IA (Selzer)- Greenfield +3

[S019]

I am confused at how Ernst has managed to blow this race. Anyways obligatory ratings change, Lean R--->Tossup, also shows us PPP and Civiqs were on to something. Not good news for Ernst, at all.

[S019]

Now, where are the people who said this was likely R bodering safe R due to Ernst being a Strong Incumbent^TM?

I'm willing to argue it was at the beginning of the cycle, but Ernst is blowing this race, and if Republicans are actually losing the NPV by 12 or 13 in November, I'd expect this seat to be hotly contested. Also Iowa is definitely a state that would wildly swing to the Democrats in a landslide, given its elasticity. It's kind of baffling to me how she's suddenly collapsed, but I guess national Democrats were on to something when they said they saw opportunity in this seat. Anyways, my guess is Ernst would win by 1 or 2 at the end of the day, but this race is now clearly a tossup, which is terrible news for Senate Republicans' hopes of holding the chamber (they need to win this seat and by a somewhat sizable margin to have any hopes of keeping the majority, especially given the partisan leans and demographics of the other battlegrounds (such as NC, GA, and AZ)).

[S019]

Not buying it

Why?

Because he's a Republican hack, who would insist that they would pick up 12 Senate seats in if the NPV was like D+18. Just put him on ignore, I did it a while back, and it improved my forum experience (also please don't respond to him, because then he responds to everyone who responds to him, and then derails the thread).

[S019]

If Ernst does end up loosing, how many seats would Dems get?

My guess is that CO, AZ, NC have fallen for sure, both GA seats, MT and ME also probably fell, and one of KS/TX also went D at that point.