|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 20, 2020, 03:37:31 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  IA (Selzer)- Greenfield +3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: IA (Selzer)- Greenfield +3  (Read 2059 times)
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,496
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 13, 2020, 06:02:28 pm »

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/13/iowa-poll-theresa-greenfield-leads-joni-ernst-tight-senate-race/5346215002/

Greenfield     46
Ernst             43
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2020, 06:03:10 pm »

LOVE IT!
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,913
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2020, 06:03:24 pm »
« Edited: June 13, 2020, 06:09:41 pm by LCameronOR »

PogChamp
Logged
Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019
S019
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,271
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2020, 06:03:30 pm »

I am confused at how Ernst has managed to blow this race. Anyways obligatory ratings change, Lean R--->Tossup, also shows us PPP and Civiqs were on to something. Not good news for Ernst, at all.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,881
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2020, 06:04:21 pm »

OH YEAH!
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2020, 06:05:44 pm »

Quote
Greenfield leads 71% to 19% among likely voters who do not have a religious affiliation and 55% to 34% with those who live in cities. She earns a plurality or majority of the vote in every congressional district except the 4th, which is the most Republican-leaning in the state.

Women choose Greenfield by 20 percentage points, 54% to 34%. White women without a college degree choose Greenfield by an even larger margin: 60% to 29%.

Oof...
Logged
Devils30
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,486
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2020, 06:08:10 pm »

Did they poll the Presidential?
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,248


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2020, 06:08:15 pm »

Okay this is worthy of seriously contesting now even if I don’t trust polling in this state.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Moderators
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,980
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2020, 06:11:23 pm »


Yes, they're releasing that later this weekend.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,860
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2020, 06:12:53 pm »

Ernst is a paper tiger and I always suspected that. She got elected in a good year for Republicans and her political invisibility was declared too early on. This will be the first time in 30 years that a freshman Senator has been up for re-election in that state and incumbency alone is probably not enough to get someone re-elected.
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,213
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2020, 06:13:28 pm »

Good news
Logged
doomer sawx 2: it gets even worse
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,145
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2020, 06:14:10 pm »

Excuse me?
Logged
Minnesota Mike
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,364


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2020, 06:26:11 pm »


Yes, they're releasing that later this weekend.

Since they mentioned Greenfield led in every CD but the 4th I am hoping we get some congressional district results as well.
Logged
#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,105


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2020, 06:27:55 pm »

Was not expecting this race to be competitive.
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2020, 06:28:47 pm »
« Edited: June 13, 2020, 06:56:15 pm by Make PA Blue Again! »

Favorables:

Ernst: 45/40% (+5)
Greenfield: 41/20% (+21)

Greenfield is also leading Ernst in the first, second, and third congressional districts. Good news for Axne, Finkenauer, and Hart.
Logged
soundchaser
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 539


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2020, 06:29:04 pm »

Good stuff! Gonna have to move Iowa to a tossup pretty soon.

Also, that “white woman without a college degree” statistic does not bode well for Trump...
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,112
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2020, 06:29:24 pm »

If Civiqs is right here, maybe they're right in Kansas and Georgia and those are toss-ups too. Wow.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,174
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2020, 06:29:43 pm »

Selzer is still the gold standard in Iowa, right? With that being the case, this has truly become a surprise pickup opportunity that makes Democratic chances at flipping the chamber all the more possible.
Logged
libertpaulian
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,042
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2020, 06:31:37 pm »

And people said that Cal Cunningham and Theresa Greenfield were recruitment screw-ups...
Logged
Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2020, 06:39:49 pm »

An excellent point from Nate Silver.

Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,213
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2020, 06:56:11 pm »

If Rs lose IA, they wont have 50 seats, they will have 49 or less. Ernst and Collins miscalculated when they voted to acquit Trump and voted for both Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.  Voters arent gonna tolerate female Senators wanting to run on funding planned Parenthood but vote for originalist judges that hurt minority rights especially Gorsuch
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,121
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2020, 07:00:26 pm »

Good for Ernst
Logged
RIP RBG
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 390
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2020, 07:01:32 pm »

Now, where are the people who said this was likely R bodering safe R due to Ernst being a Strong IncumbentTM?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,858


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2020, 07:03:02 pm »

An excellent point from Nate Silver.


And people said that Cal Cunningham and Theresa Greenfield were recruitment screw-ups...


Likely a case of rising tide lifting all boats. The environment right now is really bad for Trump's GOP, so therefore it is likely gonna be bad in the senate. If it stays this bad or gets worse by October and November...oh boy. 
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,213
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 13, 2020, 07:07:57 pm »

People that say that IA is safe R should be put on mute, since this isnt 2016 anymore
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.105 seconds with 14 queries.