Your past election predictions?

[Chips]

Here's mine:

2000: I predicted correctly that Bush won the presidency but with a slightly different combination of states.

George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 277 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 261 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote

2004: I thought George W. Bush would've beat Kerry by a more convincing margin

George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 317 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote
John Kerry/John Edwards: 221 electoral votes and 48% of the popular vote

2008: Correctly guessed Obama's win

Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 381 electoral votes and 55% of the popular vote
John McCain/Sarah Palin: 157 electoral votes and 44% of the popular vote

2012: Predicted Obama's re-election win but much more narrow

Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 288 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 250 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote

2016: Surprisingly guessed Trump's win

Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 299 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 239 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote

[Chips]

Oh, and here's my current 2020 election prediction

Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 316 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Joe Biden/VP: 222 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote

[Chips]

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.

X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.

O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.

O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.

X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.

2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

Hmm, Interesting. I actually got the winner right each time I predicted so that's pretty cool.

[Chips]

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.

X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.

O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.

O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.

X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.

2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

Hmm, Interesting. I actually got the winner right each time I predicted so that's pretty cool.

Well, there's a first time for everything

True, We'll have to see. Right now I'm guessing Trump 316, Biden 222 with Trump picking up NV and NH.

[Chips]

So you actually had Trump 306, Clinton 232 with WI, NH and NV swapped. Very interesting! Definitely the closest to getting them all right I've seen so far.

[Chips]

2004: Predicted Kerry would narrowly win. No Map, but would have put Ohio in his column giving him 272-266.

2008: Predicted Obama would win. No map, but had all but IN/NE 2 going for Obama.

2012: Predicted Romney would narrowly win: 279 259

2016: A bizarre looking map, but predicted a narrow Trump win 270 268

Nice.

That 2016 map wasn't bizarre at all. Many people predicted that map and I only also predicted Trump would also win CO and PA for 299-239.