I mean, the only reason this is even in doubt is because Trump somehow pulled out a win in the first place
(being who he is and doing what he does). In retrospect, given that Clinton was also hugely unpopular, it shouldn't have been that surprising. Now no one wants to jump to any conclusions, no matter how abysmal the election environment looks for Trump/Republicans. And even after we've already established in 2018 that the public is willing and capable of punishing the GOP badly for Trump's presidency.
The reality is, no party has ever held onto the White House in an economy this damaged
when the economy went bad under their watch, not to mention the pandemic and protests being so terribly handled by the incumbent. The idea of Trump winning reelection when the economy basically went into a Depression under his watch should alone tell people he's screwed.
It's kind of a joke at this point to say "lol nothing matters anymore" but the truth is, that has never actually been proven. If Trump held on through this, then you can
truly say that.