KY-Democratic Primary - McGrath internal: McGrath +10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1273950567526797312

[brucejoel99]

This is one strange race. Somebody who has such a massive cash advantage like McGrath shouldn't even be involved in this close of a race, but Booker basically has the entirety of the KY Democratic Party behind him, which will hopefully play better than McGrath's endorsements.

Tuesday (& the rest of the results coming in over the week) will be really interesting to watch.

[Xing]

Booker really does seem to be getting a late surge, and a big one at that. I’d still say McGrath is favored, but I’m starting to believe that Booker really could pull off an upset.

[Alben Barkley]

Booker really does seem to be getting a late surge, and a big one at that. I’d still say McGrath is favored, but I’m starting to believe that Booker really could pull off an upset.

I basically agree with this. But I think that DFP poll with Booker ahead was an outlier. This poll fits my priors much better: Booker leading in Louisville, close in Lexington, down everywhere else. That’s basically how I see the race most likely turning out, though I also would not be totally surprise if Booker pulls off an upset.