Jindal would beat even Breaux? (Louisiana)

[Galactic Overlord]

http://www.newshorn.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=950&Itemid=116

Excerpt:

SpongeBob Odom, the defacto head of the Louisiana Democrat Party, caused a stir last month when he pronounced an end to the Blanco for re-election efforts in favor of his candidate, former U. S. Senator John Breaux (D - D.C.).

Odom said Ms. Blanco was alright, but that we needed new leadership.  He said he was conducting a poll to present to Breaux in hopes of coaxing the Edwin Edwards protégé to abandon easy street in Washington, D.C. to save Louisiana from the Republicans.

A source close to Odom has leaked the results of the Democrat poll.  It ain’t looking so good for Pretty Boy Breaux or for that matter, SpongeBob.  Jindal: 48%; Breaux 42%; undecided 10%.

You haven’t heard a peep out of Odom or Breaux since the poll.

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The idea that Jindal could defeat Breaux for governor is not something I would have thought likely.  If this poll is accurate, I can only guess that Jindal has cemented a large suburban/urban vote and has peeled off some rural areas as well. 

Needless to say, the source is not favorably disposed toward the Democrats (hence the disparging "Pretty Boy" comments) but I did find the poll intriguing, if this turns out to be true.

[Alcon]

Call me when we have a poll that hasn't been "leaked."

[Galactic Overlord]

It could be a hoax, but the possiblity is intriguing nonetheless.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It looks like the de-blacking will greatly help the Republican party.

[Alcon]

It could be a hoax, but the possiblity is intriguing nonetheless.

I know, I know, but...

1) It's a partisan poll.  They are rarely correct.  About 80% of the time they are too friendly to the party in question, 10% of the time they are right, and another 10% of the time they are just plain batty, no matter what the result.

2) It's some guy on the Internet with a source.  There are two levels at which the information could be wrong or distorted.

3) It's too early for polling to  be all that accurate anyway.

4) Louisiana caller rolls might be kind of messed up right now.

It's fun to consider, but that's pretty much it.

[Ben.]

No one would beat Breaux in Louisiana even after Katrina... my gut says that whole thing is a load of Hack chatter.

Sadly i doubt Breaux will run in '07 anyway, but you can always hope

[memphis]

It looks like the de-blacking will greatly help the Republican party.

Why assume that Katrina means only a loss of blacks? Jefferson Parish (suburban New Orleans) was hit really hard too. It was heavily white and Jindal's home base. We're going to have to wait until after an election to see what the result of the huirricane has been. I don't trust polls in LA, considering the situation on the ground there.

[Galactic Overlord]

Hmmm...another poll also shows Jindal up over Breaux.  This one is the Verne Kennedy poll, so we at least have a name on this one.  This one has a few Republicans and Democrats together, unlike the last one.

http://www.newshorn.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=953&Itemid=116

"The poll had Jindal at 39 percent, retired U.S. Sen. John Breaux 17 percent; Gov. Kathleen Blanco 16 percent, U.S. Sen. David Vitter 10 percent  and former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub 2 percent. Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard, PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell and state Sen. Walter Boasso each had 1 percent."

And as far as Jefferson Parish, a lot of residents have already returned.  Our population loss was not as big as New Orleans. 

[Sam Spade]

And as far as Jefferson Parish, a lot of residents have already returned.  Our population loss was not as big as New Orleans. 

Yep, that's what I've heard as well; that in Jefferson and St. Tammany Parish, a lot (most) of people have returned.   

The white parish that got extremely hard-hit where most people haven't returned is St. Bernard Parish (home of Atlasian poster BrandonH).  Problem is, it just really isn't that populated in comparison to Orleans Parish at all.

Of course, who knows how many of these people are in Baton Rouge and how many are in Texas and how many are miles and miles away.  And also, how many of these people have actually re-registered to vote where they are or maintain Louisiana voting status.

[jimrtex]

There is an article in the Houston Chronicle about a candidates forum for New Orleans mayoral candidates held on Saturday in Houston, with about half the 22 candidates expected.

There is a paragraph that says that 135,000 of 297,000 registered voters cast their vote in the 2002 mayoral election, and continues on with a report that 43,000 persons have notified the Louisiana government that they now reside in other states, and 85,000 in Louisiana outside New Orleans.  It is somewhat ambiguous, but I interpret it as meaning that 128,000 people have registered elsewhere, and the voting registrar in the new location has sent notification back to Louisiana (this may be a provision of HAVA?).

Early voting (April 10-13, and 15, the week before the election) is possible in 11 satellite locations around Louisiana, some in the immediate area (Covington, Marrero, Harahan, Amite), but also cities around the state.  There has been mentions in the Houston paper about organizing bus caravans to Lake Charles to vote), as well as assisting absentee voting.