2024: Andrew Cuomo vs Nikki Haley

[Escape Pod Zero]

Assuming Biden wins this year, who wins?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Neither of these two are nearly as likely to be nominated as beltway media thinks, but if both were to somehow win their parties over, my guess would be that Haley would edge Cuomo out.

[President Biden Democrat]

Both are fairly good candidates. My guess would be, Cuomo. Obviously, if Trump is re-elected (which I think is less likely), then Cuomo would definitely win. I don't think Cuomo would be the Democratic nominee if Biden wins in 2020 (as I believe it will be his VP.) If he is the nominee in 2024 after a Biden presidency, I think he'd still pull off a victory against Haley by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and either Wisconsin or Arizona.

[Alben Barkley]

Cuomo's got this in the bag.

Haley is a laughably overrated candidate.

[President Johnson]

Cuomo would be a very formidable general election candidate.

✓ Governor Andrew M. Cuomo (D-NY)/Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D-NM): ~ 305 EV. (50.92%)
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Senator James Lankford (R-OK): ~ 233 EV. (47.23%)

[S019]

I think Haley manages to save TX due to her being able to do somewhat better with moderate whites and minority votes. She can't save GA though, due to lots of growth among AA votes, and I don't think any Republican can improve enough with that demographic to save GA. She doesn't do as well in the rurals as Trump, but the rurals in WI and ME are at this point, Republican enough that it doesn't matter. Cuomo is also probably the last Democrat to win MI for a while, as Detroit keeps shrinking. She also improves among moderate voters and does much better with college educated voters, particularly women, which helps her flip NH. She has the right strategy, but she's fighting a very tough path of demographic change, and the entire Rust Belt isn't quite yet, at the point where Republicans can win it regularly.

[President Biden Democrat]

Here is my prediction below between Cuomo and Haley. I'm not sure who they'd pick as there VP Nominees, so I won't include it here.

President

Andrew M. Cuomo: 286 √
Nimrata "Nikki" Haley: 252

I think Cuomo would win over the northeast and midwest. Haley would do fairly well in the south in states like North Carolina and she'd be able to take Florida by a very close margin, likely within 1 percent.