Fox News: Perdue+3, Cunningham+2, Cornyn+10 (GA, NC, TX)
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September 22, 2021, 09:27:23 AM

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  Fox News: Perdue+3, Cunningham+2, Cornyn+10 (GA, NC, TX)
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Author Topic: Fox News: Perdue+3, Cunningham+2, Cornyn+10 (GA, NC, TX)  (Read 924 times)
n1240
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« on: June 25, 2020, 05:07:42 PM »
« edited: June 25, 2020, 05:13:15 PM by n1240 »

GA

Perdue 45
Ossoff  42

NC

Cunningham 39
Tillis 37

TX

Cornyn 46
Hegar 36
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Senator WD
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2020, 05:11:17 PM »

Junk! Perdue should be up by at least 30, due to his godly margins in Cobb and Gwinnett counties
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Senator WD
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2020, 05:12:39 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2020, 05:14:52 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 09:57:51 PM by ON Progressive »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Not really, seems to be a name rec issue given that Trump and Perdue are doing identical here.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2020, 05:17:04 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2020, 05:18:42 PM »

These seem reasonable. I wish they polled the Georgia jungle primary.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2020, 05:24:03 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2020, 05:25:44 PM »

These all seem reasonable.

Iíll get ripped for this but Georgia Senate is Likely R (closer to Safe). Georgia Special is Lean R (closer to Likely).

Cunningham +2 seems right about dead on
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2020, 05:28:10 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.

Isakson had a personal brand in the Atlanta suburbs that Perdue very much does not have. Perdue also has no history of doing all that great in the suburbs. In fact, he did worse in the Atlanta suburbs than Romney 2012! And he was running in an historic red wave!

Don't believe me? These are the shifts from 2012 Pres to 2014 Senate:
Gwinnett County: Romney +9.2 -- Perdue +10.4 (R+1.2)
Cobb County: Romney +12.4 -- Perdue +12.8 (R+0.4)
DeKalb County: Obama +56.6 -- Nunn +58.2 (D+1.6)
Douglas County: Obama +4 -- Nunn +5.7 (D+1.7)
Henry County: Romney +3.3 -- Nunn +0.7 (D+4)
Rockdale County: Obama +16.5 -- Nunn +19 (D+2.5)
Fulton County: Obama +29.7 -- Nunn +31.1 (D+1.4)
Clayton County: Obama +70 -- Nunn +69.1 (R+0.9)
Newton County: Obama +2 -- Nunn +2 (D+<0.1)
Cherokee County: Romney +57.5 -- Perdue +55.2 (D+2.3)
Forsyth County: Romney +62.7 -- Perdue +61.3 (D+1.4)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2020, 05:31:27 PM »

Can we stop for a second and look in amazement at Tillis only getting 37%!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2020, 05:32:18 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.

Isakson had a personal brand in the Atlanta suburbs that Perdue very much does not have. Perdue also has no history of doing all that great in the suburbs. In fact, he did worse in the Atlanta suburbs than Romney 2012! And he was running in an historic red wave!

Don't believe me? These are the shifts from 2012 Pres to 2014 Senate:
Gwinnett County: Romney +9.2 -- Perdue +10.4 (R+1.2)
Cobb County: Romney +12.4 -- Perdue +12.8 (R+0.4)
DeKalb County: Obama +56.6 -- Nunn +58.2 (D+1.6)
Douglas County: Obama +4 -- Nunn +5.7 (D+1.7)
Henry County: Romney +3.3 -- Nunn +0.7 (D+4)
Rockdale County: Obama +16.5 -- Nunn +19 (D+2.5)
Fulton County: Obama +29.7 -- Nunn +31.1 (D+1.4)
Clayton County: Obama +70 -- Nunn +69.1 (R+0.9)
Newton County: Obama +2 -- Nunn +2 (D+<0.1)
Cherokee County: Romney +57.5 -- Perdue +55.2 (D+2.3)
Forsyth County: Romney +62.7 -- Perdue +61.3 (D+1.4)

Not to mention that Democrats didnít even contest Isakson's race.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2020, 05:36:14 PM »

Can we stop for a second and look in amazement at Tillis only getting 37%!

NC Senate elections are cursed lmao. This seat hasnít re-elected an incumbent since 1996. Burrís seat didnít re-elect itís incumbent in evey election between 1974 and 2010. People in NC hate their politicians lol
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2020, 05:46:58 PM »

FŻck you Gwinnett county, if you were not included in the poll, Perdue would be trailing by 20.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2020, 05:49:46 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.

This is true, but even Isakson did worse in 2016, both in the suburbs and in Georgia as a whole, then he had in 2010 and 2004. He only carried Gwinnett County with a plurality (and won by pluralities in Newton and Henry Counties), and won Cobb County by "only" 11 points, where he had won by 30 points six years previously. Given demographic trends since then, and Abrams' major gains in the 2018 midterms, I think even Isakson's 2016 performance would be impossible for Republicans to replicate now.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2020, 06:27:00 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.

Itís a meme here dating back to when Del Tachi told us that Perdue would do a lot better in metro Atlanta than Trump and Kemp. I could see him doing a point or two better in margin, but nothing more than that. The days of ticket-splitting in Georgia by significant amounts are all-but dead. In 2018, the margins in all the races ranged from R+1 (SoS and Gov) to R+6 (the incumbent, non-controversial R incumbent). Perdue isnít the one thatís going to buck that trend
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2020, 06:27:08 PM »

Every Republican senator will get more or less the same number as Trump. For better or worse, after their impeachment vote they are joined at the hip with him.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2020, 06:34:07 PM »

Every Republican senator will get more or less the same number as Trump. For better or worse, after their impeachment vote they are joined at the hip with him.

With Daines and McConnell being the notable exceptions,  I agree
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2020, 06:41:05 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.

This is true, but even Isakson did worse in 2016, both in the suburbs and in Georgia as a whole, then he had in 2010 and 2004. He only carried Gwinnett County with a plurality (and won by pluralities in Newton and Henry Counties), and won Cobb County by "only" 11 points, where he had won by 30 points six years previously. Given demographic trends since then, and Abrams' major gains in the 2018 midterms, I think even Isakson's 2016 performance would be impossible for Republicans to replicate now.

Fair enough. I definitely don't expect Perdue to get Isakson numbers in the suburbs, but I also don't see him running behind Trump there.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2020, 06:45:53 PM »

Every Republican senator will get more or less the same number as Trump. For better or worse, after their impeachment vote they are joined at the hip with him.

With Daines and McConnell being the notable exceptions,  I agree

What about Tillis? Heíll probably run behind by a point or two
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« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2020, 06:54:07 PM »

Every Republican senator will get more or less the same number as Trump. For better or worse, after their impeachment vote they are joined at the hip with him.

With Daines and McConnell being the notable exceptions,  I agree

What about Tillis? Heíll probably run behind by a point or two

Most other Republicans I think will be within 1-2 points of Trump, either behind or ahead (that includes Susan Collins and John Cornyn). John Cornyn is really lucky that if Biden does win Texas, it will likely be by a tiny margin, so he doesnít need so many ticket splitters to hold on.

I should also add a potential Kobach nomination to the listóif heís the nominee, heís going to do significantly worse than Trump. KS-sen goes to a tossup
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2016
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« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2020, 07:01:16 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

People make jokes about it all the time but the fact is that Johnny Isakson far outperformed Trump in 2016 precisely because he did way better in the suburbs. Given Perdue's genericness, it's not hard to imagine him also doing so, though definitely not to the same degree.
Several Republican Senators outran Trump in 2016. Ron Johnson outran him a lot in WI and even Toomey & Burr did.

I expect the same happening in GA and NC. We have several Polls now showing Trump and Biden within two Points of each other. NC is very polarized. Very few Indies there. Tillis could barely hang on here.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2020, 07:02:56 PM »

Every Republican senator will get more or less the same number as Trump. For better or worse, after their impeachment vote they are joined at the hip with him.

With Daines and McConnell being the notable exceptions,  I agree

What about Tillis? Heíll probably run behind by a point or two

Most other Republicans I think will be within 1-2 points of Trump, either behind or ahead (that includes Susan Collins and John Cornyn). John Cornyn is really lucky that if Biden does win Texas, it will likely be by a tiny margin, so he doesnít need so many ticket splitters to hold on.

I should also add a potential Kobach nomination to the listóif heís the nominee, heís going to do significantly worse than Trump. KS-sen goes to a tossup
Really? Iíve seen some people say sheíll ourun him by 3-5 points and that Gideon only wins if Biden is carrying Maine by 5 points or more (which, tbh isnít that hard to do)
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2020, 07:06:21 PM »

Every Republican senator will get more or less the same number as Trump. For better or worse, after their impeachment vote they are joined at the hip with him.

With Daines and McConnell being the notable exceptions,  I agree

What about Tillis? Heíll probably run behind by a point or two

Most other Republicans I think will be within 1-2 points of Trump, either behind or ahead (that includes Susan Collins and John Cornyn). John Cornyn is really lucky that if Biden does win Texas, it will likely be by a tiny margin, so he doesnít need so many ticket splitters to hold on.

I should also add a potential Kobach nomination to the listóif heís the nominee, heís going to do significantly worse than Trump. KS-sen goes to a tossup
Really? Iíve seen some people say sheíll ourun him by 3-5 points and that Gideon only wins if Biden is carrying Maine by 5 points or more (which, tbh isnít that hard to do)

Everyone has their own opinions, and thatís mine. Susan Collins has become such a national joke over the last two years that I donít think anyone takes her ďindependent minded approachĒ gaslighting seriously anymore. One of the few good political moves that Democrats have made of their own accord (read: without a Trump assist) in the last four years is expose Collins as the fraud she is.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2020, 07:13:05 PM »

So does Fox just not push undecided voters anymore? These donít seem like very reliable polls with 20+% undecided voters.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2020, 07:54:53 PM »

Also Strange how Ossoff is underperforming Biden

Perdue probably outperforms Trump. He is less divisive and thus will probably do better in the Atlanta suburbs.

It wont matter if Perdue doesnt get to 50, the race is headed for a runoff
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