Actually I'm going to ignore your question and tell you who won't be the nominee in 2024:
Anyone from 2016. Regardless of their merits as a candidate, I can't see Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Rand Paul, Scott Walker (even if he returns to the governor's mansion)or Kasich gaining traction. Cruz and Rubio, if anyone would have the best chance.
It's not going to be an influencer like Ben Shapiro or Don Jr. Tucker, as much as I like him wouldn't get far.
Tim Scott hasn't signaled any interest and I doubt Baker wants the job, and James would need to win the Senate race this year to have a shot. Matt Gaetz is too fringe to catch on and Crenshaw's relationship with the trumpian base isn't as good as you'd think, and is "just" a house member. I'm not sure how seriously I take Kobach as a potential candidate, and Liz Cheney has "Cheney" as her last name.
Romney and Paul Ryan are persona non grata in the modern GOP, and justifiably so.
Trump would be 78 and in less than ideal health-he already looks exhausted and I don't think he wants the job, rather a peaceful retirement. Assuming Biden wins this year, that takes Mike Pence out of consideration, who would be the frontrunner if Trump won.
That leaves these candidates as finalists:
Nikki Haley: experienced, great resume, theoretically strong with suburban and nonwhite voters, questionable strength among base.
Ron DeSantis:stipulating his re-election success, the best-rounded candidate the GOP has in terms of demographic appeal, strong and popular leader of one of the largest states.
Josh Hawley:the logical path of the GOP's economic populism, but quite young and his appeal outside of the base is unknown.
Tom Cotton: foreign policy and crime hawk, knows the pulse of the Trumpian base, but like Hawley his appeal outside of it is untested.
Rick Scott: Ruthlessly ambitious and personally wealthy. Might have suburban-base appeal but his Florida record has skeletons. Will be 72 in 2024.
Mike Pompeo: Has genuine foreign policy bonafides and a strong record as SOS. Wants the job.
possibly Mike Pence or Ted Cruz. Both of whom definitely want the job.
Ecxcellent analysis. Much better than going "Haley is Indian, GOP is too racist". I will say on Hawley and Cotton, it's unknown how much appeal they have even to Trump's base. I don't think there's ever been a clear answer as to what draws people to Trump's base probably because there's multiple different answers. Some are there because he doesn't want to cut Medicare and SS, some because he's tough on immigration, some because he seems tough in general, some because he promises to leave foreign conflicts, some just because they know who he is from a game show, and I'm sure most are some combination of these. Hawley and Cotton are making each bets on what they feel was the strongest draw for the base. Cotton is betting immigration and the tough guy rhetoric (but not taking the military withdrawal angle). Hawley is betting the economic aspect as well as culture war angle. It is yet to be seen who made the best bet. Personally I think Cotton will find that a neocon that's anti immigration is not what the trump base wants once he actually starts campaigning. Hawley I think made the more salient bet and to his benefit as well, nobody has taken that lane while there won't be any shortage of people calling to be tough on the border
On Don Jr, he won't run this year but he certainly will later. He's the one who's become most interested in elected politics as we saw in the midterms and how he has grown to have great relations with party people. He will in the next six years run for either governor or Senator in a red state that he'll carpetbag to (he was very interested in running for new York gov during the midterm but I think he realizes he can't win that after talking to party folks). He really fell in love with Montana so I wouldn't rule it out at all especially if Gianforte loses.
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