538 model & poll tracker thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 10, 2024, 01:57:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  538 model & poll tracker thread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 40
Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 57804 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: July 28, 2020, 12:07:39 AM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on July 19, 2020, 07:19:07 AM
Good find, I expect you're right.


Quote from: Alben Barkley on July 19, 2020, 01:35:53 AM
He did this already in the primaries. After Super Tuesday it took him FOREVER to release the updated model showing Biden with a 99% chance of winning. And I have no doubt it was because he feared the wrath of the bros even though he was right.

What malarkey, he updated within 2 days.
Grow up, outside of high school hanging on to grudges won't get you far.


Not holding on to grudges, that’s simply not the way I remember it. If I’m wrong I’ll happily admit it. But I distinctly recall that at SOME point Silver seemed to hold out on releasing a model update for an abnormal length of time, then when it was released it showed a massive lopsided Biden victory. I at least thought it was right after Super Tuesday. And given he immediately released the updated model post-SC (which somehow showed Biden’s chances slightly decreasing, I remember incredulously), those two days would have felt like a while in comparison.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: July 28, 2020, 04:07:52 AM »
Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: July 28, 2020, 04:30:06 AM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on July 28, 2020, 04:07:52 AM
Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.

Nor should he rush it. He doesn't have an obligation to release one at all
Logged
American2020
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,507
Côte d'Ivoire


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: July 28, 2020, 07:50:22 AM »












Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,813


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: July 28, 2020, 08:03:57 AM »
We'll see what the finished product looks like, but my first thought on reading those tweets was "they're trying too hard".
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,383


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: July 28, 2020, 08:04:47 AM »
Quote from: Monstro on July 28, 2020, 04:30:06 AM
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on July 28, 2020, 04:07:52 AM
Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.

Nor should he rush it. He doesn't have an obligation to release one at all

I mean, he does though? He runs a politics website that relies on advertising dollars, especially after it was bought by ABC. They need clicks and views and the forecast is a huge part of the website every 4 years.
Logged
Roblox
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: July 28, 2020, 08:06:37 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 28, 2020, 08:03:57 AM
We'll see what the finished product looks like, but my first thought on reading those tweets was "they're trying too hard".

Yeah they seem way overly worried about the kinds of people who reply with "lol remember 2016" because they think 71%=100%.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,881
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: July 28, 2020, 08:09:49 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 28, 2020, 08:03:57 AM
We'll see what the finished product looks like, but my first thought on reading those tweets was "they're trying too hard".

Pretty much this. I understand the 2016 PTSD, but why not just copy and adapt their 2018 graphics?

They were simple and straight to the point really. And the "7 in 8" instead of 87.5% thing helped to convey probabilities better.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,757
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: July 28, 2020, 08:26:15 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 28, 2020, 08:03:57 AM
We'll see what the finished product looks like, but my first thought on reading those tweets was "they're trying too hard".
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,752
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: July 28, 2020, 08:37:37 AM »
What a convoluted mess.
Logged
ultraviolet
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,951
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -3.22

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: July 28, 2020, 08:38:29 AM »
Quote from: Grillpill Ethusiasts on July 20, 2020, 09:52:50 PM
Quote from: Epaminondas on July 19, 2020, 07:19:07 AM
Good find, I expect you're right.


Quote from: Alben Barkley on July 19, 2020, 01:35:53 AM
He did this already in the primaries. After Super Tuesday it took him FOREVER to release the updated model showing Biden with a 99% chance of winning. And I have no doubt it was because he feared the wrath of the bros even though he was right.

What malarkey, he updated within 2 days.
Grow up, outside of high school hanging on to grudges won't get you far.

Hell I'm pretty sure the model started showing Biden winning more delegates headed into super Tuesday lol.

I remember they had a Super Tuesday simulator and it definitely still had Bernie as the favorite at that point.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: July 28, 2020, 11:17:48 AM »
Quote from: American2020 on July 28, 2020, 07:50:22 AM














Why are MN and NM deep red on all those maps!!??
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: July 28, 2020, 11:20:53 AM »
Also, if this is the actual forecast I'd puke. IL, WA both more competative than AZ!? Give me a break.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,540
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: July 28, 2020, 11:25:17 AM »
They are just discussing their graphics and how they are going to present their model. I imagine the data is fake. Chill.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,813


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: July 28, 2020, 11:26:06 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 28, 2020, 11:25:17 AM
They are just discussing their graphics and how they are going to present their model. I imagine the data is fake. Chill.

The tweet thread even says it has fake data.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: July 28, 2020, 11:27:26 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 28, 2020, 11:26:06 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 28, 2020, 11:25:17 AM
They are just discussing their graphics and how they are going to present their model. I imagine the data is fake. Chill.

The tweet thread even says it has fake data.


Oh ok good. I saw the image and then I started freaking out for a bit
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,383


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: July 28, 2020, 11:27:55 AM »
omg but also who cares about the graphics at this point? they've been teasing this sh**t for what feels like forever. just release the damn thing
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: July 28, 2020, 11:33:49 AM »
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,813


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: July 28, 2020, 11:59:25 AM »

Logged
politics_king
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,591
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: July 28, 2020, 12:04:27 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 28, 2020, 11:59:25 AM



Biden's numbers are looking very good. Trump is back to going off script, the conventions should favor the Democrats and the debates. Trump thinks he can campaign like 2016, people don't want to hear it, especially during a pandemic.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,383


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: July 28, 2020, 12:48:42 PM »
LOL @ the people saying Silver has no duty to release his model. He literally runs an election/politics website. That is what they do!!!! Not to mention now he has a duty to get web traffic for ABC, and the model is a huge part of that.

Silver continues to delay it and just tweet bad COVID takes. Not sure what his issue is.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: July 28, 2020, 01:40:28 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 28, 2020, 11:20:53 AM
Also, if this is the actual forecast I'd puke. IL, WA both more competative than AZ!? Give me a break.


"It's...it's all Vermont?"

*click* "Always has been"
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,760
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: July 28, 2020, 01:48:19 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 28, 2020, 11:20:53 AM
Also, if this is the actual forecast I'd puke. IL, WA both more competative than AZ!? Give me a break.



Vermont and New York are taking over.
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,550


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: July 28, 2020, 01:53:08 PM »
In other news: don’t look now, but Biden is back in the lead on their Texas polling aggregate...
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: July 28, 2020, 02:18:05 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on July 28, 2020, 01:48:19 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on July 28, 2020, 11:20:53 AM
Also, if this is the actual forecast I'd puke. IL, WA both more competative than AZ!? Give me a break.



Vermont and New York are taking over.

Maybe the left really does take over the US, and there is a backlash against them
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 40  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 10 queries.