2020 Singapore general election

[Joseph Cao]

Singapore's parliament was dissolved on Tuesday in preparation for the usual general-election timeline: candidate nominations on June 30; nine-day campaign period; a "Cooling Off Day" right before polls open on July 10. In theory, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has until next April to hold elections, but says he has decided to hold them now because the COVID–19 pandemic may not be completely under control by then. So this campaign season will feature a bunch of safety restrictions including a ban on all campaign rallies (traditional GOTV efforts are expected to move online instead) and a plan for staggering voting schedules to avoid large crowds at polling stations.

Electorally speaking, Lee's PAP supermajority in parliament is not really in danger and the main question is whether the party will be able to hit the 69.9% share of the popular vote that they achieved in the 2015 general election in the wake of founding father Lee Kuan Yew's death. It will probably be lower, closer to the sixty-something percent they usually get in federal elections, since the current government now has to contend with the worst recession in Singapore's history and an outbreak of COVID–19 cases among its foreign-worker population. However, the opposition is weak and the Singaporean electorate's risk aversion will ensure that the seat total doesn't follow the expected drop in PV margin. The Workers' Party, the only opposition party with seats in Parliament, is reeling from a civil suit that found its leaders liable for millions of dollars in damages over mismanagement of municipal funds. Few other opposition parties are expected to have any success, although this election is notable for the entry of the Progress Singapore Party (PSP), the first-ever PAP splinter, which was recently backed by Lee's brother Lee Hsien Yang.

Prime Minister Lee has said he will hand over the prime ministerial office to his deputy at some point after this election, which makes Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat the effective prime minister-in-waiting. Heng is part of the so-called "4G" (fourth-generation) PAP leaders who have been preparing to assume control of the party leadership following Lee's departure, and their performance in this election will also be of some interest.

[PSOL]

Could you describe the major political parties both in and outside of parliament?

[jaichind]

Main opposition parties are

WP (Workers' Party) - long time leftist Opposition party
SDP (Singapore Democratic Party) - liberal left party with roots in the 1970s
SPP (Singapore People's Party) - liberal center-left, SDP splinter
RP (Reform Party) - Centrist splinter of WP
SDA (Singapore Democratic Alliance) - liberal centrist - fusion of SDP and SPP rebels
SF (Singaporeans First) - centrist SDP splinter
NSP (National Solidarity Party) - centrist progressive fusion of PAP and SDP rebels from the 1980s 

All these parties contested as an alliance against the PAP in 2015

And lastly (PSP) Progress Singapore Party which was formed by a bunch of PAP rebels in 2019 although many of them have turned PAP rebel as early as 2011.  Recently, as pointed out, PM Lee's estranged brother Lee Hsien Yang also joined PSP.  PM Lee and Lee Hsien Yang seems to have a falling out over the distribution and control of property left by former PM Lee Kuan Yew.  It does not seem Lee Hsien Yang will be a candidate for PSP though. 

Nomination day is 6/30 so PSP and the opposition alliance will have until then to work out deals to divide up the seats so the anti-PAP forces can take on PAP 1-on-1.  It was tough in 2015 for all the opposition forces to agree on an alliance and now PSP will demand its share of the seats making opposition seat sharing talks even that much tougher.  Most likely they will work something else given the all powerful nature of the PAP machine.

PAP of course will win but for sure will lose vote share from 2015.  So this election is really about how many seats PAP will lose relative to 2015.

One way PAP keeps on winning elections besides running a very tight ship and overall administrative competence is that potential anti-PAP voters are caught in a prisoners dilemma.  Areas that does not vote PAP will tend to get less subsidies and funds for development. So if every anti-PAP voter came out to vote against PAP perhaps PAP could be defeated.  But   if only some anti-PAP votes come out then PAP will win and continue to control the government and those areas that voted anti-PAP would see their development funds decrease.  Conveniently for PAP pre-election polls are forbidden so it is hard for anti-PAP votes to coordinate.  And the fact that Singapore is governed well creates an incentive for the anti-PAP voter not to come out or even just vote PAP.

One day PAP perhaps could be beaten.  But 2020 is not that day.

[CumbrianLefty]

Always thought that PAP was an appropriate acronym, somehow......

[jaichind]

Nomination day came and went.

The opposition alliance mostly held together.  Out of 31 districts the opposition will take on PAP 1-on-1 in 30 of them. Only in one GRC did the opposition alliance run two lists.  In one more district an independent will run but he is not really part of the opposition alliance.  PSP will run in 9 out of 31 districts which is the most of any opposition party and speaks to the discipline of the opposition parties to accommodate the new PAP splinter PSP in so many districts.

I can definitely see the PAP lose a district or two under the circumstances relative to 2015. 

[Estrella]

Always thought that PAP was an appropriate acronym, somehow......

Even more so, an appropriate logo.


For those interested, here's the Workers Party manifesto. Much less radical than you'd expect from their name - a mix of specific piecemeal policies like improving conditions in foreign workers' dormitories, reducing class sizes, lowering the voting age to 18 and so forth.

[jaichind]

One district the opposition is hoping for a breakthrough is East Coast GRC.  Back in 2011 WP managed to win 45.2% of the vote here.  This time around WP is trying to win this seat outright.  PAP sees the danger and moved DPM 王瑞杰(Heng Swee Keat) to head the PAP list here to ensure a PAP victory.  That the PAP thinks it could lose a 5% swing on top of 2011 (which was a relatively bad PAP year) shows how feafure PAP is this time at taking losses.

[jaichind]

The opposition last pre-election appeal, just like previous election: Look, there is no way PAP will lose, but please vote Opposition so there are a just a few Opposition MPs in the legislature to keep PAP accountable.  Please stop a clean sweep by the PAP.

[jaichind]

Due to social distancing measures and high turnout leading to long lines voting has been extended to 10pm (10am EST)

[jaichind]

Just like 2015 there will be a "quick count" (similar to what they do in Mexico) within the hour of polls closing which should give you a good idea of the final results.  In 2015 they were very accurate.

[jaichind]

West Coast GRC is another seat to watch.  Old PAP MP rebel and now PSP leader Tan Cheng Bock is leading the PSP list against the PAP.  The PAP majority is too big for him to overturn but the swing toward PSP would be interesting to watch.

[jaichind]

It seems turnout is around 96%, up a couple of percentage points from 2015.  Some quick count results should be out soon.

[jaichind]

Hong Kah North SMC quick count has PAP at 63% which is a 11% swing against PAP relative to 2015 results.

[jaichind]

Potong Pasir SMC quick count has PAP at 61%, a swing of 5% against PAP relative to 2015

[jaichind]

Marine Parade GRC PAP at 57% which is a swing of 7% against the PAP.

So far this looks a lot like 2011 results.

PAP will not gain seats relative to 2015 and should now be hoping for not having any losses.

[jaichind]

Bukit Batok SMC quick count has PAP at 57% which is a massive 16% swing from 2015.  Note there was a by-election here in 2016 where PAP was reduced to 61%

[jaichind]

Critical East Coast GRC sample count has PAP at 54% which is a 7% swing away from PAP from 2015.  Most other larger GRC seats have a 5%-7% swing away from PAP.    Putting the DPM in this seat most likely saved the PAP from a embarrassing loss.

[jaichind]

Hougang SMC quick count has WP at 58% which is the same as 2015.  WP looks like it will easily hold one of its seats from 2015.

[jaichind]

Aljunied GRC sample count has WP at 60% which is a 10% swing in favor of WP and well exceed the 2011 WP performance as WP holds another district with ease.

[jaichind]

West Coast GRC sample count has PAP at 52% which is a massive 26% swing against the PAP.   PAP MP rebel and now PSP leader Tan Cheng Bock is making is presence felt.

[jaichind]

Sengkang GRC quick count has WP at 53% which is a huge upset in this new seat.  Most likely WP will pick up this district for the second GRC that PAP has lost.

[jaichind]

It seems WP and PSP both have the ability to eat into the PAP vote relative to other opposition parties.  Where WP vacated seat it ran in 2015 to other opposition allies the PAP losses were minor if any.  Where WP and PSP ran there are large swings in favor of the opposition. 

[jaichind]

Ang Mo Kio GRC early count has PAP at 72% which is a 7% swing against the PAP in Lee Hsien Loong's own district.

[jaichind]

All sample count are in.

PAP ahead in 83 and WP 10.  Back in 2015 it was PAP 83 WP 6.

Significant PAP setback losing a second GRC to WP.

[jaichind]

Sengkang GRC is fairly youth heavy so the big youth surge that was suppose to hit PAP back in 2015 finally came out in 2020.