538 model & poll tracker thread

[DaleCooper]

It's absolutely astounding to me that this model places Biden at a 78% chance to win Maine and just over 70% to win Minnesota.

[DaleCooper]

I don't understand this model and I haven't been paying any attention to it. I'm not interested in Nate Silver's gut feeling on the trajectory of the race. Just let the data stand on its own.

[DaleCooper]

It'd be nice if there was an "If the election were held today" toggle for the 538 forecast. I'm curious how much of the day-to-day chances here are based on the uncertainty factor.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1304480539676639233

Lol

[DaleCooper]

(snip)
Lol

He's as desperate for the horserace as the news media he claims to be above

But why Oregon? I just don't understand that.

[DaleCooper]

Recent positive polling for Biden in Minnesota took his win % from 69% to 82% in just under two weeks. Wisconsin also has also had a similar bounce from 66% to 77%.

Do we know if any of this is also due to the calendar slipping away from Trump? The polls have stayed quite constant, even Florida has been about +3 for a month now, so it would seem that the closer to the election, the less uncertainty there is, and Silver has admitted that the uncertainty is what is boosting Trump's chances the most.

[DaleCooper]

Biden's average lead in WI decreased in the poll tracker after his +10 CNN poll got added. Not sure what the deal is with that, just kind of funny.

[DaleCooper]

Biden's average lead in WI decreased in the poll tracker after his +10 CNN poll got added. Not sure what the deal is with that, just kind of funny.

Nate is saying that there's too many Wisconsin polls so it didn't do much, but I swear to god you know if that poll was like Biden +2 it would've moved much more!

But it moved it down. Also, the other WI polls tend to be higher too.

I don't consider this a team sport or anything. The polling averages aren't a scoreboard to me, I really don't care, but purely for informational purposes I would like to know what exactly is going on with these numbers so I have more of an idea of what to expect.

[DaleCooper]

Why do they have an option for a polls-only model for the Senate but not the presidency?

Because it would show Biden with higher chance of winning.

Nate is deathly afraid of making it look like Trump has no chance, so he's cooked the model this year to ensure Trump gets all of the favors... including gutting the polls-only model

I'm wondering what happens when we get to just one or two days before the election, assuming state polls stay steady. Silver said that Biden would have more than a 90-something % chance of winning if the election were held tomorrow, but I doubt he's comfortable with that being the last prediction on his model the day of the election.

[DaleCooper]

This is just embarrassing.

40,000 simulations or not, this shouldn't show up if you do 40,000,000 simulations.

Titanium Tilt R Florida and "Just Not There Yet" Georgia.