538 model & poll tracker thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden now at 85.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Today or tomorrow, Biden will probably cross from "Favored" to "Clearly Favored"

I think the "Clearly Favored" threshold is 90%. I'm sure range of expected outcomes will narrow as we get closer to election day, but I don't know if it will happen that quickly.

A continued onslaught of Biden +10% polls might do the trick, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I don't know why they're acting so confident.  They were wrong in 2016 and could definitely be wrong again.

[Ferguson97]

They were wrong in 2016 and could definitely be wrong again.

Come on man, you're smarter than this

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't know why they're acting so confident.  They were wrong in 2016 and could definitely be wrong again.

They weren't technically wrong. Saying something has a 31% chance of happenning that actually does end up happenning isn't wrong, and vise-versa with 69%. Also; the certainty for their 2020 model is far lower than their 2016 model, and yet it outputs Biden as a clear favorite. Statistical models aren't meant to be prefect; they're supposed to show where a race stands based upon the available data and how the model interprets that data. In my view, at least statistical models are better than speculative models since they are based on cold hard facts, and in general, well put together statistical models tend to hold up better than speculative models.

[Astatine]

I don't know why they're acting so confident.  They were wrong in 2016 and could definitely be wrong again.

They weren't technically wrong. Saying something has a 31% chance of happenning that actually does end up happenning isn't wrong, and vise-versa with 69%. Also; the certainty for their 2020 model is far lower than their 2016 model, and yet it outputs Biden as a clear favorite. Statistical models aren't meant to be prefect; they're supposed to show where a race stands based upon the available data and how the model interprets that data. In my view, at least statistical models are better than speculative models since they are based on cold hard facts, and in general, well put together statistical models tend to hold up better than speculative models.

This.

When a candidate has a 15 % chance of winning, why do many interpret that as if he has already lost?

Dying in the first round of a Russian roulette game is about as probable, so according to that logic, why bother about possibly dying when the chances are "just 17 %"?

[ultraviolet]

I could be wrong but I think MacArthur is doing some sort of mocking? He lectures us all the time on stuff like this so

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't know why they're acting so confident.  They were wrong in 2016 and could definitely be wrong again.

They weren't technically wrong. Saying something has a 31% chance of happenning that actually does end up happenning isn't wrong, and vise-versa with 69%. Also; the certainty for their 2020 model is far lower than their 2016 model, and yet it outputs Biden as a clear favorite. Statistical models aren't meant to be prefect; they're supposed to show where a race stands based upon the available data and how the model interprets that data. In my view, at least statistical models are better than speculative models since they are based on cold hard facts, and in general, well put together statistical models tend to hold up better than speculative models.

This.

When a candidate has a 15 % chance of winning, why do many interpret that as if he has already lost?

Dying in the first round of a Russian roulette game is about as probable, so according to that logic, why bother about possibly dying when the chances are "just 17 %"?

Exactly.  One way I like to help people visualize small probabilities (we were talking about an estimated 1% chance of dying from COVID) was this: would you go to a game at Sanford Stadium (the University of Georgia's football stadium, which seats 90,000) if they announced they were going to randomly choose 900 of the people there to be killed afterward?

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think Trump is dust.

The COVID-19 infection was the nail in the coffin for undecided voters.

[GeneralMacArthur]

You guys are all bashing me and the joke went right over your head.  Read the Fivey Fox quote box.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ugh that Rasmussen TX poll is keeping Trump from falling below 70%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

[Crumpets]

Some of us just do it the hard way and use MS Paint. Everything more difficult than that for me might as well require a Comp Sci degree.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Some of us just do it the hard way and use MS Paint. Everything more difficult than that for me might as well require a Comp Sci degree.

I don't even know how to do things like this in MS Paint. So you're still more tech-savvy than I am.

I still haven't figured out how to post images and maps on this very forum, and I've been here over two years!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fivey Fox is cringy as hell but the parodies are cringier.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

0.4% popular vote gap in Georgia now, closest it's ever been

Again, that damn 'Incumbency and Economics' caveat

[Gass3268]

0.4% popular vote gap in Georgia now, closest it's ever been

Again, that damn 'Incumbency and Economics' caveat

We haven't had a GA poll since Trump tested positive.

[Gustaf]

0.4% popular vote gap in Georgia now, closest it's ever been

Again, that damn 'Incumbency and Economics' caveat

The "Incumbency and Economics" factor is falling fast now. I think Silver said recently that Trump would be at 5% if the election were now with these polls.

[Orser67]

Biden's national lead now over ten points in the 538 tracker:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1314556769226682369

I think this is the first time he's had a lead of at least ten points nationally?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I am so happy.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Biden's national lead now over ten points in the 538 tracker:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1314556769226682369

I think this is the first time he's had a lead of at least ten points nationally?

I believe it is.

I'm wondering if Clinton's 6.5 point lead was partially due to Access Hollywood two days previous. Her bump from that peaked at 7.1% (RCP), then crashed after Comey announced he was taking a close-up look at Weiner.

That brings up another point: Oct, 2016 was a crazy month of bombshell news stories and constantly swinging undecideds. 2020 is the polar opposite of that. Biden has led by 6 points or more since George Floyd, and I can't imagine anything short of Biden being incapacitated dropping his lead below 6 points between now and the election.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I wonder how long Biden's polling average margin needs to stay north of 10 points before the odds of a Biden landslide ticks up to 50%. It's currently at 36%.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's national lead now over ten points in the 538 tracker:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1314556769226682369

I think this is the first time he's had a lead of at least ten points nationally?

I believe it is.

I'm wondering if Clinton's 6.5 point lead was partially due to Access Hollywood two days previous. Her bump from that peaked at 7.1% (RCP), then crashed after Comey announced he was taking a close-up look at Weiner.

That brings up another point: Oct, 2016 was a crazy month of bombshell news stories and constantly swinging undecideds. 2020 is the polar opposite of that. Biden has led by 6 points or more since George Floyd, and I can't imagine anything short of Biden being incapacitated dropping his lead below 6 points between now and the election.

Well plus, even when Clinton has a +6.5 lead, it's only like 46.5-40.0 with crazy amounts of undecideds.

[Orser67]

Here's 538's national tracker for 2016. Purely in terms of margin, the chart does give some hope to the GOP in that Clinton had a 7-point lead at one point in October. But, as has been discussed a lot on this forum, Biden has a more stable lead and has almost always been above 50% since mid-June, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in late October.

[American2020]

It's tossup in Georgia now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/