Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee (Jun 2020)

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Actually I'm going to ignore your question and tell you who won't be the nominee in 2024:


Anyone from 2016.  Regardless of their merits as a candidate, I can't see Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Rand Paul, Scott Walker (even if he returns to the governor's mansion)or Kasich gaining traction. Cruz and Rubio, if anyone would have the best chance.

It's not going to be an influencer like Ben Shapiro or Don Jr.  Tucker, as much as I like him wouldn't get far.

Tim Scott hasn't signaled any interest and I doubt Baker wants the job, and James would need to win the Senate race this year to have a shot.  Matt Gaetz is too fringe to catch on and Crenshaw's relationship with the trumpian base isn't as good as you'd think, and is "just" a house member.  I'm not sure how seriously I take Kobach as a potential candidate, and Liz Cheney has "Cheney" as her last name.

Romney and Paul Ryan are persona non grata in the modern GOP, and justifiably so.

Trump would be 78 and in less than ideal health-he already looks exhausted and I don't think he wants the job, rather a peaceful retirement.  Assuming Biden wins this year, that takes Mike Pence out of consideration, who would be the frontrunner if Trump won.



That leaves these candidates as finalists:

Nikki Haley: experienced, great resume, theoretically strong with suburban and nonwhite voters, questionable strength among base.

Ron DeSantis:stipulating his re-election success, the best-rounded candidate the GOP has in terms of demographic appeal, strong and popular leader of one of the largest states.

Josh Hawley:the logical path of the GOP's economic populism, but quite young and his appeal outside of the base is unknown.

Tom Cotton: foreign policy and crime hawk, knows the pulse of the Trumpian base, but like Hawley his appeal outside of it is untested.

Rick Scott: Ruthlessly ambitious and personally wealthy. Might have suburban-base appeal but his Florida record has skeletons.  Will be 72 in 2024.

Mike Pompeo: Has genuine foreign policy bonafides and a strong record as SOS.  Wants the job.


possibly Mike Pence or Ted Cruz. Both of whom definitely want the job.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I remembered now that Rubio has tried to take more populist positions after Trump was elected-he joined Ivanka for a maternity leave proposal, and last year he called for a "common good" capitalism, quoting Pope Leo.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelposner/2019/12/12/marco-rubios-common-good-capitalism-is-just-what-we-need/#54fd18de5f22

National Review's Kevin D. Williamson isn't a fan unsurprisingly.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/marco-rubio-elizabeth-warren-capitalism-common-good-argument/

This is probably the best evidence of Rubio angling for a 2024 run.

Paul Ryan is currently the most likely person to be the 47th president of the united states.

Thats... quite the take.  Would you explain how?

[Nightcore Nationalist]

DeSantis

He has blown his chances with his coronavirus response and currently has mediocre approvals. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he lost in 2022.

DeSantis was character assassinated by the media, the same media that completely ignored Andrew Cuomo and Tom Wolf sending COVID-positive patients back into nursing homes, killing thousands of seniors.  His approvals will recover to a large extent.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Haley would never get the Nomination and struggle in the South is just pure FANTASY on your behalf.
It's also somewhat racism as well as you don't want someone with a Name "Nimratha" in the WH.
She is from the South. She would clean up the South probably the same way Trump cleaned up Ted Cruz Evangelical Base which is many pundits pegged Cruz to beat Trump.
She would win States like SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, OK, VA and NC.
Cruz won only OK in 2016.

If Haley wants this it's hers and these other Republicans have to come together and accept that - Period.

Although I don't think Haley has a "lock" on the entire south, she is heavily favored in SC, I could easily see her winning NC and FL if DeSantis sits this one out and Rick Scott doesn't run.  She might also do alright in the west and northeast.

The only shot Pence has is if a) the Trump loss is extraordinarily close (closer than 16's 78K votes)  and B) Trump endorses him immediately.  I don't think either is that likely-Trump will still have alot of sway and wait until the primaries to play kingmaker.  That said Pence definitely wants the job, at least back in 2016.





Also bumping this to page 2 since it's the most detailed analysis in the entire thread.

Actually I'm going to ignore your question and tell you who won't be the nominee in 2024:


Anyone from 2016.  Regardless of their merits as a candidate, I can't see Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Rand Paul, Scott Walker (even if he returns to the governor's mansion)or Kasich gaining traction. Cruz and Rubio, if anyone would have the best chance.

It's not going to be an influencer like Ben Shapiro or Don Jr.  Tucker, as much as I like him wouldn't get far.

Tim Scott hasn't signaled any interest and I doubt Baker wants the job, and James would need to win the Senate race this year to have a shot.  Matt Gaetz is too fringe to catch on and Crenshaw's relationship with the trumpian base isn't as good as you'd think, and is "just" a house member.  I'm not sure how seriously I take Kobach as a potential candidate, and Liz Cheney has "Cheney" as her last name.

Romney and Paul Ryan are persona non grata in the modern GOP, and justifiably so.

Trump would be 78 and in less than ideal health-he already looks exhausted and I don't think he wants the job, rather a peaceful retirement.  Assuming Biden wins this year, that takes Mike Pence out of consideration, who would be the frontrunner if Trump won.



That leaves these candidates as finalists:

Nikki Haley: experienced, great resume, theoretically strong with suburban and nonwhite voters, questionable strength among base.

Ron DeSantis:stipulating his re-election success, the best-rounded candidate the GOP has in terms of demographic appeal, strong and popular leader of one of the largest states.

Josh Hawley:the logical path of the GOP's economic populism, but quite young and his appeal outside of the base is unknown.

Tom Cotton: foreign policy and crime hawk, knows the pulse of the Trumpian base, but like Hawley his appeal outside of it is untested.

Rick Scott: Ruthlessly ambitious and personally wealthy. Might have suburban-base appeal but his Florida record has skeletons.  Will be 72 in 2024.

Mike Pompeo: Has genuine foreign policy bonafides and a strong record as SOS.  Wants the job.


possibly Mike Pence or Ted Cruz. Both of whom definitely want the job.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

GOP is not nominating a woman of color in 4 years.

Haley is one of the favorites of the GOP establishment and movement conservatives, so she is absolutely in the top 5 most likely nominees.  She also lacks the baggage of a previous run (see Rubio, Marco or Cruz, Ted) and would probably win SC.  She's staying out of the drama to play the long game, and there is a very high chance she throws her hat into the ring.


Of course, none of this means that she is a good GE candidate or prevents her from being the next Scott Walker.  But all signs point to her running.