Booker really does seem to be getting a late surge, and a big one at that. I’d still say McGrath is favored, but I’m starting to believe that Booker really could pull off an upset.
I basically agree with this. But I think that DFP poll with Booker ahead was an outlier. This poll fits my priors much better: Booker leading in Louisville, close in Lexington, down everywhere else. That’s basically how I see the race most likely turning out, though I also would not be totally surprise if Booker pulls off an upset.