How the Democrats will win the House

[zorkpolitics]

(Sorry removed the IL-8 seat)
Looking over the poor Republican challengers in Democratic districts, the good Democratic challengers in some Republican districts, and Bush's miserable poll ratings, I'm now ready to predict the Democrats will win at least the 16 Republican/Independent seats they need to control the House.

Here is how the Democrats will do it:
Lose no Democratic open seats and win the following Republican/Independent open seats that Kerry won or Bush won by a small margin:
AZ-8, CO-7, IA-1, IL-6, NY-24, VT-AL

Defeat scandal ridden Republican incumbents:
TX-22 and OH-18

Defeat weak incumbents in Kerry won districts:
NM-1, CT-2, CT-4, PA-6, FL-22

Defeat the weak incumbents with strong challengers:
IN-8, IN-9, KY-4

[Sam Spade]

It's not an unreasonable conclusion, but nothing is usually written in stone.

The VT-AL seat won't mark any change in representation, since Sanders was basically a Democrat (for caucus purposes anyway).  The Republicans actually have a good candidate for that race, but since it appears like the Progressive Party candidate dropped out and endorsed the Democrat, I would move it much lower on the list of any Republican chance.

IL-08 is a Democratic seat, when Melissa Bean won it last time.  Don't know how that counts to a switch.  Bean is one of the few Democratic congressman in 2006 whose seat could switch to the GOP.  She's drawn good GOP opponents against her and has someone on her left running an Indy candidacy against her.

There are a lot of CDs I would place higher than IL-6 and FL-22 on takeover chances.  I also defer to muon2 a lot on IL-6, so his opinion is probably more sound than mine, especially from the GOP angle.

And as we know, Shays and Simmons in CT might lose, they might not.  We say this every time.    I have to think the base closure thing has helped Simmons, though I can't say that much.

Add in WA-8 to your list and it's not too bad at this point.

[TeePee4Prez]

Your're also overlooking the possibility of PA 8.  It may not be one of the top 16, but definitely one of the next best after this.  Unfortunately for us Democrats, the Bucks County Dems are impotent and Mike Fitzpatrick has name rec.

[Dave from Michigan]

interesting  

still no Michigan seats, the democrats would have a chance at the 9th (Knollenberg) if they had a good candidate they have some environmential lawyer right now. Which  won't cut it Knollenberg has been around for a while (1993) you would need a better candidate.  Bush won this district 50.5-49.5.  Knollenberg won the seat with 58.45% though

McCotter's district looks like a pontential pickup part of the district is in Wayne county (Bush won 52% in this district) but there's no strong candidate.

[Ben.]

What the ideological balance of the Dems in the competitive races like?

I seem to remember that there where a significant number of blue dogs running and Iraq veterans, but what is the overall balance?   

[Sam Spade]

What the ideological balance of the Dems in the competitive races like?

I seem to remember that there where a significant number of blue dogs running and Iraq veterans, but what is the overall balance?   

In Texas, all of the Iraq War vets are running in seats where they really have no shot.  I can't speak to other states.

There will essentially be two competitive CD races in the state in 2006:  TX-22 and TX-17. 

Anyone who says otherwise is simply a shill for some party. 

[Galactic Overlord]

Looking over the poor Republican challengers in Democratic districts, the good Democratic challengers in some Republican districts, and Bush's miserable poll ratings, I'm now ready to predict the Democrats will win at least the 16 Republican/Independent seats they need to control the House.

That would amount to a sweep, and frankly I think that's a little out of the Democrats' league at this point. 

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I don't think they can get all five.  Jodi Rell's strong showing will help Shays and Simmons, and the absence of a presidential campaign will help localize the races.  Shaw won with around 60% last time even while Kerry won his district, despite his health problems, I'm not seeing a defeat in his future absent more information.  PA-06 is winnable, but keep in mind Rendell did not have coattails last time when Gerlach was elected, so it remains to be seen if Rendell's showing changes anything.  Heather Wilson, yeah she's defintely up there, and she could lose, but she's still a tough candidate.  If I had to, I'd probably pick PA-06 and NM-1 as the ones to go Dem.

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Possible, but iffy.  Democrats Ken Lucas (KY-4) and Baron Hill (IN-9) only got to a high of 54% each in 2000, other times they only managed 51%.  Both are now no longer incumbents, and are bound to lose votes because of that.  The increase in suburban areas in both counties is also pushing them more to the Republican side.  Rep. John Hostettler (IN-8) is rather quirky, and some would think he would have gotten defeated by now, yet he holds on.  He may do so again this year.

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I have no idea how strong Bob Ney's opponent is, but he doesn't seem to have gotten unpopular in his district yet.  Delay's district has a strong Republican lean, and it doesn't help Nick Lampson is getting tons of money from Hollywood.  The Hammer can easily "hammer" him as being too liberal.

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The Republicans are still strong locally in IL-6 and have a good shot of keeping the seat.  AZ-8 leans Republican, but the border issue has made it so volitate that this seat could fall.  CO-7 and IA-2 are certainly good pickup opportunties, but not set in stone.  With NY-24, it's a possibility, but for upstate New York it's pretty Republican.  Again, I don't see the Democrats sweeping all of these races. 

There's also no assurances that the Democrats will not lose one or two seats in some way, perhaps among IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, or LA-03.  Even in 1994, the Democrats did pick up one GOP-held seat (Santorum's old House district).  I think the Dems can do about a five seat gain, but not much more.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think the coattails factor will be important.  If we look at competetive races and consider who's running at the top of the ticket then we can assume they will have some way factor. 

Although Rendell may not have coattails in Pennsylvania, if Casey wins by the margin he is currently at then Gerlach could be defeated. 

In Indiana, Democrats are disadvantaged because Lugar's running for re-election unopposed.  That means that individual Democrats will have to come out and vote to defeat John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel in Districts 8 and 9, potentially ensuring that they win narrowly; a possible defeat for Chris Chocola is also averted. 

In Texas, the situation will be interesting because of the four-way Gubernatorial race, although Perry will win he will not have ample coattails.  Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, however, will.  This could ultimately save Delay in TX 22.

In Connecticut, Rell's +80% approval rating could save both Chris Shays and Simmons.

Minnesota could be interesting, Kennedy's open seat could elect Patty Wetterling if Klobuchar and Hatch both win their races.

Finally, NM 1 could go for Madrid because of Richardson's excellent re-election numbers.

[Jacobtm]

Looking over the poor Republican challengers in Democratic districts, the good Democratic challengers in some Republican districts, and Bush's miserable poll ratings, I'm now ready to predict the Democrats will win at least the 16 Republican/Independent seats they need to control the House.

You grossly misunderestimate the ability of the Democrats to dick around and completely mess everything up.

[ilikeverin]

Yeah, watch out for an upset from Wetterling in MN-whatever-she's-running-in.

[nclib]

Even in 1994, the Democrats did pick up one GOP-held seat (Santorum's old House district).

I think the Dems also picked up ME-2, MN-6, and RI-1. But I agree that a complete sweep is unlikely.

[bullmoose88]

Your're also overlooking the possibility of PA 8.  It may not be one of the top 16, but definitely one of the next best after this.  Unfortunately for us Democrats, the Bucks County Dems are impotent and Mike Fitzpatrick has name rec.

Not only could the Bucks Democrats be deemed "brain dead" the Bucks GOP is a pretty well run outfit.

PA-8 is Republican for the forseeable future...baring a change in the way each county party operates or some sudden demographic shift.

[Jake]

Democrats aren't exactly favored in more than a quarter of those seats IMO. Probably, PA-06, VT-AL, KY-04, and IA-01, plus IL-8 which they hold already. Now, a good year may leave them with more, but you can't win them all, and right now, they're just aren't enough competitive to give them the House unless they do run the table.

For the record, I'm predicting Democratic pick-ups in PA-06, VT-AL, KY-04, IA-01, CT-2, CO-7, OH-18 and IN-8 and GOP pick-ups in OH-06 and GA-08.

[Keystone Phil]

For the record, I'm predicting Democratic pick-ups in PA-06

Don't be too sure just yet. Turnout will be strong for Rendell in the area but not as strong as it gets in a Presidential election year (Kerry win in the district in 2004 is the reason why Murphy came so close). And while Murphy has been hitting Gerlach with the corruption stuff, she is having some problems herself (possibly plagarized her ethics reform plan). It will be the closest race in PA but I think Gerlach will pull it out and with a larger margin of victory than before, too.

[Sam Spade]

Welcome back, Keystone Phil. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Your're also overlooking the possibility of PA 8.  It may not be one of the top 16, but definitely one of the next best after this.  Unfortunately for us Democrats, the Bucks County Dems are impotent and Mike Fitzpatrick has name rec.

Not only could the Bucks Democrats be deemed "brain dead" the Bucks GOP is a pretty well run outfit.

PA-8 is Republican for the forseeable future...baring a change in the way each county party operates or some sudden demographic shift.

It seems as if they are getting behind Pat Murphy, so the Bucks Dems aren't as "brain dead" as I once thought.  Remember Bucks County elected Dem Peter Kostmayer even when Ronald Reagan was king in the Philly suburbs.  Even you have to admit the area has drastically moved liberal since the 1980s and if the Dems pulled their heads out of their asses like they did in Montgomery County, the GOP would have some fights on their hands in Bucks.  Remember, 9/11 helped the GOP in Bucks in 2004.  Will that hold true for 2006?

[WMS]

Defeat weak incumbents in Kerry won districts:
NM-1, CT-2, CT-4, PA-6, FL-22

Nah, I don't think so. Wilson has consistently run ahead of Bush in NM-1, and she's a good constituency representative. It could be close, yes, but...

Heather Wilson, yeah she's defintely up there, and she could lose, but she's still a tough candidate.  If I had to, I'd probably pick PA-06 and NM-1 as the ones to go Dem.

Don't forget about this. Just because the Dems pulled enough voters-who-do-in-fact-genuinely-exist-we-swear to win NM-1 for Kerry doesn't mean the voters who voted for Wilson in 2004 (and 2002) (and 2000) (etc.) are all of a sudden going to switch their votes. Why would they? Wilson does well among moderates in NM-1.

Finally, NM 1 could go for Madrid because of Richardson's excellent re-election numbers.

A significant number of voters can and do split their votes here, including yours truly. As an example, I expect both Richardson and Wilson to win the swing West Side of Albuquerque - and that'll probably secure Wilson's re-election right there. Madrid hasn't stated enough positions yet for me to get a better of idea of how well she fits the district.

Oh, it's a competitive district, and the Dems have to try and take it every election because of the swing nature of the district, but I still give the edge to Wilson to win yet again and keep NM-1's tradition of never electing Democrats intact.