MS- PPP: Hyde-Smith +8
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  MS- PPP: Hyde-Smith +8
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Author Topic: MS- PPP: Hyde-Smith +8  (Read 1736 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: June 10, 2020, 03:26:30 PM »

Hyde-Smith    49
Espy               41

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200610_MS.pdf
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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2020, 03:37:52 PM »

Close enough to not get embarrassed, and maybe have an outside shot if she goes on a gaffe spree again.

Too bad MS Dems couldn't find a better candidate than someone who resigned the cabinet in disgrace 25+ years ago and hasn't done anything since, other than trying to party switch in 2007 and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
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OneJ
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2020, 04:46:38 PM »

Not terrible and this poll has a 60/35 White/Black split and a 55/39 Trump/Clinton split.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2020, 08:14:42 PM »

and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
This state is racist as hell and the Democrats are the black party. No Dem was going to win.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2020, 08:16:39 PM »

and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
This state is racist as hell and the Democrats are the black party. No Dem was going to win.
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YE
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2020, 08:24:45 PM »

and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
This state is racist as hell and the Democrats are the black party. No Dem was going to win.

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2020, 09:25:18 PM »

All things considered, I think Espy did pretty well here last time, although two consecutive electoral defeats sans an  appointment afterwards tends to end even the best of political careers.
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S019
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2020, 12:25:44 AM »

Espy probably gets around 42-43% on Election Day, this remains Safe R
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2020, 11:37:14 AM »

Good poll for Espy, I say this is Ds 61st after Alabama
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Harry
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2020, 12:37:41 PM »

and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
This state is racist as hell and the Democrats are the black party. No Dem was going to win.

Jim Hood would almost certainly beaten Cindy Hyde-Smith in 2018 in a head-to-head race (assuming his entry into the race didn't cause other stronger Republican candidates to jump in and get to the top 2 in her spot).

And Mississippi isn't any more racist than Louisiana (Democratic governor) or Alabama (Democratic senator), nor is any more Republican than either of those states. It's all about matching a strong Democratic candidate against a weak Republican candidate. The MSGOP did its part in 2018 (just like the ALGOP in 2017 and LAGOP in 2015), but the Democrats weren't able to do the same.
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2020, 12:51:58 PM »

If Espy had won, would he lose reelection by more than Jones this year?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2020, 01:10:37 PM »

If Espy had won, would he lose reelection by more than Jones this year?

No. Hyde-Smith's scandals were not of the same magnitude by any reasonable stretch and turnout in MS-SEN was much closer to GE level than in AL-SEN.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2020, 02:32:01 PM »

Lean R.

Hyde-Smith can be defeated, MS Democrats have a large black voter pool.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2020, 03:05:47 PM »

New Poll: Mississippi Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-28

Summary: D: 41%, R: 49%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2020, 12:46:49 AM »

and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
This state is racist as hell and the Democrats are the black party. No Dem was going to win.

Jim Hood would almost certainly beaten Cindy Hyde-Smith in 2018 in a head-to-head race (assuming his entry into the race didn't cause other stronger Republican candidates to jump in and get to the top 2 in her spot).

And Mississippi isn't any more racist than Louisiana (Democratic governor) or Alabama (Democratic senator), nor is any more Republican than either of those states. It's all about matching a strong Democratic candidate against a weak Republican candidate. The MSGOP did its part in 2018 (just like the ALGOP in 2017 and LAGOP in 2015), but the Democrats weren't able to do the same.
No he wouldn't have.

Doug Jones won because Roy Moore was a pedophile and it was low turnout special election with nothing else on the ballot three weeks before Christmas.

Louisiana has a strain of white voters that would vote for Dems like John Bel Edwards. A Black Dem could never win statewide.

Mississippi whites routinely vote 90 percent GOP no matter what. That is A LOT of racial animus behind those margins. And the fact that a person can only be elected Governor if they win a majority of districts when they know Black folks are clustered in the Delta and Jackson is one of the most egregious and racist statutes enshrined as law.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2020, 12:53:11 AM »

This is very sad that even in MS is getting close, 8 points isnt comfortable in a landslide loss for Rs in 2020
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Harry
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2020, 01:09:20 PM »

and losing a possibly winnable race in 2018.
This state is racist as hell and the Democrats are the black party. No Dem was going to win.

Jim Hood would almost certainly beaten Cindy Hyde-Smith in 2018 in a head-to-head race (assuming his entry into the race didn't cause other stronger Republican candidates to jump in and get to the top 2 in her spot).

And Mississippi isn't any more racist than Louisiana (Democratic governor) or Alabama (Democratic senator), nor is any more Republican than either of those states. It's all about matching a strong Democratic candidate against a weak Republican candidate. The MSGOP did its part in 2018 (just like the ALGOP in 2017 and LAGOP in 2015), but the Democrats weren't able to do the same.
No he wouldn't have.

Doug Jones won because Roy Moore was a pedophile and it was low turnout special election with nothing else on the ballot three weeks before Christmas.

Louisiana has a strain of white voters that would vote for Dems like John Bel Edwards. A Black Dem could never win statewide.

Mississippi whites routinely vote 90 percent GOP no matter what. That is A LOT of racial animus behind those margins. And the fact that a person can only be elected Governor if they win a majority of districts when they know Black folks are clustered in the Delta and Jackson is one of the most egregious and racist statutes enshrined as law.

None of that has anything to do with whether Jim Hood (who is white) would have won a SENATE election against Cindy Hyde-Smith in 2018.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2020, 02:04:00 PM »

Yeah, Hyde-Smith is easily one of the luckiest Class II Senators. She would have been in a world of trouble if Pressley or Hood had run against her in 2018 or even this year.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2020, 02:12:43 PM »

Yeah, Hyde-Smith is easily one of the luckiest Class II Senators. She would have been in a world of trouble if Pressley or Hood had run against her in 2018 or even this year.

MS is the last place that Ds will look to get a Supermajority but AL, AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, KY, ME, MT, NC  SC and TX will give Ds 60/40 Senate and Dems are halfway there: AZ, CO, IA, KS, ME, MT and NC tilt D, with runoffs in GA, that's Dens +8

Collins is 9 pts down to Betsy Sweet and Ernst is 3 pts down in a PPP
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2020, 03:09:07 PM »

Yeah, Hyde-Smith is easily one of the luckiest Class II Senators. She would have been in a world of trouble if Pressley or Hood had run against her in 2018 or even this year.

Certainly Hood, but idk if Pressley would've won.  I doubt she'd have made as many gaffes against a white opponent tbh.  A lot of the time it struck me as being more a sloppy attempt at race-baiting by someone who though smart enough to understand what a dog whistle, lacked the political skills to pull it off without coming across as blatantly racist.  I don't blame Hood for assuming Governor would be an easier lift though since no one realized how incompetent Hyde-Smith would be and IIRC was considered slightly stronger than Generic R when she was picked for the vacancy. 
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2020, 03:13:23 PM »

Strong Likely Republican. I think the result will be close to 2018. Possibly Espy can improve by one or two points with recent events helping black turnout, but I don't see this flipping or getting within less than five or six point at very best.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2020, 06:30:45 PM »

Yeah, Hyde-Smith is easily one of the luckiest Class II Senators. She would have been in a world of trouble if Pressley or Hood had run against her in 2018 or even this year.

Hood really wasted his clout on last year's gubernatorial race.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2020, 06:38:51 PM »

Yeah, Hyde-Smith is easily one of the luckiest Class II Senators. She would have been in a world of trouble if Pressley or Hood had run against her in 2018 or even this year.

Hood really wasted his clout on last year's gubernatorial race.

I expect he'll be able to get at least one retread nomination if he wants it.
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