WI (Trafalgar): Trump +1

[pbrower2a]

This is believable. I currently have Trump winning Wisconsin but losing the EC.

Yeah... no.

The age breakdown they have is bonkers.

They have 18-29 at 5% - it was 14% in 2018 and 17% in 2016.

They have 50+ at 68% - it was 57% in 2018 and 52% in 2016.

That would be valid for Wisconsin in 2010, when Senator Russ Feingold got trounced by someone who has since gotten a reputation as a right-wing extremist and intellectual light-weight within the GOP, which is saying a lot . If one has the same electorate in 2020 in Wisconsin as in 2010, then Trump wins.  This would be possible if no voters over 50 had died since 2010 and that no new young voters entered the electorate.

Of course Trump would win re-election with a 2010 electorate! But not with a 2012 or 2018 electorate.

Trash!  

[Annatar]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

[Devout Centrist]

We're all gonna die!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Into the average but this seems like an outlier.

[CellarDoor]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

I have always taken accuracy numbers (from previous elections) with a grain of salt midway through an election cycle, and put more emphasis on pollsters who have a higher quality rating from FiveThirtyEight.  The reason I put very little stock in accuracy numbers midway through a cycle is that many pollsters are partisan pollsters and I do believe they try to push narratives.  But how can I say that when their final polls from the previous election were pretty good?

The only way we can measure accuracy of a pollster during a cycle is to measure their final poll results against the actual results.  Is that not correct?  It would seem to me that there is no way to hold a pollster accountable for a poll midway through an election cycle because there are no actual results from which to base a comparison.  As such, being the cynical person that I am, I assume that there are partisan pollsters who publish polls infrequently but at opportune times to push narratives midway through election cycles.  Then, as the election gets closer they revert to sound methodology in order to preserve their integrity for future elections.

For those of you with more knowledge of polling than I have, does this theory have merit?  Please let me know if there is something I'm missing.

I appreciate pollsters who are rated highly on FiveThirtyEight due to sound methodology, and those who also put out polls regularly (every month, every week, etc.).

[politics_king]

As long as the Biden campaign just doesn't get too cocky during this election. We have 4 1/2 months until Election Day. The real campaign begins after the DNC & RNC, that's when all wheels get rolling for the Election.

[Minnesota Mike]

Throw it in the average but I have my doubts 7.5% will vote for "Other Party Candidate".

[Nyvin]

I'm skeptical.

[Hammy]

As long as the Biden campaign just doesn't get too cocky during this election. We have 4 1/2 months until Election Day. The real campaign begins after the DNC & RNC, that's when all wheels get rolling for the Election.

He does, at least at the moment, appear that he's treating every swing state like they're down and need to gain ground--this in itself gives me the impression the party learned the right lesson for once, given that Hillary appeared to take the Rust Belt for granted--especially Wisconsin and Michigan.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Good, I hope we get more of these trash polls with terrible methodologies that are clearly meant to be participation trophies for Trump. Makes our people less complacent about voting, and I want Trumpists to think he has a chance. It will make victory that much sweeter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It isnt over yet, this poll proves that WI is still a tossup

[Landslide Lyndon]

Throw it in the average but I have my doubts 7.5% will vote for "Other Party Candidate".

Those cheeseheads love'em some Howie Hawkins.

[Gass3268]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

I don't doubt that their last poll of the cycle will be fine, but this sample is trash. There is no universe where over 2/3rds of voters will be people over 50 and only three percent black.

[Person Man]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

I don't doubt that their last poll of the cycle will be fine, but this sample is trash. There is no universe where over 2/3rds of voters will be people over 50 and only three percent black.

They aren’t going to release a poll here in the end if it’s not a result they want.

I can believe that either that this was a poll meant to show that Trump can still win Wisconsin, like those OAN polls are doing, that people are either just giving up and no longer care about Trump letting Putin wage proxy wars against us, letting the healthcare system collapse, or associating with blatant white supremacy, or that they do and just believe that Trump is this great money guy who has a place for them at the trough of corruption.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

It's just a simple fact that 8% of the WI vote will NOT go to third party candidates.

[super6646]

So +6 Biden instead of +8? Lmfao

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wisconsin is solid Republican thanks to the legacy of the Robert L Follettes (or is that Roberts La Follette?)

[ProudModerate2]

Trafalgar ... a swing and a miss.

[Skye]

What sort of professional polling group does something like this? Junk it!
https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1275277566560043008?s=20

Ummm, PPP loves (or at least it did) to troll a bit on Twitter.

[lfromnj]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Again for Wisconsin just go with Marquette, they provide the best snapshot of current Wisconsin. Therefore Wisconsin is somewhere around +8 Biden rn.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trafalgar? Do they put the telescope to their blind eye when looking for Democrats to poll?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar? Do they put the telescope to their blind eye when looking for Democrats to poll?

No, but we must realize that alot of the polls we have seen have been RV and whenever you see an R doing good in a poll, they poll LV

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1275276195777708033
Irrelevant but I have a feeling the guy behind @ppollingnumbers is more supportive of the GOP than the guy from @politics_polls

[Roronoa D. Law]

But more recently, the Trafalgar Group found Biden ahead by only 1 point in Michigan. Trafalgar was the only pollster to find Trump leading in Michigan in 2016, when he carried the state by about 10,000 votes.

Trafalgar weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called “shy” Trump voters who do not admit to pollsters that they support him. Pollster Robert Cahaly told The Hill there are more of these today than there were four years ago.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504790-where-things-stand-in-13-battleground-states

[LAKISYLVANIA]

According to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

It's just a simple fact that 8% of the WI vote will NOT go to third party candidates.

Those are just people that are undecided, and are hoping for a popular third party candidate, but there won't be any, so they will be forced to choose or just stay home. That being said, the demographics in the polls are way off, and I also believe after staunchly believing Wisconsin will vote Republican, that it will vote Democratic next cycle, but maybe by less than the other rust belt states.