Your past election predictions?

[McGarnagle]

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.

X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.

O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.

O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.

X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.

2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

[McGarnagle]

I started predicting elections as a teenager in 2004. Each time, I predicted a Democratic victory, so I've been right half the time and wrong half the time.

X 2004 - Kerry 284 ~50%, Bush 254 ~48%

I incorrectly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004. I missed Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio.

O 2008 - Obama 350 ~53%, McCain 188 ~46%

I correctly predicted an Obama victory in 2008 - I missed Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.

O 2012 - Obama 303 ~51%, Romney 235 ~47%

I correctly predicted Obama's re-election in 2012, missing only Florida.

X 2016 - Clinton ~49% 322, Trump ~45% 216

I incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory in 2016, missing Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I made this a week before the election. I wish I hadn't jumped the gun - I probably would have at least put NC in Trump's column if I'd predicted it the day before.

2020 - Biden ~52% 335, Trump ~44% 203 EV

I predict a Biden victory this November, flipping Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Possibly Ohio too, I keep going back and forth on that state. Things could change.

Hmm, Interesting. I actually got the winner right each time I predicted so that's pretty cool.

Well, there's a first time for everything