2020 College Football Discussion and Pick 'Em Thread

[Santander]

These kinds of competitions are worthless unless you either have weighted scores based on straight up decimal odds, or pick ATS (better for CFB). That's how most betting competitions are run. (including Senate prediction competitions organized by Congressional staffers, where the spread is the poll consensus) Plus you open up over/under markets.

[Santander]

"If I were president, we would be playing college football" is the clinching argument for Biden.

Behind closed doors, and with a modified schedule. Just as it's probably going to be under Trump.

[Santander]

I wonder if this might spur another round of conference realignment.  For example, if the Big 12 decides to play, might Iowa and Nebraska decide to bolt the Big Ten for them?  Nebraska was previously in the Big 12, and Iowa would be a good fit for them as well.

Move out of a cash cow conference (and in Iowa's case, with century-old institutional ties) to the weakest P5 conference to play football for a year?...

If anyone is doing the poaching it'll be the Big Ten, not the other way around.

[Santander]

We could see some Group of five schools moving into the Power five or down to Division II as a result.

Nobody is moving down to D2. Financially struggling schools who quit FBS will either move to FCS or cancel their programs entirely.

As for moving into P5, very few schools fit both the geographical and institutional profiles to make the move (Colorado State, Houston, UCF, USF, Cincinnati), and there is no logical reason for any conference (and by any, I mean Big 12) to add them because of COVID.

[Santander]

It really isn't stupid in my opinion, to wait for a vaccine before opening up things like sporting events. That's what the pros should have done, and that's certainly what colleges should have done.

You can't control thousands of fans in a stadium. You can control a relatively limited number of players, staff, officials, and media.

[Santander]

When the student body comes back, there will be parties.

UNC has reported four COVID-19 clusters in less than a week after starting classes.

And UNC throws in the towel for in-person classes this semester.  I can't believe they'll be playing football under these circumstances.

Their athletes never attended classes anyway. (in-person or online)

[Santander]

TBF, plenty of pro sports players (who are also mostly young men, but obviously generally with more professionalism than college kids) have gotten COVID, too. There is an element of it being an occupational hazard if you're playing right now.

[Santander]

Always good to see Pedo State lose.

[Santander]

WTF is going on in the Big Ten East? It's supposed to be the most stacked division, but most teams are an absolute shambles.

[Santander]

I can't believe both Indiana/Ohio State and Wisconsin/Northwestern (assuming Northwestern hangs on against Purdue) are going to be relevant to  the College Football Playoff.

It'll be hilarious if Indiana and Northwestern win those games.

Two all-time losingest FBS programs. Mostly a result of being mediocre programs that are old as dirt, but still.

[Santander]

The Hoosiers-Wildcats Big Ten Championship dream is over.

[Santander]

Disgusting. The one time I need Ole Miss to lose, they win. Sprouts knows that loss probably cost me $4k. (got the beautiful moneyline upsets of Sparty and USA)

[Santander]

So now that Washington won, I can share details of my Saturday CFB parlay.

Northwestern @ Michigan State: Michigan State (Moneyline 5.30)
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss: Mississippi State (Moneyline 3.35)
South Alabama @ Arkansas State: South Alabama (Moneyline 2.95)
North Texas @ UTSA: UTSA (Moneyline 1.76)
Utah @ Washington: Washington (Moneyline 1.35)

Total odds: 124.4 + 25% profit boost = 155.5

So. Disgusting.

[Santander]

App St
A&M
Ia St
Texas
OSU
CMU
Nevada
Rutgers
UVA
Miami
UK
Mizzou
Ohio St
Tulane
Purdue
Akron
WMU
Indiana
Buffalo
GaSou
USC

Not an exciting week

Not if you're a gambler. Licking my lips over Indiana beating Wisconsin. There is no way in hell they're 14.5 point dogs. Big Ten delivers again with value, last week with Sparty and this week with Indiana. And I don't think I'm the only one who sees Rutgers beating the spread vs Penn State.

[Santander]

App State is a terrible pick. You guys are tripping.

That's game is almost a coin toss.

So many people picking Rutgers over Penn State is much worse. For betting, sure, there is value. But an even money pick? No way.

[Santander]

App State is a terrible pick. You guys are tripping.

That's game is almost a coin toss.

And it's in some awful weather this year, as is traditional — 38 and pouring. Long snapper's already sent a ball about ten yards over the Louisiana punter's head.

EDIT: twice.

If there was one minefield to avoid when betting this week, it was that one. So much better value in the Big Ten.

[Santander]

Wow and wtf @ Rice beating Marshall 20-0? I thought the spread on that game was a bit ridiculous, but I didn't see Rice winning, let alone getting a shutout.

[Santander]

Hoo, hoo, hoo, Hoosiers!

Not a massive win in terms of profit for me, but it was clear to see that was the moneyline value of the week. Now watch them lose to Purdue next week. LOL.

[Santander]

Disappointed at not betting on Stanford or Cal, as I saw potential. (I had a tiny piece of Cal, but Kentucky is playing too well for it to pay) Still think there's a bit of value left tonight. Have Fresno State +5.5, ASU moneyline, Oregon State moneyline and +14.5, and a bet that I really hate but made anyway, Wyoming ATS for the parlays.

[Santander]

Disappointed at not betting on Stanford or Cal, as I saw potential. (I had a tiny piece of Cal, but Kentucky is playing too well for it to pay) Still think there's a bit of value left tonight. Have Fresno State +5.5, ASU moneyline, Oregon State moneyline and +14.5, and a bet that I really hate but made anyway, Wyoming ATS for the parlays.

Well, at least Oregon State only lost by 6.

Yeah, the west coast games ate into my Indiana profits, but thankfully the moneyline odds on Indiana were so good I ended up in profit. That's gambling, just need one good hit.

[Santander]

Ohio State-Michigan game canceled.

This leaves the Buckeyes one game short of the minimum six required to play in the Big Ten championship game, although it's possible the conference could revisit that rule this week.  If they don't play, the title game will be Indiana vs. Northwestern.

The Big Ten will gerrymander The OSU into the championship. Very sad for Indiana, but a championship between the two all-time losingest FBS programs (which is why we, the fans, need it) is not something the Big Ten wants.

[Santander]

In the Department of Empty Gestures:

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1336824332312580097

The NCAA needs to use the Death Penalty more often, quite frankly.

Baylor needs the Death Penalty, and UNC needs to have its basketball banners taken.

[Santander]

In the Department of Empty Gestures:

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1336824332312580097

The NCAA needs to use the Death Penalty more often, quite frankly.

Baylor needs the Death Penalty, and UNC needs to have its basketball banners taken.

Penn State should have been given the death penalty. And never had their garbage program resurrected.

Yes, that too. Everyone knows Pitt is the true representative of Pennsylvania.

[Santander]

Could the SEC be suspending play altogether (which might not just include football, but basketball and other winter/spring sports as well)?

No. The SEC will stop playing sports when hell freezes over. The announcement is about their new TV deal with the worldwide leader, which will make them ~$300 million a year.

And when hell freezes over, they'll just take up ice hockey.

[Santander]

Could the SEC be suspending play altogether (which might not just include football, but basketball and other winter/spring sports as well)?

No. The SEC will stop playing sports when hell freezes over. The announcement is about their new TV deal with the worldwide leader, which will make them ~$300 million a year.

And when hell freezes over, they'll just take up ice hockey.

I'm not a hockey fan (just never got into it) but the idea of, say, Alabama and Auburn playing in hockey is hilarious.

It was really sad when UAH announced they were shutting down their program. Fortunately, they managed to raise 500k(!) in 4 days from the community to keep the program alive.