TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11

[Progressive Pessimist]

Michigan-yes.

Florida-HELL NO!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Michigan-yes.

Florida-HELL NO!

I think you are being biased and not fact-based here.

The Michigan poll is actually far more inaccurate than the Florida poll here. In the Michigan sample, they have it as 60% college educated (really inaccurate; it was 37% educated according to the 2018 exit polls). This is a huge problem because educated voters in Michigan vote for Biden by 17, but non college educated are far less pro Biden. This poll is actually super skewed in favor of Biden because of this. I would say there's at least a 7% pro Biden skew because of their poor weighting on education.

I'm making a big deal about this because the lack of education weighting was the biggest contributor to why midwestern polling was so bad in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Florida poll holds up much better because there is not a significant educational gap in how people are voting. It's still way over sampling educated people, but because there isn't a big gap, it doesn't skew the results as much. It's probably only a 3-4% pro Biden skew.

Just because FL was close in 2016 and 2018 does not mean it will be close in 2020. Every election is different.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Rust Belt and the Sun Belt are uniting around one man: Uncle Joe!

[Lief 🗽]

I think this forum dramatically over-exaggerates how inelastic Florida is. If Biden is winning 14 points, then Florida is not still going to be a 1-2 point race. Especially because it seems like a lot of the swing towards Biden from 2016 is coming from olds, who obviously are over-represented in a state like Florida.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Uncle Joe up eleven in Florida? Uhm, no.

All the people who hate Trump because of COVID in the Northeast have ties to Florida. Anytime the Northeast swings to one party, so does Florida. The Gulf Coast in Florida is also filled with Midwestern retirees as well, and Biden is blowing Trump out of the water in Michigan.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Michigan President by TIPP on 2020-06-12

Summary: D: 51%, R: 38%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by TIPP on 2020-06-11

Summary: D: 51%, R: 40%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[NOVA Green]

I think this forum dramatically over-exaggerates how inelastic Florida is. If Biden is winning 14 points, then Florida is not still going to be a 1-2 point race. Especially because it seems like a lot of the swing towards Biden from 2016 is coming from olds, who obviously are over-represented in a state like Florida.

Lief makes a good point here....

Voters 65+  (51-42 Biden).

Voters 45-64 (47-45 Biden).

One could certainly make an argument about weights for education, but generally voters 65+ tend to have lower levels of Ed attainment (even in FL), and no reason to suspect that there is a secret massive hoard of "WWC younger" voters hidden in the wings...

Even the Gen Ex numbers seem plausible....

[Crumpets]

Remember back in 2000 when one of the arguments around the Florida ballots was that they were too confusing for old people and that benefited Bush because olds in Florida were strongly Democratic? If this holds, we'll have had two full 180s on that stat in just 20 years.

[Hope For A New Era]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

And these polls were sponsored by a Republican Super PAC.

These polls appear to be sponsored by a hardcore Trumpist website too. Run by a group that includes the guy who wrote the "Flight 93 Election" article (and was in the Trump administration for a while).

Would it be crazy to propose that some of these are trying to sow complacency? Not sure if it's beyond the Flight 93 Election guy's mental capacity or not, but it's a possibility.

[Landslide Lyndon]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

These polls appear to be sponsored by a hardcore Trumpist website too. Run by a group that includes the guy who wrote the "Flight 93 Election" article (and was in the Trump administration for a while).

Would it be crazy to propose that some of these are trying to sow complacency? Not sure if it's beyond the Flight 93 Election guy's mental capacity or not, but it's a possibility.

Polls could show Biden 20 points ahead in Utah and Democrats still won't let their guard down until the 270h electoral vote is called. You can thank 2016 for that.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Michigan-yes.

Florida-HELL NO!

I think you are being biased and not fact-based here.

The Michigan poll is actually far more inaccurate than the Florida poll here. In the Michigan sample, they have it as 60% college educated (really inaccurate; it was 37% educated according to the 2018 exit polls). This is a huge problem because educated voters in Michigan vote for Biden by 17, but non college educated are far less pro Biden. This poll is actually super skewed in favor of Biden because of this. I would say there's at least a 7% pro Biden skew because of their poor weighting on education.

I'm making a big deal about this because the lack of education weighting was the biggest contributor to why midwestern polling was so bad in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Florida poll holds up much better because there is not a significant educational gap in how people are voting. It's still way over sampling educated people, but because there isn't a big gap, it doesn't skew the results as much. It's probably only a 3-4% pro Biden skew.

Just because FL was close in 2016 and 2018 does not mean it will be close in 2020. Every election is different.

Where are you getting this Michigan education numbers you are citing?

This is the education distribution of the Michigan poll:
HS or less: 18%
Some college: 29%
College Grad: 38%
Grad Degree: 16%

This is the education distribution of the 2018 exit poll:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
HS or less: 23%
Some college: 25%
College Grad: 35%
Grad Degree: 17%

So the poll here is about 3% more educated than the 2018 exit poll, which if reweighted would move the bottom line less than a point.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s hilarious to compare the reactions to the FL and MI numbers. Trump is just as reliant on a "max-out-the-white-vote" strategy in FL as he is in FL/MI/PA, and it’s easy to forget that FL was only <1% more Republican than those states in 2016. Scott would have been toast without his inroads with nonwhite voters, and his result is in no way the new Republican floor in this state. We’re not going to see FL decided by a razor-thin margin/narrowly voting for Trump if Michigan is an easy double-digit blowout for Biden.

[Progressive Pessimist]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

These polls appear to be sponsored by a hardcore Trumpist website too. Run by a group that includes the guy who wrote the "Flight 93 Election" article (and was in the Trump administration for a while).

Would it be crazy to propose that some of these are trying to sow complacency? Not sure if it's beyond the Flight 93 Election guy's mental capacity or not, but it's a possibility.

Polls could show Biden 20 points ahead in Utah and Democrats still won't let their guard down until the 270h electoral vote is called. You can thank 2016 for that.

That's probably for the better in the end, even as it may be frustrating and the result of gas-lighting by Trump supporters and PTSD for now.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Michigan-yes.

Florida-HELL NO!

I think you are being biased and not fact-based here.

The Michigan poll is actually far more inaccurate than the Florida poll here. In the Michigan sample, they have it as 60% college educated (really inaccurate; it was 37% educated according to the 2018 exit polls). This is a huge problem because educated voters in Michigan vote for Biden by 17, but non college educated are far less pro Biden. This poll is actually super skewed in favor of Biden because of this. I would say there's at least a 7% pro Biden skew because of their poor weighting on education.

I'm making a big deal about this because the lack of education weighting was the biggest contributor to why midwestern polling was so bad in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Florida poll holds up much better because there is not a significant educational gap in how people are voting. It's still way over sampling educated people, but because there isn't a big gap, it doesn't skew the results as much. It's probably only a 3-4% pro Biden skew.

Just because FL was close in 2016 and 2018 does not mean it will be close in 2020. Every election is different.

Where are you getting this Michigan education numbers you are citing?

This is the education distribution of the Michigan poll:
HS or less: 18%
Some college: 29%
College Grad: 38%
Grad Degree: 16%

This is the education distribution of the 2018 exit poll:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
HS or less: 23%
Some college: 25%
College Grad: 35%
Grad Degree: 17%

So the poll here is about 3% more educated than the 2018 exit poll, which if reweighted would move the bottom line less than a point.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nyt-siena-poll-methodology-june-2020/f6f533b4d07f4cbe/full.pdf


NYT/Siena is using a 22% white college - 50% white non college sample for Michigan (rest of the sample is miniorities/refusal to answer). And they're using a 20% white college - 38% white non college sample for Florida.


I trust NYT/Siena to conduct good polls because Nate Cohn is obsessed with data research and analysis.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Michigan-yes.

Florida-HELL NO!

I think you are being biased and not fact-based here.

The Michigan poll is actually far more inaccurate than the Florida poll here. In the Michigan sample, they have it as 60% college educated (really inaccurate; it was 37% educated according to the 2018 exit polls). This is a huge problem because educated voters in Michigan vote for Biden by 17, but non college educated are far less pro Biden. This poll is actually super skewed in favor of Biden because of this. I would say there's at least a 7% pro Biden skew because of their poor weighting on education.

I'm making a big deal about this because the lack of education weighting was the biggest contributor to why midwestern polling was so bad in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Florida poll holds up much better because there is not a significant educational gap in how people are voting. It's still way over sampling educated people, but because there isn't a big gap, it doesn't skew the results as much. It's probably only a 3-4% pro Biden skew.

Just because FL was close in 2016 and 2018 does not mean it will be close in 2020. Every election is different.

Where are you getting this Michigan education numbers you are citing?

This is the education distribution of the Michigan poll:
HS or less: 18%
Some college: 29%
College Grad: 38%
Grad Degree: 16%

This is the education distribution of the 2018 exit poll:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
HS or less: 23%
Some college: 25%
College Grad: 35%
Grad Degree: 17%

So the poll here is about 3% more educated than the 2018 exit poll, which if reweighted would move the bottom line less than a point.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nyt-siena-poll-methodology-june-2020/f6f533b4d07f4cbe/full.pdf


NYT/Siena is using a 22% white college - 50% white non college sample for Michigan (rest of the sample is miniorities/refusal to answer). And they're using a 20% white college - 38% white non college sample for Florida.


I trust NYT/Siena to conduct good polls because Nate Cohn is obsessed with data research and analysis.

So I'm counting an associate's degree as a "college graduate", and it sounds like Siena is not.  Is this something that tends to be consistent when we talk about "college" versus "non-college" voters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan-yes.

Florida-HELL NO!

I think you are being biased and not fact-based here.

The Michigan poll is actually far more inaccurate than the Florida poll here. In the Michigan sample, they have it as 60% college educated (really inaccurate; it was 37% educated according to the 2018 exit polls). This is a huge problem because educated voters in Michigan vote for Biden by 17, but non college educated are far less pro Biden. This poll is actually super skewed in favor of Biden because of this. I would say there's at least a 7% pro Biden skew because of their poor weighting on education.

I'm making a big deal about this because the lack of education weighting was the biggest contributor to why midwestern polling was so bad in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Florida poll holds up much better because there is not a significant educational gap in how people are voting. It's still way over sampling educated people, but because there isn't a big gap, it doesn't skew the results as much. It's probably only a 3-4% pro Biden skew.

Just because FL was close in 2016 and 2018 does not mean it will be close in 2020. Every election is different.

Where are you getting this Michigan education numbers you are citing?

This is the education distribution of the Michigan poll:
HS or less: 18%
Some college: 29%
College Grad: 38%
Grad Degree: 16%

This is the education distribution of the 2018 exit poll:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
HS or less: 23%
Some college: 25%
College Grad: 35%
Grad Degree: 17%

So the poll here is about 3% more educated than the 2018 exit poll, which if reweighted would move the bottom line less than a point.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nyt-siena-poll-methodology-june-2020/f6f533b4d07f4cbe/full.pdf


NYT/Siena is using a 22% white college - 50% white non college sample for Michigan (rest of the sample is miniorities/refusal to answer). And they're using a 20% white college - 38% white non college sample for Florida.


I trust NYT/Siena to conduct good polls because Nate Cohn is obsessed with data research and analysis.

So I'm counting an associate's degree as a "college graduate", and it sounds like Siena is not.  Is this something that tends to be consistent when we talk about "college" versus "non-college" voters?

"College graduate" generally means a bachelor's or higher.  A two-year degree would be "some college".