Moray By-election (Holyrood)

[afleitch]

So where will Tory votes go?

To the Tories? They should finish second in  Moray and the SNP seem worried that the Tories could at the very least be taking votes away from their candidate and might even have a chance of winning the seat. 

Thats actually what I've been hearing. The Tories made a strong start to the campign too, and I wonder how this will affect it. I'm hoping to see Labours vote fall as it will be yet another example of the possible double figure swing away from them that appears to be happening.

[Harry Hayfield]

Here's the % swings needed for each party to gain Moray (compared with Election 2003)

Conservatives: 9.85%
Labour: 11.54%
Liberal Democrats: 15.02%
Scottish Socialists: 19.09%

[Ben.]

Here's the % swings needed for each party to gain Moray (compared with Election 2003)

Conservatives: 9.85%
Labour: 11.54%
Liberal Democrats: 15.02%
Scottish Socialists: 19.09%

Supposing a swing from the SNP to the Tories took place and that was supported by a the defection of leftie SNP’ers and Labourites to the LibDems a Tory win would be a strong possibility.

No doubt I'll be disappointed and see the SNP hang on... but it'd be interesting to see a Tory win, so I hope what Afleitch reports is true, what evidence of the Tory campaign I’ve seen seems pretty solid, so we might see a Tory by-election win which would be very satisfying, especially in Scotland and over the SNP.   

[Voice from the South West]

Here's the % swings needed for each party to gain Moray (compared with Election 2003)

Conservatives: 9.85%
Labour: 11.54%
Liberal Democrats: 15.02%
Scottish Socialists: 19.09%

Supposing a swing from the SNP to the Tories took place and that was supported by a the defection of leftie SNP’ers and Labourites to the LibDems a Tory win would be a strong possibility.

No doubt I'll be disappointed and see the SNP hang on... but it'd be interesting to see a Tory win, so I hope what Afleitch reports is true, what evidence of the Tory campaign I’ve seen seems pretty solid, so we might see a Tory by-election win which would be very satisfying, especially in Scotland and over the SNP.   

Not that I have a clue what’s going on up there, but the letter fiasco can't have done the Tory campaign any good - what is it with this party and incompetent/poor by-election campaigns, sometimes I think I could run a better campaign than they do - so I'm not terribly optimistic. I've been lead up the garden path too may times by optimistic by-election predictions so I suspect a comfortable SNP hold on a low turn-out.

Your optimism makes me wonder Ben, have you officially converted to the Tories?

[Ben.]

Your optimism makes me wonder Ben, have you officially converted to the Tories?

I havent got any desire to see Labour do well, and yes I'd like to see the Tories do well at the moment, however its all fairly dispationate really... overall it seems that the Tories still have a long way to go to recovery (though their making progress), the LibDems have sunken into irrelevance and Labour seem to have given up governing the country all together.

[Voice from the South West]

Perhaps my pessimism was slightly misplaced:

http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=589402006

Is this by-election really as bitter as this? All we need now is for someone to accuse the SNP of dirty tricks for accusing the other parties of dirty tricks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps my pessimism was slightly misplaced:

http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=589402006

Oh God... not them *as well*... I'm so glad I don't live in Moray...

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Yes, it is that bitter. The SNP are clearly rather worried about this and what effect it might have on them... next years Scottish elections are already looking very confused (although I will say that what poll numbers I've seen are quite similer to those seen in 2003) and a further blow to the reputation of the SNP's by-election machine is really not what they need now.

[Voice from the South West]

The thing is, its become so "bitter" to the point where its laughable. No wonder why by-election turn out is so low when all this almost comical mud-slinging goes on.

[Ben.]

Election day... any news?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not heard anything

[afleitch]

Not heard anything

It's been affected by 'yellow noise'; Liberal Democratic supporters overhyping their own position throughout the campaign. So much of the information coming through is unreliable I'd say.

[Harry Hayfield]

Turnout has been described as "passable" on one of the internet groups dealing with elections. As the turnout in 2003 was 46%, passable to me indicates less than 10% after about 6 hours of polling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not heard anything

It's been affected by 'yellow noise'; Liberal Democratic supporters overhyping their own position throughout the campaign. So much of the information coming through is unreliable I'd say.

God I hate yellow noise... the irritating thing about it is that it sometimes isn't a load of complete [expletive deleted...

Predictions anyone?

[afleitch]

Seems to be have been rainy today.

SNP 'confident' of victory- but it's tight

While I would like to believe the Tories will finish second I have a bad feeling about a Lib Dem surge cause by Labour voters (remembering Labour fished 3rd last time round) switching to the Lib Dems.

[Harry Hayfield]

Benchmarks:

SNP hold with an increased majority: SNP success, roll on 2007
SNP hold with a decreased majority: SNP will claim sucess (but focus on Lab to SNP swing)

Con gain: Conservatives on the up in Scotland, Cameron rushes up to Moray to welcome new member of Conservative Parliamentary group
Lib Dem gain: Liberal Democrats main challengers across the whole of Scotland, Ceredigion at Election 2005 was not a fluke
Lab gain: (okay unlikely) Blair is in power for ever!

[Harry Hayfield]

Latest indications from Moray (with Elgin boxes at the count). Information from BBC Scotland

Turnout: Low 40's%
Suggested Result:

SNP winning by a clear margin
Labour a poor fourth
Con and Lib Dem challenging for second
No indications given for NHS First candidate

Past declaration times and turnouts:

2005: 2.22am (58.4%) (5 candidates)
2001: 2.15am (57.3%) (7 candidates)
1997: 1.09am (68.2%) (5 candidates)

[afleitch]

Yes- Brian Taylor is a stellar analyst (he got the Lib Dem surge in Dunfermline before the betting markets did). SNP should be relieved. As for Labour- the swing is important.

[Voice from the South West]

If we (Tories) come third then that is a thoroughly risible result. Heads should roll for this; I hope the constituency agent/organiser is never hired again.

[Harry Hayfield]

Turnout: 45.7% (-0.6% on 2003)

Information: ITV 1 Grampian

[afleitch]

If we (Tories) come third then that is a thoroughly risible result. Heads should roll for this; I hope the constituency agent/organiser is never hired again.

If the Tories come third, but with an increased % vote (remember, the Tories were pretty far behind - there are dozens of other seats they wish to target in 2007 before Moray) then it will be an acceptable result.

[Harry Hayfield]

Benchmarks (based on turnout report):

SNP Success: Any majority greater than 5,476 (over Con)
5% level: 1,391 (anything below this level indicate a lost depoist)

[Voice from the South West]

If we (Tories) come third then that is a thoroughly risible result. Heads should roll for this; I hope the constituency agent/organiser is never hired again.

If the Tories come third, but with an increased % vote (remember, the Tories were pretty far behind - there are dozens of other seats they wish to target in 2007 before Moray) then it will be an acceptable result.

Well lets wait for the final result, it's been a long day for me (uni work) and will probably be longer still. Will post something more thoughtful tomorrow.

[afleitch]

Oh the debate on Scottish TV is fantastic - Alex Salmond is savaging the Lib Dems fraudulent election campaign. Northern Scot newspaper praised for exposing Lib Dems 'deceit.'

[Harry Hayfield]

Mr. Miller predicting a Ind HOLD in Blaenau Gwent???

[afleitch]

Apparently: SNP first, Con in 2nd up 2 %, Lib Dem 3rd, Labour..well..