Why is Oklahoma so Republican?

[Suburbia]

I would say Alabama is the most rightwing state.

Oklahoma elects Horn, Boren, etc.

Why is Oklahoma so Republican?

[catographer]

I can’t answer why, but I can describe this:

Western and central Oklahoma votes like the Great Plains and Kansas. Eastern Oklahoma votes like Arkansas. Oklahoma City and Tulsa are very white, medium size, low density cities outside of metropolitan areas.

[TML]

It was successfully targeted by Republicans using their "Southern Strategy" in the second half of the 20th century. The result is that even though there are still some counties where Democrats make up a plurality or majority of registered voters, most of these Democratic voters are "Dixiecrats" who usually vote Republican for high-level offices, just like much of the Deep South.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It’s a rural Great Plains state filled to the brim with white Evangelicals and blue-collar workers while its urban areas are low-density sprawlvilles centered around the fossil fuel industry.

The contemporary ethos of the Republican Party is custom fit for a state like this.

[Suburbia]

It’s a rural Great Plains state filled to the brim with white Evangelicals and blue-collar workers while its urban areas are low-density sprawlvilles centered around the fossil fuel industry.

The contemporary ethos of the Republican Party is custom fit for a state like this.

What about Alabama, it's more Republican than OK

Bill Clinton and Al Gore won counties in OK

[Zaybay]

Its a white southern state thats extremely Evangelical and relies on oil/gas for its economy.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It’s a rural Great Plains state filled to the brim with white Evangelicals and blue-collar workers while its urban areas are low-density sprawlvilles centered around the fossil fuel industry.

The contemporary ethos of the Republican Party is custom fit for a state like this.

What about Alabama, it's more Republican than OK

Bill Clinton and Al Gore won counties in OK

Alabama is not more Republican than Oklahoma

65-29 is a bigger margin than 62-34

You can make an inelasticity argument, but Clinton/Gore as a point? Really?

[Hope For A New Era]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

It was successfully targeted by Republicans using their "Southern Strategy" in the second half of the 20th century. The result is that even though there are still some counties where Democrats make up a plurality or majority of registered voters, most of these Democratic voters are "Dixiecrats" who usually vote Republican for high-level offices, just like much of the Deep South.

Which Southern Strategy? The Eisenhower Southern strategy or the Dubya demosaur strategy?Northern/Western Oklahoma has been heavily Republican since 1952 and little Dixie didn’t become apart of the Republican coalition until the 2000s after backing Stevenson, Johnson, Humphrey, Carter, Dukakis and Clinton and providing significant support for Kennedy and Mondale who still won many counties in the region). Also, Oklahoma Democrats are not Dixiecrats (backers of the states rights Democratic Party) nor is Oklahoma apart of the “Deep South” lol.

[Nyvin]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

OKC and Tulsa and their inner suburbs most definitely did indeed trend D both from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2018.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

OKC and Tulsa and their inner suburbs most definitely did indeed trend D both from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2018.

Doesn't change the fact that these areas are unlikely to flip just because "muh trends".

[Calthrina950]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

OKC and Tulsa and their inner suburbs most definitely did indeed trend D both from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2018.

Doesn't change the fact that these areas are unlikely to flip just because "muh trends".

Oklahoma County could very well flip with Joe Biden this year. There have been polls showing him leading in OK-05. Tulsa County, however, will probably be staying Republican for the foreseeable future, although it has certainly become more Democratic.

[Nyvin]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

OKC and Tulsa and their inner suburbs most definitely did indeed trend D both from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2018.

Doesn't change the fact that these areas are unlikely to flip just because "muh trends".

I'd say it's actually kinda likely Oklahoma County flips in 2020.   Nothing is showing it won't,  and we've seen bigger swings elsewhere before. 

Tulsa probably not for quite a while.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I definitely buy Oklahoma County being hypercompetitive in this election.
But simplistically saying areas will vote D because they are suburban, as if that is some sort of guarantee, is a real problem.
I can buy the idea of a nearly uniform reality of some sort of trend, but this isn't fundamentally due to the "suburban" thing. A big chunk of it is driven by two things in particular. 1) these areas are diversifying, but not just suburbs are doing this - rural areas like SW KS and parts of West Texas (such as Parmer County) are as well. 2) the GOP baseline in these areas are artifically boosted anyway due to the presence of Baby Boomers and other lifetime GOP voters.
Ultimately even in their worst case scenario the GOP has and will continue to win some select suburban areas that align with it especially well.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

OKC and Tulsa and their inner suburbs most definitely did indeed trend D both from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2018.

““Trends”” don’t last forever. Whilst the aforementioned demographic realities are relevant to the Tulsa and Oklahoma City metros they’ll remain in the GOP column. If Trump loses Oklahoma County, it’s because Biden has an Obama08 style victory. Conservative evangelicals are not going to start voting for a Liberal party just because they’re suburban.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very rural state full of religion and fossil fuels + suburban realignment hasn't really fully kicked in in the Plains yet. It seems to have hit Omaha first and is now gaining strength in Kansas City (faster on the Kansas side than on the Missouri side), so I imagine Oklahoma isn't too far off now.

Its not because they “haven’t caught up”, it’s because the demographics of suburban areas in Oklahoma differ GREATLY from say... Orange County, CA. They’re dominated by white evangelicals and are economically tied to a state heavily reliant on the energy and agricultural sectors. They vote Republican because the Republican Party aligns with their social and economic interests and that isn’t going to change. The idea of a “Suburban realignment” is stupid as suburbanites are the majority of the electorate and both parties have to be competitive with this group otherwise they simply could not win national elections or most state elections.

OKC and Tulsa and their inner suburbs most definitely did indeed trend D both from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2018.

““Trends”” don’t last forever. Whilst the aforementioned demographic realities are relevant to the Tulsa and Oklahoma City metros they’ll remain in the GOP column. If Trump loses Oklahoma County, it’s because Biden has an Obama08 style victory. Conservative evangelicals are not going to start voting for a Liberal party just because they’re suburban.

Trends also don't make for much in terms of actual flips if the baseline from which the trend is starting off is firm enough. Like you can say parts of West Texas are trending Dem, but does that mean they'd be able to elect a Dem to the House anytime soon? Unlikely.

[TDAS04]

No one said trends last forever.  I also doubt even Oklahoma County will vote for Biden this cycle.  Having said that, it's foolish to dismiss trends entirely.  After all, before 2000, who would have thought Marion County, IN, the heart of the Indy metro area, would be so Democratic now?  It didn't even vote for Bill Clinton.  Not all suburban areas are the same, and those with large evangelical populations will tend to remain more securely Republican than those without many evangelicals, but who knows what will happen in Oklahoma County down the road.  Being suburban may not even be the sole reason for recent Democratic trends; not everyone moving in is evangelical.

[libertpaulian]

I'll echo what's been said before.  "Suburban" doesn't necessarily mean it'll go Democratic long-term.  I mean, Vermont is extremely rural.  Does that mean it'll start voting Republican?

[Roll Roons]

I'll echo what's been said before.  "Suburban" doesn't necessarily mean it'll go Democratic long-term.  I mean, Vermont is extremely rural.  Does that mean it'll start voting Republican?

Some people on the forum actually think it could start trending Republican within the next decade. The state is old, rural and very white. If Maine flips, it's not impossible to see New Hampshire and Vermont come soon after.

[libertpaulian]

I'll echo what's been said before.  "Suburban" doesn't necessarily mean it'll go Democratic long-term.  I mean, Vermont is extremely rural.  Does that mean it'll start voting Republican?

Some people on the forum actually think it could start trending Republican within the next decade. The state is old, rural and very white. If Maine flips, it's not impossible to see New Hampshire and Vermont come soon after.

The difference is Vermont is full of white liberals.

[Adam Griffin]

Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern.

With that being said, let's have a brief chuckle at this:

[Sol]

Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern.

With that being said, let's have a brief chuckle at this:

I think there's a persuasive argument to be made otherwise.



Oklahoma party registration as of January 2018, by MB298 on Wikipedia

[DINGO Joe]

Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern.

With that being said, let's have a brief chuckle at this:

Just to nitpick, PA is at 58% D now

[Suburbia]

Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern. Oklahoma is not Southern.

With that being said, let's have a brief chuckle at this:

I think there's a persuasive argument to be made otherwise.



Oklahoma party registration as of January 2018, by MB298 on Wikipedia

Basically, Oklahoma has registered moderate Democrats then, so people like Inhofe and Lankford can be defeated, Stitt shouldn't even been elected governor.