.

They were consistently accurate in Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania with about a 1-2 point bias in favor of whoever won, so it wasn't a fluke--more than likely they're good at polling certain areas and not others. They were wrong on TX/AZ/NV for example and very likely under-polled Hispanics. Given that, it means Wisconsin is a true tossup.

[Wiz in Wis]

People need to stop taking Trafalgar credulously... they are no different than OANN at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In an environment like this I can see WI going R and FL and GA going D

[redjohn]

In an environment like this I can see WI going R and FL and GA going D

This is such a lazy take that has no ground in reality. It's very possible GA goes D, but come on people, Wisconsin is NOT a lean R state and will vote more Democratic than GA this cycle. Democrats have made major inroads in WI, re-elected a Democratic senator by double-digits, defeated a well-known incumbent Governor, and just won a statewide supreme court race by double digits.

Also, Trump's approvals in WI are in the toilet. He won fewer votes than Romney in 2016... Let's stop pretending Wisconsin is going to trend right this year. There's literally no indication it will.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Glad to know TRUMPISM is alive and well

[Hammy]

Glad to know TRUMPISM is alive and well

R+1, within the MoE, by a pollster who was two points more favorable to Trump than reality? Are you posting on behalf of SN?

[Use Your Illusion]

I don't understand why the over-sampling to the 50+ demographic is such a big deal. These are the people who are actually gonna show up to the polls on election day. Young people (and Democrats in general) DO NOT vote to the same level of their poll responses. It's because of reasons like this that I actually take Trafalgar seriously because it's more conventional to sample the demographic that is actually gonna show.


Not to sound a certain kind of way but we're also dealing with Boomers here.... they've dominated politics and voting for 30 years now and they'll be damned if they're gonna give up control now. They will when they're dead.

[Badger]

Glad to know TRUMPISM is alive and well

As long as there are people unoffended at hearing someone Shout "White Power!", trumpism Will Survive.