IA-Selzer: Trump +1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not buying this poll, if Greenfield is leading, then Biden will win the state and 3 Dem incumbents will survive

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How the heck is Ernst underperforming Trump

Hes not, if Biden is leading by 9 pts, then Biden will win IA. Polls are based on turnout

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont need to win IA, Dems only IA is only critical in Congressional races and Senate, since IA will gove Ds 51 votes instead of 50, and incumbent House members are critical for House majority.

Ernst is just as endangered as Collins and Tillis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

Trump just at 44% should worry him to an extent, but I'm not convinced IA will flip for Biden. It's going to be closer than 2016 for sure.

Yeah and Collins in the ME is up by 1 as well, is that Likely R. OH, IA and FL all flipped when Obama and Biden won the PVI hy 4 points in 2012. I can see all 3 flipping again in this climate, it doesnt take much in 10.1 percent unemployment to have a natl tide: 2008 and 2010 proved this point

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is gonna be some split voting, I wouldn't mind if Collins sticks around either. But, Ernst is far more conservative than Collins and dont want her to stick around.

Dems arent gonna sweep everything, just like TX can vote to left of FL, given that Mexican Latinos are more liberal than Cubans and PR.