Alaskans will vote on a ranked-choice voting system this November

[Mexican Wolf]

Happy to hear that this looks likely to pass, but how likely is a bill to implement this to get through the state legislature and be signed by Dunleavy?

[jimrtex]

Happy to hear that this looks likely to pass, but how likely is a bill to implement this to get through the state legislature and be signed by Dunleavy?

It is statute. It will become effective 90 days after it is certified, and is not subject to veto. It may not be repealed for two years after the effective date, though it can be amended. I do not if there are judicial interpretations of how extensive an amendment may be. Since the right of the initiative is in the constitution there may be limitations on neutering an initiative without full repeal.

For example, the Alaska constitution permits the governor to fill legislative vacancies, but reserves to the legislature the authority to provide for filling vacancies. Current statute does not provide for special elections except for senatorial vacancies that occur in the first two years of a 4-year term. The special election is held concurrently with the next general election. Current statute also provides that legislators of the same party and house of the predecessor must confirm the successor. Thus a governor would probably be blocked from appointing a stealth Republican or Democrat. The initiative amended these provisions to align them with the language of the initiative - since there are no longer party nominees, a legislator is a member of a party, rather than the nominee of a party.

The legislature could conceivably amend the statute to provide an RCV special election to fill legislative vacancies, since that would not really be contrary to the spirit or intent of the statute.

Congressional vacancies are currently filled by special election, and senatorial vacancies are filled sooner rather than later. Under the current law, there are no partisan primaries, but there is a contingent runoff if no candidate gets a majority (i.e. the system used in Georgia). The initiative modified these provisions so now the special election is conducted by RCV. So there are already provisions to borrow if the legislature wished to implement special elections for the legislature.

[jimrtex]

Your analysis is missing the heavily D, rural AK HDs 37-39, which have a lot of ballots out that likely skew Yes.

The mid-day Sunday results are from Anchorage, but they didn't update the district tables, I had to go hunting through the "precinct results".

BTW, any idea why there are two sets of absentee results for HD-6 and HD-9?

I think they're counted or at least collected by different offices - Faribanks vs Nome for 6 and Mat-Su vs Fairbanks for 9. There also are double entries for other HDs in the precinct text files, too, likely for the same reason. That messed up my results spreadsheet, since they changed it on the fly out of the blue in one update. I think it also messed up the NYT and CNN's results, too, at one point. They caught it way after I did.

I've caught up with the Anchorage results from Sunday.

They added 7785 votes, and have around 2250 remaining.

The newer mail ballots were substantially less favorable than earlier mail ballots, while still more favorable than the election day votes. For HD-16 through HD-28

56.6% latest mail ballots.
64.5% earlier mail ballots
47.2% non-mail (election day, questionable, early vote)

The Sunday mail ballots from Anchorage added 1021 to the margin. If the latest mail rate holds for the remaining mail ballots that would add +306.

Starting with current margin of +3218
+306 from Anchorage
+200 from Fairbanks (assumed same mail rate, so perhaps high a bit)
+300 from Mat-Su (just a quick eyeball, more ballots outstanding than Fairbanks)
+636 assuming similar results for HD-37 and HD-40 as HD-38 and HD-39. HD-37 has more ballots, but HD-40 fewer.
+200 for questionable and early votes for HD-37 through HD-40, assuming 60:40 split.
+0 for "HD-99" since they only vote on federal offices.

So a final margin of +4860 which would 1.41% of 345,000 total votes.

Alternative, NO would need 71.5% of remaining ballots to flip result. They didn't quite get that in HD-29 one of very strongest districts.

Has Kenai ever been an island?

The remainder of the Mat-Su mail ballots were extremely weak, around 15% less than previous mail ballots, and about the same as the election day ballots.

The net Yes margin was -244. This suggests that the remainder of the Fairbanks and Anchorage mail ballots will not be as positive as the previous mail ballots. They will still be positive, because these areas were stronger Yes than Mat-Su, but it will still cut into the expected margins.

The Yes margin for the Early Vote and Questioned votes in HD-37, HD-38, and HD-39 was +153. These votes were numerically dominated by the Early Vote from Nome in HD-39. Otherwise these votes would have been equivocal.

The current margin is +3027.

Cutting the estimates for Fairbanks and Anchorage in half:

+100 and +150

+636 for mail ballots from HD-37 and HD-40 to match results for HD-38 and HD-39.

+0 for equivocal results for Early Vote and Questionable for HD-40.

Final margin +3900 of about 1.13% (50.6% Yes to 49.4%). This margin is less than the undervote.

[jimrtex]

Your analysis is missing the heavily D, rural AK HDs 37-39, which have a lot of ballots out that likely skew Yes.

The mid-day Sunday results are from Anchorage, but they didn't update the district tables, I had to go hunting through the "precinct results".

BTW, any idea why there are two sets of absentee results for HD-6 and HD-9?

I think they're counted or at least collected by different offices - Faribanks vs Nome for 6 and Mat-Su vs Fairbanks for 9. There also are double entries for other HDs in the precinct text files, too, likely for the same reason. That messed up my results spreadsheet, since they changed it on the fly out of the blue in one update. I think it also messed up the NYT and CNN's results, too, at one point. They caught it way after I did.

I've caught up with the Anchorage results from Sunday.

They added 7785 votes, and have around 2250 remaining.

The newer mail ballots were substantially less favorable than earlier mail ballots, while still more favorable than the election day votes. For HD-16 through HD-28

56.6% latest mail ballots.
64.5% earlier mail ballots
47.2% non-mail (election day, questionable, early vote)

The Sunday mail ballots from Anchorage added 1021 to the margin. If the latest mail rate holds for the remaining mail ballots that would add +306.

Starting with current margin of +3218
+306 from Anchorage
+200 from Fairbanks (assumed same mail rate, so perhaps high a bit)
+300 from Mat-Su (just a quick eyeball, more ballots outstanding than Fairbanks)
+636 assuming similar results for HD-37 and HD-40 as HD-38 and HD-39. HD-37 has more ballots, but HD-40 fewer.
+200 for questionable and early votes for HD-37 through HD-40, assuming 60:40 split.
+0 for "HD-99" since they only vote on federal offices.

So a final margin of +4860 which would 1.41% of 345,000 total votes.

Alternative, NO would need 71.5% of remaining ballots to flip result. They didn't quite get that in HD-29 one of very strongest districts.

Has Kenai ever been an island?

The remainder of the Mat-Su mail ballots were extremely weak, around 15% less than previous mail ballots, and about the same as the election day ballots.

The net Yes margin was -244. This suggests that the remainder of the Fairbanks and Anchorage mail ballots will not be as positive as the previous mail ballots. They will still be positive, because these areas were stronger Yes than Mat-Su, but it will still cut into the expected margins.

The Yes margin for the Early Vote and Questioned votes in HD-37, HD-38, and HD-39 was +153. These votes were numerically dominated by the Early Vote from Nome in HD-39. Otherwise these votes would have been equivocal.

The current margin is +3027.

Cutting the estimates for Fairbanks and Anchorage in half:

+100 and +150

+636 for mail ballots from HD-37 and HD-40 to match results for HD-38 and HD-39.

+0 for equivocal results for Early Vote and Questionable for HD-40.

Final margin +3900 of about 1.13% (50.6% Yes to 49.4%). This margin is less than the undervote.

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

[cinyc]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

[jimrtex]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

Yes, I meant Fairbanks.

Their absentee ballots were completed on Wednesday, and I think the early vote and questioned vote were completed as well.

The link to the number of outstanding ballots has also disappeared so I think they are done.

Final margin is 1.10%.

An oddity is that the final ballots were heavily undervoted, except for President. I'm speculating that the very last ballots were Federal Overseas Write-in ballots, where you have to write in all office, and if it is not a federal office you have to write-in the office itself.

Persons who had not received a ballot or misplaced it might have used the ballot at the last minute, and it was among last counted. And/or the election officials may have set it aside, because it possible for voters to vote both an official absentee ballot and the write-in ballot.

This might have been especially true in Fairbanks because Wainwright is such a dominant presence.

[cinyc]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

Yes, I meant Fairbanks.

Their absentee ballots were completed on Wednesday, and I think the early vote and questioned vote were completed as well.

The link to the number of outstanding ballots has also disappeared so I think they are done.

Final margin is 1.10%.

An oddity is that the final ballots were heavily undervoted, except for President. I'm speculating that the very last ballots were Federal Overseas Write-in ballots, where you have to write in all office, and if it is not a federal office you have to write-in the office itself.

Persons who had not received a ballot or misplaced it might have used the ballot at the last minute, and it was among last counted. And/or the election officials may have set it aside, because it possible for voters to vote both an official absentee ballot and the write-in ballot.

This might have been especially true in Fairbanks because Wainwright is such a dominant presence.

Alaska’s federal overseas ballots are in fake HD 99. I don’t think they can vote on state races.

[jimrtex]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

Yes, I meant Fairbanks.

Their absentee ballots were completed on Wednesday, and I think the early vote and questioned vote were completed as well.

The link to the number of outstanding ballots has also disappeared so I think they are done.

Final margin is 1.10%.

An oddity is that the final ballots were heavily undervoted, except for President. I'm speculating that the very last ballots were Federal Overseas Write-in ballots, where you have to write in all office, and if it is not a federal office you have to write-in the office itself.

Persons who had not received a ballot or misplaced it might have used the ballot at the last minute, and it was among last counted. And/or the election officials may have set it aside, because it possible for voters to vote both an official absentee ballot and the write-in ballot.

This might have been especially true in Fairbanks because Wainwright is such a dominant presence.

Alaska’s federal overseas ballots are in fake HD 99. I don’t think they can vote on state races.

There is a legal distinction between people who have moved overseas permanently (or do not have a definite intent to return to the US). But intent can not be objectively determined, even by an individual themselves.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/overseaspermanentvoters.php

In any case, Congress has determined such citizens are entitled to vote in federal elections based on their last US domicile. But Alaska doesn't have to let them vote in state and local elections - they may in fact believe that if they ever do return to the US it will not be in Alaska. These persons get federal ballots (District 99) and only include three federal races.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/SampleBallot_2020_GEN.php

But voters who are temporarily overseas are treated the same as if they were in the US (their domicile has not changed). But the federal government has provided additional requirements such as ballots being mailed 45 days before an election to ensure time for the ballot to travel overseas and back. In general, voted ballots must have a wet signature, and thus can not be faxed or e-mailed, though the unmarked ballot might be (In Texas, voted ballots can be voted by e-mail if used from a .mil address. This might require assent to non-confidentiality. It gets really messy. Counties with lots of military voters (Bexar, Bell, and El Paso) have experimented with special servers that can anonymize and receive ballots - these require a special app that produces an encrypted file, which can be sent back. At other times, overseas voters have been expected to construct an envelope when they received a faxed ballot. The envelope had to be folded and taped together.

In addition, they can send in write-in ballots, which may require writing-in not only candidates but offices as well.

For HD-1 the last batch included 178 presidential votes, 99 senatorial votes, 101 congressional votes, and 89 question two votes. These were not all federal write-in ballots but many were. The write-in ballots might have been set aside to make sure that a regular mail ballot was not also received.

The reason that HD-6 and HD-9, 32, 37, 39, and 40 results were split is because those districts are divided between judicial districts, and have different ballot styles based on judicial races. See sample ballots above. Alaska has relatively few ballot styles because it US representative is elected at large, and house districts nest into senate district. If it weren't for the judicial districts, 41 ballot styles would be needed.

The judicial districts are long established - at one time census results were tabulated by judicial district. They also tend to be more or less permanent, it is messy for venue to change during multi-year litigation. They probably try to avoid have too many house districts crossing judicial districts, but that may hard to accomplish, particularly if keeping bush districts from going into cities.

[cinyc]

Anchorage absentee complete +309.
HD-37 absentee complete +91
HD-40 absentee complete +304

There are about 1000 Juneau mail ballots uncounted, and an uncertain number of questioned and early votes in HD-40.

Current margin +3856. Juneau will add +100. Final margin 1.12% (50.56% to 49.44%)

I don't think it's Juneau that's left. I think it's Fairbanks region's 1,2,4-6 and 9, plus maybe a little bit of 37. 40 should be done counting.

My guess is 830 votes or so remain - but it's just a guess. Could be up to 1,000.

Yes, I meant Fairbanks.

Their absentee ballots were completed on Wednesday, and I think the early vote and questioned vote were completed as well.

The link to the number of outstanding ballots has also disappeared so I think they are done.

Final margin is 1.10%.

An oddity is that the final ballots were heavily undervoted, except for President. I'm speculating that the very last ballots were Federal Overseas Write-in ballots, where you have to write in all office, and if it is not a federal office you have to write-in the office itself.

Persons who had not received a ballot or misplaced it might have used the ballot at the last minute, and it was among last counted. And/or the election officials may have set it aside, because it possible for voters to vote both an official absentee ballot and the write-in ballot.

This might have been especially true in Fairbanks because Wainwright is such a dominant presence.

Alaska’s federal overseas ballots are in fake HD 99. I don’t think they can vote on state races.

There is a legal distinction between people who have moved overseas permanently (or do not have a definite intent to return to the US). But intent can not be objectively determined, even by an individual themselves.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/overseaspermanentvoters.php

In any case, Congress has determined such citizens are entitled to vote in federal elections based on their last US domicile. But Alaska doesn't have to let them vote in state and local elections - they may in fact believe that if they ever do return to the US it will not be in Alaska. These persons get federal ballots (District 99) and only include three federal races.

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/SampleBallot_2020_GEN.php

But voters who are temporarily overseas are treated the same as if they were in the US (their domicile has not changed). But the federal government has provided additional requirements such as ballots being mailed 45 days before an election to ensure time for the ballot to travel overseas and back. In general, voted ballots must have a wet signature, and thus can not be faxed or e-mailed, though the unmarked ballot might be (In Texas, voted ballots can be voted by e-mail if used from a .mil address. This might require assent to non-confidentiality. It gets really messy. Counties with lots of military voters (Bexar, Bell, and El Paso) have experimented with special servers that can anonymize and receive ballots - these require a special app that produces an encrypted file, which can be sent back. At other times, overseas voters have been expected to construct an envelope when they received a faxed ballot. The envelope had to be folded and taped together.

In addition, they can send in write-in ballots, which may require writing-in not only candidates but offices as well.

For HD-1 the last batch included 178 presidential votes, 99 senatorial votes, 101 congressional votes, and 89 question two votes. These were not all federal write-in ballots but many were. The write-in ballots might have been set aside to make sure that a regular mail ballot was not also received.

The reason that HD-6 and HD-9, 32, 37, 39, and 40 results were split is because those districts are divided between judicial districts, and have different ballot styles based on judicial races. See sample ballots above. Alaska has relatively few ballot styles because it US representative is elected at large, and house districts nest into senate district. If it weren't for the judicial districts, 41 ballot styles would be needed.

The judicial districts are long established - at one time census results were tabulated by judicial district. They also tend to be more or less permanent, it is messy for venue to change during multi-year litigation. They probably try to avoid have too many house districts crossing judicial districts, but that may hard to accomplish, particularly if keeping bush districts from going into cities.

FWIW - this is the first time I've ever seen the HDs split in the txt results file. It will be interesting to see if they're still separated when the results go official.

[jimrtex]

FWIW - this is the first time I've ever seen the HDs split in the txt results file. It will be interesting to see if they're still separated when the results go official.

For the 2018 general election the precinct-level judicial results for HD-6 have the results for JD 3 (Gulf of Alaska) or JD 4 (Yukon and Kuskokwim basins) depending on which judicial district the precinct is in. It is quite likely that no precinct crosses a judicial district boundary.

But for HD-6 absentee ballots, the judicial races are treated as separate contests in the same area even though they weren't.

So for governor there were 14896 ballots, but for JD 3, 2028 ballots and JD 4, 12868 ballots.

14896 = 2028 + 12868.

You may have never looked at judicial races. Retention races are pretty boring unless there is an active campaign against a judge.

Being a modern state, Alaska may have more expedient ways of getting rid of a really corrupt judge.