Your past election predictions?
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  Your past election predictions?
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Author Topic: Your past election predictions?  (Read 1149 times)
Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 23, 2020, 09:56:42 PM »

Here's mine:

2000: I predicted correctly that Bush won the presidency but with a slightly different combination of states.



George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 277 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 261 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote

2004: I thought George W. Bush would've beat Kerry by a more convincing margin



George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 317 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote
John Kerry/John Edwards: 221 electoral votes and 48% of the popular vote

2008: Correctly guessed Obama's win




Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 381 electoral votes and 55% of the popular vote
John McCain/Sarah Palin: 157 electoral votes and 44% of the popular vote

2012: Predicted Obama's re-election win but much more narrow



Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 288 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 250 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote

2016: Surprisingly guessed Trump's win



Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 299 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 239 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2020, 11:04:54 PM »

Oh, and here's my current 2020 election prediction



Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 316 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
Joe Biden/VP: 222 electoral votes and 49% of the popular vote
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2020, 03:05:30 AM »

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.


X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.


O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.



O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.



X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.



2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2020, 03:10:01 AM »

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.


X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.


O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.



O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.



X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.



2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

Hmm, Interesting. I actually got the winner right each time I predicted so that's pretty cool.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2020, 03:13:44 AM »

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.


X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.


O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.



O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.



X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.



2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

Hmm, Interesting. I actually got the winner right each time I predicted so that's pretty cool.

Well, there's a first time for everything Smiley
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2020, 03:16:08 AM »

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.


X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.


O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.



O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.



X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.



2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

Hmm, Interesting. I actually got the winner right each time I predicted so that's pretty cool.

Well, there's a first time for everything Smiley
True, We'll have to see. Right now I'm guessing Trump 316, Biden 222 with Trump picking up NV and NH.
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Granite City
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2020, 06:12:41 PM »

Wasn't following politics before 2016 but I started out very lucky



I was always pretty bullish on Trump and never doubted he would win FL and NC in a close election and I saw a late surge for Trump in the last few days - I had him losing MI and PA before my final prediction.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2020, 06:49:16 PM »

So you actually had Trump 306, Clinton 232 with WI, NH and NV swapped. Very interesting! Definitely the closest to getting them all right I've seen so far.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2020, 04:01:11 AM »

I've been wrong every damn time lmao.

2008: McCain win (too young to actually bother to read the news or polling, obv no map)

2012: Narrow Romney win, fell for the Dean Chambers "poll unskewing" stuff cuz I desperately wanted to believe it



2016: My prediction was basically identical to the consensus. Turns out, consensus was wrong.



2020: Currently predicting a narrow Biden win like this:



But I wouldn't be surprised to see a scenario where the Sun Belt flips all at once (save for Texas but it's close) and may revise my prediction to reflect FL, NC and GA flipping if Trump's campaign continues to free fall. As of now I think IA and OH stay R.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2020, 04:26:05 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2020, 04:36:18 PM by mrappaport1220 »

I was fairly young in 2008 and 2012, so I did not have a formal prediction but I remember that I thought Obama would win both times. Correct

In 2016, I thought Hillary Clinton would win 279 Electoral Votes with Trump getting 259 Electoral Votes. Here is the map: Incorrect



Clinton/Kaine: 279 √
Trump/Pence: 259

The 2020 Election obviously has not happened yet but here is what I think the map will be in the end in November: TBD



Biden/VP: 289 √
Trump/Pence: 249
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2020, 05:40:21 PM »


This was mine circa August 2016
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NHI
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2020, 10:16:33 AM »

2004: Predicted Kerry would narrowly win. No Map, but would have put Ohio in his column giving him 272-266.

2008: Predicted Obama would win. No map, but had all but IN/NE 2 going for Obama.

2012: Predicted Romney would narrowly win: 279 259


2016: A bizarre looking map, but predicted a narrow Trump win 270 268

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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2020, 06:02:57 AM »

2004: Predicted Kerry would narrowly win. No Map, but would have put Ohio in his column giving him 272-266.

2008: Predicted Obama would win. No map, but had all but IN/NE 2 going for Obama.

2012: Predicted Romney would narrowly win: 279 259


2016: A bizarre looking map, but predicted a narrow Trump win 270 268



Nice.

That 2016 map wasn't bizarre at all. Many people predicted that map and I only also predicted Trump would also win CO and PA for 299-239.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2020, 11:44:55 AM »

I remember thinking Romney would win
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 08:11:07 AM »

No maps but I remember knowing Obama would win in 2012, before that I was too young.

I honestly can't remember what I thought in 2016, I know I told people that Trump could win, but I don't think I ever really believed it deep down cos on election night I was floored. Part of the motivation for posting on this site is so I can have a record of my past opinions and predictions to refer back to in the future.

Biden will win in Nov.
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DeSantis4Prez
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 09:14:50 PM »



Clinton: 268, win PV
Trump: 264
McMullin: 6

Only past prediction, I had the election going to the House. Yes, really. Which in my head meant Trump/Pence anyway so I was technically correct. I was really in on McMullin wininng Utah for some reason? But hindsight is 20/20.




Biden: 278
Trump: 260

And here's my current 2020 prediction. This really pains me but yes, I have Biden winning at the moment. But you never know, I think there's a huge chance that the silent majority will show up once again for Trump.



This is what I see happening if the silent majority shows out for Trump. He takes 298 to Biden's 248.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2020, 09:50:28 PM »

I was only 14 for the 2012 election, but my mom really liked Romney and she always talked about politics so that made me think he would win.

My 2016 prediction: https://www.270towin.com/maps/8xLQy (Clinton 278-Trump 260)
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zoz
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« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2020, 09:19:40 PM »

This was my 2016 prediction



Trump/Pence - 270
Clinton/Kaine - 268
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