By 2028, will the 13 original states going to be Safe Ds?

[MATTROSE94]

Massachusetts*, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia will all be safe D.  Connecticut and Delaware will be hard likely, and RI will be soft likely.

*Massachusetts originally included Maine until around the 1840s, Maine will be lean R by then, NH will be a toss up/tilt R.  

going south, GA will be lean D (but the Democrats will have a high, solid floor), NC is hard to predict but I think it will remain a pure swing state, and South Carolina will trend left somewhat into likely R.

And hot take but Vermont will trend hard right by double digits by 2032 if not 2028..  And yes, I know it's not part of the original 13 but I didn't want to exclude it without every other state on the east coast.

MD:D+30
NY:D+25
VA:D+19
MA:D+17
NJ:D+13

VT:D+10
DE:D+9
CT:D+9
RI:D+7
GA:D+4

NC: Even
NH:R+2
ME-AL:R+4
SC:R+8

I agree for the most part, though Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey could narrowly vote Republican in a Ron DeSantis vs AOC race.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

No, and there's a simple explanation -

  Colonial VA included what's now WV and KY, both of which are solidly Republican states. I don't see them going blue any time soon. It would be progress for Kentucky Democrats if, somehow, the GOP could somehow get even under 60% of the vote. Winning outright is impossible at the presidential level (though the governor's still a Democrat). And WV is just a hugely Republican state at this point; it would be cause for concern for the GOP if they got less than 65% or so there.

 In reality, the 13 'colonies' today includes the 13 same-named states, as well as Vermont - then disputed between NH and NY; Maine - then part of MA; Kentucky and West Virginia - then part of VA; Tennessee - then part of NC; Mississippi and Alabama - then part of Georgia. SC's really the only safely Republican colony of the 13 states (and that's not going to change by 2028 - maybe the margin for the GOP decreases slightly, but the state voting blue is, for the time being, out of the question) that share their names with colonies, but if we're including all states that were part of Colonial America (as part of another colony), then I should add that MS, AL and TN (as well as the aforementioned states of KY and WV) are also solidly red.

Pretty sure he was just talking about the first 13 states as they exist today not how they existed back in the colonial days.

Well, either way it's a moot point, since the answer is no. SC will not vote Democratic in 2028 and will certainly not be Safe Democratic.

Why did you necro a thread from 13 months ago?

[GregTheGreat657]

PA, NC, SC, and possibly GA would like a word with you

[Chips]

Probably not.

[perpetual_cynic]

I highly doubt that NH is lean R, unless the candidate is a Chris Sununu-type, probably a lean D. Georgia will likely be bluer than it is now, a lean D state. South Carolina is still a likely R state, with the margins not moving much at all. North Carolina is lean R, with it voting blue for moderate Dems. Virginia is likely D. Pennsylvania is a tossup, more than likely going blue. Maine is a lean D state, only going red for a Chris Sununu-type Republican. Everything else is likely D of the original 13 colonies.