Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee (Jun 2020)

[Suburbia]

Right now, Josh Hawley or Nikki Haley.

Most Americans don't know who that is only political junkies who know these people.

[Grassroots]

Hawley nor Cotton are on there.

[S019]

Tom Cotton, who oddly isn't on this list.

[Real Texan Politics]

Would love for it to be Tucker Carlson but I don't trust the party to allow that to happen.

[terp40hitch]

Nikki Haley

1. Establishment liked, Worked for Trump
2. Nick Ayers is trying to be her campaign manager
3. Head of Heritage Action is working for her policy group
4. From a Early state
5. Already visiting other early states, national name recognition

[dw93]

Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, or Ron DeSantis will be the nominee.

[2016]

Tom Cotton, who oddly isn't on this list.

After what Cotton published in the New York Times a week or so ago about wanting the Military to intervene during the Height of the Riot he is FINISHED, absolutely FINISHED - Period!

[2016]

Nikki Haley

1. Establishment liked, Worked for Trump
2. Nick Ayers is trying to be her campaign manager
3. Head of Heritage Action is working for her policy group
4. From a Early state
5. Already visiting other early states, national name recognition

Yeah, I think it's her. I've seen her campaigning for IA Senator Joni Ernst numerous times after Ernst kicked off her Reelection in 2019. She also campaigned for Cory Gardner I believe.
Doesn't she even realize how much of a Star is she is already?
Not sure about Nick Ayers. I think she will bring in some close people from SC to her Campaign Team.

[S019]

Tom Cotton, who oddly isn't on this list.

After what Cotton published in the New York Times a week or so ago about wanting the Military to intervene during the Height of the Riot he is FINISHED, absolutely FINISHED - Period!

That would actually be helpful in a Republican primary, great way to win over the racist Southern hicks.

[Frodo]

I think Missouri Senator Josh Hawley stands the best chance of being nominated.  Since Trump worked out so well for them last time, at least with expanding the Republican Party's appeal to formerly Democratic white working class voters in the Rust Belt (though sacrificing the suburbs in the process, especially in the Sun Belt), Republicans are going to want to find a younger, more intelligent and adroit version (but just as charismatic), and that just maybe he could succeed where Trump fell short.  After all, in their view, it wasn't Trump's agenda that was the issue -it was the man himself.  

[2016]

I think Missouri Senator Josh Hawley stands the best chance of being nominated.  Since Trump worked out so well for them last time, at least with expanding the Republican Party's appeal to formerly Democratic white working class voters in the Rust Belt (though sacrificing the suburbs in the process, especially in the Sun Belt), Republicans are going to want to find a younger, more intelligent and adroit version (but just as charismatic), and that just maybe he could succeed where Trump fell short.  After all, in their view, it wasn't Trump's agenda that was the issue -it was the man himself.  

Hawley is too inexperienced see Rubio 2016. He's not going to make it. He would also need to give up his Senate Seat.

[Frodo]

I think Missouri Senator Josh Hawley stands the best chance of being nominated.  Since Trump worked out so well for them last time, at least with expanding the Republican Party's appeal to formerly Democratic white working class voters in the Rust Belt (though sacrificing the suburbs in the process, especially in the Sun Belt), Republicans are going to want to find a younger, more intelligent and adroit version (but just as charismatic), and that just maybe he could succeed where Trump fell short.  After all, in their view, it wasn't Trump's agenda that was the issue -it was the man himself.  

Hawley is too inexperienced see Rubio 2016. He's not going to make it. He would also need to give up his Senate Seat.

Does experience really matter when it comes to the GOP nomination?  Donald Trump had zero experience, but that didn't stop the party from nominating him in 2016.  Or to put it another way, it didn't stop him from conducting a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and subsequently remaking it in his image. 

[2016]

I think Haley is the clear frontrunner, for all the reasons stated above. Second to her is Ron DeSantis.
I agree that Hawley and Cotton are certainly contenders, I just don't see Hawley running, since he'll also be up for reelection. And I just don't see Cotton, with his John McCain level hawkishness, getting a foothold in the primaries. Bill Kristol will get on the wagon for Cotton, but that's a relatively small segment.

But a lot of people here are forgetting the wildcard. Donald Trump. Whoever he endorses will have an automatic advantage. Playing odds maker this far out is impossible without knowing if Nikki Haley will say something that causes a Trump tantrum, or if Jr. well run.

Would Haley or DeSantis be tempted to be each others Veep. A Haley/DeSantis Ticket or DeSantis/Haley Ticket would be pretty much the Republicans Dream come true, wouldn't it be?

[2016]

I think Missouri Senator Josh Hawley stands the best chance of being nominated.  Since Trump worked out so well for them last time, at least with expanding the Republican Party's appeal to formerly Democratic white working class voters in the Rust Belt (though sacrificing the suburbs in the process, especially in the Sun Belt), Republicans are going to want to find a younger, more intelligent and adroit version (but just as charismatic), and that just maybe he could succeed where Trump fell short.  After all, in their view, it wasn't Trump's agenda that was the issue -it was the man himself.  

Hawley is too inexperienced see Rubio 2016. He's not going to make it. He would also need to give up his Senate Seat.

Does experience really matter when it comes to the GOP nomination?  Donald Trump had zero experience, but that didn't stop the party from nominating him in 2016.  Or to put it another way, it didn't stop him from conducting a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and subsequently remaking it in his image. 

Well, it can go both ways! Chris Christie teared Rubio apart in that New Hampshire Debate because of the inexperience of the Florida Senator and Hawley is definitely too young to run for POTUS in 2024.

[Frodo]

I think Missouri Senator Josh Hawley stands the best chance of being nominated.  Since Trump worked out so well for them last time, at least with expanding the Republican Party's appeal to formerly Democratic white working class voters in the Rust Belt (though sacrificing the suburbs in the process, especially in the Sun Belt), Republicans are going to want to find a younger, more intelligent and adroit version (but just as charismatic), and that just maybe he could succeed where Trump fell short.  After all, in their view, it wasn't Trump's agenda that was the issue -it was the man himself.  

Hawley is too inexperienced see Rubio 2016. He's not going to make it. He would also need to give up his Senate Seat.

Does experience really matter when it comes to the GOP nomination?  Donald Trump had zero experience, but that didn't stop the party from nominating him in 2016.  Or to put it another way, it didn't stop him from conducting a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and subsequently remaking it in his image. 

Well, it can go both ways! Chris Christie teared Rubio apart in that New Hampshire Debate because of the inexperience of the Florida Senator and Hawley is definitely too young to run for POTUS in 2024.

You say Josh Hawley is 'too young' -if he were to win the GOP nomination, he would be about the same age Theodore Roosevelt was when he became President (43-44 years old). 

[Roll Roons]

I think Haley is the clear frontrunner, for all the reasons stated above. Second to her is Ron DeSantis.
I agree that Hawley and Cotton are certainly contenders, I just don't see Hawley running, since he'll also be up for reelection. And I just don't see Cotton, with his John McCain level hawkishness, getting a foothold in the primaries. Bill Kristol will get on the wagon for Cotton, but that's a relatively small segment.

But a lot of people here are forgetting the wildcard. Donald Trump. Whoever he endorses will have an automatic advantage. Playing odds maker this far out is impossible without knowing if Nikki Haley will say something that causes a Trump tantrum, or if Jr. well run.

Would Haley or DeSantis be tempted to be each others Veep. A Haley/DeSantis Ticket or DeSantis/Haley Ticket would be pretty much the Republicans Dream come true, wouldn't it be?

I think this would be a very formidable ticket. Both can legitimately claim bona fides with Trump's base, while also being able to bring back suburbanites due to not having Trump's scandals, incompetence or horrible personality. They also know the need to appeal to minorities and women, and DeSantis can also work with retirees to hone his message to the Midwest and Northeast. They would probably be the best bet to stanch the bleeding in Texas, Georgia and Arizona, while possibly also making inroads in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, the Philly suburbs, New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Maine. And if these places sound disparate, that shows how broad their coalition would be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whomever is nominated will be disadvantaged,  due to the Senate map of 2024 is a replicate of the 2012 Senate map: Caset, Baldwin, Kaine, Manchin, Brown, Stebenow, Sinema and Rosen are all running for reelection and will have coattails

[terp40hitch]

Whomever is nominated will be disadvantaged,  due to the Senate map of 2024 is a replicate of the 2012 Senate map: Caset, Baldwin, Kaine, Manchin, Brown, Stebenow, Sinema and Rosen are all running for reelection and will have coattails

Senate maps really don’t have a huge affect on presidential races. Also, Brown and Manchin both won’t win another term and Casey, Baldwin and Stabenow will all actually have a fight for their seats this time

[Horsemask]

I voted other as a vote for Cotton, but I waffled between him, Haley and DeSantis.

I think Hawley doesn't run in 2024. Depending on the winner in 2024, I could see Hawley running in 2028 or 2032, or getting consideration for a SCOTUS seat during a GOP administration if he wants it. Seems to me he is more interested in electoral politics.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Actually I'm going to ignore your question and tell you who won't be the nominee in 2024:


Anyone from 2016.  Regardless of their merits as a candidate, I can't see Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Rand Paul, Scott Walker (even if he returns to the governor's mansion)or Kasich gaining traction. Cruz and Rubio, if anyone would have the best chance.

It's not going to be an influencer like Ben Shapiro or Don Jr.  Tucker, as much as I like him wouldn't get far.

Tim Scott hasn't signaled any interest and I doubt Baker wants the job, and James would need to win the Senate race this year to have a shot.  Matt Gaetz is too fringe to catch on and Crenshaw's relationship with the trumpian base isn't as good as you'd think, and is "just" a house member.  I'm not sure how seriously I take Kobach as a potential candidate, and Liz Cheney has "Cheney" as her last name.

Romney and Paul Ryan are persona non grata in the modern GOP, and justifiably so.

Trump would be 78 and in less than ideal health-he already looks exhausted and I don't think he wants the job, rather a peaceful retirement.  Assuming Biden wins this year, that takes Mike Pence out of consideration, who would be the frontrunner if Trump won.



That leaves these candidates as finalists:

Nikki Haley: experienced, great resume, theoretically strong with suburban and nonwhite voters, questionable strength among base.

Ron DeSantis:stipulating his re-election success, the best-rounded candidate the GOP has in terms of demographic appeal, strong and popular leader of one of the largest states.

Josh Hawley:the logical path of the GOP's economic populism, but quite young and his appeal outside of the base is unknown.

Tom Cotton: foreign policy and crime hawk, knows the pulse of the Trumpian base, but like Hawley his appeal outside of it is untested.

Rick Scott: Ruthlessly ambitious and personally wealthy. Might have suburban-base appeal but his Florida record has skeletons.  Will be 72 in 2024.

Mike Pompeo: Has genuine foreign policy bonafides and a strong record as SOS.  Wants the job.


possibly Mike Pence or Ted Cruz. Both of whom definitely want the job.

[LabourJersey]

I voted Trump primarily because if he loses I genuinely don't think he will know how to have a quiet retirement. Combined with how he'll inevitably comment and criticize anything Biden says or does, I think there's a good chance he'd run and a strong chance he would win the nomination.

If he doesn't run though, I guess DeSantis is the most likely provided he wins re-election in 2022, or dramatically fails in terms of handling COVID-19. It's easy to imagine some right-wing nationalist backbencher in the House catching fire and winning the nomination, though.

I'm skeptical Nikki Haley could actually win a majority of Republican voters as the party exist today.

[Left Wing]

Paul Ryan is currently the most likely person to be the 47th president of the united states.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I remembered now that Rubio has tried to take more populist positions after Trump was elected-he joined Ivanka for a maternity leave proposal, and last year he called for a "common good" capitalism, quoting Pope Leo.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelposner/2019/12/12/marco-rubios-common-good-capitalism-is-just-what-we-need/#54fd18de5f22

National Review's Kevin D. Williamson isn't a fan unsurprisingly.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/marco-rubio-elizabeth-warren-capitalism-common-good-argument/

This is probably the best evidence of Rubio angling for a 2024 run.

Paul Ryan is currently the most likely person to be the 47th president of the united states.

Thats... quite the take.  Would you explain how?

[MABA 2020]

I voted Trump primarily because if he loses I genuinely don't think he will know how to have a quiet retirement. Combined with how he'll inevitably comment and criticize anything Biden says or does, I think there's a good chance he'd run and a strong chance he would win the nomination.

Yes and failing that it'll be Don Jr.

[Del Tachi]

DeSantis