TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11

[Granite City]

Michigan

https://kittyhawk.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/06/Michigan-Crosstabs-June-2020-1.pdf

June 9-12, 859 LV

Biden - 51%
Trump - 38%

907 RV

Biden - 50%
Trump - 37%

Florida

https://kittyhawk.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/06/Florida-Crosstabs-June-2020-1.pdf

June 9-11, 875 LV

Biden - 51%
Trump - 40%

910 RV

Biden - 50%
Trump - 40%

[Landslide Lyndon]

[BlueSwan]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

[wbrocks67]

538 rates them A/B too

Wow

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

+11 in Michigan... +11 in Florida? Lol. Ok.

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

It’s not happening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

And these polls were sponsored by a Republican Super PAC.

[ON Progressive]

+13 in Michigan is one thing, especially since we just had another poll out this morning with an even bigger lead than that.

+11 in Florida...yeah, that is quite optimistic for Biden.

[Buzz]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Let's go back to the last time the margin of victory in Florida was 6.0+ points: 1988.  

That election, HW Bush prevailed over Dukakis 60.87 - 38.51 (a margin of +22.36). Dukakis only won a single county (Gadsden) by around 350 votes out of 12,000.  

That election, Florida voted a whole fourteen points to the right of the nation!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

[Panda Express]

I like my women like I like my swing state 2020 election polls

Dominating and rated highly by 538

[ProudModerate2]

+11 in Florida.....

+11 in Florida...

Let that sink in for a minute.

[Illini Moderate]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

Well, there's been ONE.  But we do not speak of it. 

[tagimaucia]

These polls appear to be sponsored by a hardcore Trumpist website too. Run by a group that includes the guy who wrote the "Flight 93 Election" article (and was in the Trump administration for a while).

[SingingAnalyst]

+11 in Michigan... +11 in Florida? Lol. Ok.

The margin of error with a sample of 900 is about 3.3%, so presumably a different sample at the same time could have had MI Biden+16 and FL Biden +5.

[Illini Moderate]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

Well, there's been ONE.  But we do not speak of it. 

😂 ahhh yes, the gold standard OANN/Gravis poll.

[Buzz]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

[Alben Barkley]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

It's not delusional to call it Lean D at this point either, frankly.

Just delusional to still cling to the notion that it's Lean R, let alone more R than that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

But why do you believe that to be true?  Trump is clearly behind in Florida right now, so what do you think is going to change between now and Election Day?  Please provide some specific reasoning, and not just intuition or feelings.

[Alben Barkley]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

But why do you believe that to be true?  Trump is clearly behind in Florida right now, so what do you think is going to change between now and Election Day?  Please provide some specific reasoning, and not just intuition or feelings.

His feelings don't care about your facts.

And yes, I think it's safe to say Buzz is the new SN now.

[Sbane]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

Always best to stick to data and facts. For example, this poll has Biden only receiving 50% of the vote in both states. You can argue all the undecideds will be going to Trump and if turnout is low among Democrats, Trump could possibly win. Unlikely at this point but crazier things have happened.

[Nyvin]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

Based on what?

[SingingAnalyst]

FL -> Lean R
MI -> Lean D

Florida is not "Lean R" *right now*. There hasn't been a poll there with Trump in the lead since the beginning of March. To claim its anything besides a tossup is just delusional.

I’m not basing it off right now, I’m basing it off what is most likely to occur on 11/3.  On 11/3 Florida will be a Lean R state.

But why do you believe that to be true?  Trump is clearly behind in Florida right now, so what do you think is going to change between now and Election Day?  Please provide some specific reasoning, and not just intuition or feelings.

His feelings don't care about your facts.

And yes, I think it's safe to say Buzz is the new SN now.

The only justification for believing FL will stay R on 11/3 is that Trump polls low. But Trump is now a known quantity, and will not poll as low this year as in 2016. FL will be close, perhaps very close, but I think Biden wins it.