AR-Hendrix: Trump +2

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Vaguely reminds me of that poll that had McCain up by only three in Louisiana immediately before the 2008 election.

This poll is, unquestionably, an insane outlier. But an insane outlier a month ago probably would have had Trump up 10. There's meaning here, even if it's wildly exaggerated.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If Biden was actually only down 2 in Arkansas, he should be up like 15 in Iowa and like 27 nationally. Clearly those aren't the numbers we're seeing, so needless to say, this poll is an extreme outlier.

Still, just for fun here's what the map might look like if there actually was a 25 point uniform swing from 2016:

Biden: 478
Trump: 60

Note Nebraska (statewide) would be almost exactly tied here, but I'm assuming most of the third party vote goes to Biden, giving him the edge.

Best part of this is Biden would be taking something like 103% of the vote in Washington DC, with Trump around -8%.