By 2028, will the 13 original states going to be Safe Ds?

[iceman]

Discuss...

[Agonized-Statism]

South Carolina has entered the chat.

[Figueira]

Definitely not South Carolina, and I don't think Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire will be Safe D at that point.

I could see all these states voting Democratic in a very good year for Democrats, though.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Massachusetts*, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia will all be safe D.  Connecticut and Delaware will be hard likely, and RI will be soft likely.

*Massachusetts originally included Maine until around the 1840s, Maine will be lean R by then, NH will be a toss up/tilt R.  

going south, GA will be lean D (but the Democrats will have a high, solid floor), NC is hard to predict but I think it will remain a pure swing state, and South Carolina will trend left somewhat into likely R.

And hot take but Vermont will trend hard right by double digits by 2032 if not 2028..  And yes, I know it's not part of the original 13 but I didn't want to exclude it without every other state on the east coast.

MD:D+30
NY:D+25
VA:D+19
MA:D+17
NJ:D+13

VT:D+10
DE:D+9
CT:D+9
RI:D+7
GA:D+4

NC: Even
NH:R+2
ME-AL:R+4
SC:R+8

[iceman]

Massachusetts*, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia will all be safe D.  Connecticut and Delaware will be hard likely, and RI will be soft likely.

*Massachusetts originally included Maine until around the 1840s, Maine will be lean R by then, NH will be a toss up/tilt R.  

going south, GA will be lean D (but the Democrats will have a high, solid floor), NC is hard to predict but I think it will remain a pure swing state, and South Carolina will trend left somewhat into likely R.

And hot take but Vermont will trend hard right by double digits by 2032 if not 2028..  And yes, I know it's not part of the original 13 but I didn't want to exclude it without every other state on the east coast.

MD:D+30
NY:D+25
VA:D+19
MA:D+17
NJ:D+13

VT:D+10
DE:D+9
CT:D+9
RI:D+7
GA:D+4

NC: Even
NH:R+2
ME-AL:R+4
SC:R+8

are those ratings CPVI? Because Virginia D+19 is very unlikely. I don't see it voting around 70% D - 30% R.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

are those ratings CPVI? Because Virginia D+19 is very unlikely. I don't see it voting around 70% D - 30% R.

I was thinking margins.  I could see VA being 59-40 by 2028.

[iceman]

are those ratings CPVI? Because Virginia D+19 is very unlikely. I don't see it voting around 70% D - 30% R.

I was thinking margins.  I could see VA being 59-40 by 2028.

Nah, I don't see it at those margins, the overly conservative 6th and 9th districts would keep the margins around 54%-56%. I don't it also being left of Massachusetts.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

NC is still purple for years to come, FL too. GA can reach VA levels. Either way, no way.

PA, NH, NC, and SC, all have 0 way of being Safe D. Considering that PA and NH are right trending furthermore, and SC is already very very conservative, this is just a bad question.

[Grassroots]

NH will eventually be lean R

[RINO Tom]

1) I feel, as always, obligated to say that some of you younger posters who are convinced that the politics you came of age during are "here to stay" are just plain naive.  I don't think frickin' Donald Rumsfeld will come riding in to restore a neo-conservative GOP alongside Zel Miller's eventual corpse winning the Democratic nomination, but we simply WILL NOT see our current trends last in a vacuum for decades and decades.  It just won't happen.

2) If we did see our current trends continue unchanged even through, 2028, you still would not see North Carolina, South Carolina OR Georgia be "Safe D."  You likely wouldn't see New Hampshire or Pennsylvania be "Safe D," either, and since these trends necessitate Republican inroads alongside Democratic inroads, you would likely see a state like Rhode Island shift out of "Safe D" territory.

[iceman]

There are trends thought that are "here to stay" for the foreseeable future like Maryland, New York and Illinois.

[RINO Tom]

There are trends thought that are "here to stay" for the foreseeable future like Maryland, New York and Illinois.

That is your guess or your opinion, dude.  Nobody here knows what will happen even ten years from now.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Totally forgot about PA.  Although I think it will continue to trend right, those areas are also declining in population, keeping it more competitive than WI.  R+4.  Could be the Florida of the north.

1) I feel, as always, obligated to say that some of you younger posters who are convinced that the politics you came of age during are "here to stay" are just plain naive.  I don't think frickin' Donald Rumsfeld will come riding in to restore a neo-conservative GOP alongside Zel Miller's eventual corpse winning the Democratic nomination, but we simply WILL NOT see our current trends last in a vacuum for decades and decades.  It just won't happen.

True, realignments don't last forever but they last much longer than just 10 years, generally.  The momentum that flipped the coastal areas blue in 1992 was building since pretty much the Johnson and Nixon administrations, and the same is true of Appalachia and south flipping red.  

The trends of the rust belt and new england trending red have only started about a decade ago (the sunbelt trend started a bit earlier) , so It's reasonable to expect it to continue for another 8-12 years, so long as the Democratic party remains somewhat committed to neoliberalism and their voting bloc in-groups, and the GOP their populism and their respective bloc in-groups.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Nope.

[S019]

No, all but SC may vote D, but they won't be Safe, NC and PA will probably be pure tossups, and NH and GA may be competitive, as well, maybe not tossups, but no worse than Lean.

[Epaminondas]

Absolutely, with West Virginia leading the way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC is trending Dem, that's why Harrison is competetive with Graham

[terp40hitch]

SC is trending Dem, that's why Harrison is competetive with Graham

Umm, Harrison is not in any world competitive against Graham. At max, he probably will lose by ten and that is about the same amount Nikki Haley’s opponent lost to her in 2010

[Hope For A New Era]

And hot take but Vermont will trend hard right by double digits by 2032 if not 2028..  And yes, I know it's not part of the original 13 but I didn't want to exclude it without every other state on the east coast.

No idea where this idea of Vermont being a "borrowed-time state" comes from. It's as safe D as a state can be. Unlike Trump's WWC coalition, Vermont is not "ancestrally Democratic." Not only did it just flip D at the federal level recently (1992), it's truly progressive. For example, it has the highest support for abortion of any state (70% according to Pew). Don't expect a flip anytime soon.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

And hot take but Vermont will trend hard right by double digits by 2032 if not 2028..  And yes, I know it's not part of the original 13 but I didn't want to exclude it without every other state on the east coast.

No idea where this idea of Vermont being a "borrowed-time state" comes from. It's as safe D as a state can be. Unlike Trump's WWC coalition, Vermont is not "ancestrally Democratic." Not only did it just flip D at the federal level recently (1992), it's truly progressive. For example, it has the highest support for abortion of any state (70% according to Pew). Don't expect a flip anytime soon.

Maine was safely democratic in 2008 and arguably 2012, and it has near-identical demographics.  Vermont is also a very rural, fairly poor state with a small population-it lacks the wealthier suburban areas in the south of New Hampshire.  There is much less resistance to trends in a state like Vermont than a bigger, more dense and more diverse state like Massachusetts or Connecticut.  It also has a GOP governor.

I'm not saying it will flip in 2028, but I can see it going from D+35 to D+10-15 in around a decade.

[DaWN]

And hot take but Vermont will trend hard right by double digits by 2032 if not 2028..  And yes, I know it's not part of the original 13 but I didn't want to exclude it without every other state on the east coast.

No idea where this idea of Vermont being a "borrowed-time state" comes from. It's as safe D as a state can be. Unlike Trump's WWC coalition, Vermont is not "ancestrally Democratic." Not only did it just flip D at the federal level recently (1992), it's truly progressive. For example, it has the highest support for abortion of any state (70% according to Pew). Don't expect a flip anytime soon.

Maine was safely democratic in 2008 and arguably 2012, and it has near-identical demographics.  Vermont is also a very rural, fairly poor state with a small population-it lacks the wealthier suburban areas in the south of New Hampshire.  There is much less resistance to trends in a state like Vermont than a bigger, more dense and more diverse state like Massachusetts or Connecticut.  It also has a GOP governor.

I'm not saying it will flip in 2028, but I can see it going from D+35 to D+10-15 in around a decade.

I may be wrong and someone can correct me if I am, but I'm pretty sure young people in Vermont are even more Democratic than older people. It just has a unique political culture that demographics can't really explain.

[Schiff for Senate]

No, and there's a simple explanation -

  Colonial VA included what's now WV and KY, both of which are solidly Republican states. I don't see them going blue any time soon. It would be progress for Kentucky Democrats if, somehow, the GOP could somehow get even under 60% of the vote. Winning outright is impossible at the presidential level (though the governor's still a Democrat). And WV is just a hugely Republican state at this point; it would be cause for concern for the GOP if they got less than 65% or so there.

 In reality, the 13 'colonies' today includes the 13 same-named states, as well as Vermont - then disputed between NH and NY; Maine - then part of MA; Kentucky and West Virginia - then part of VA; Tennessee - then part of NC; Mississippi and Alabama - then part of Georgia. SC's really the only safely Republican colony of the 13 states (and that's not going to change by 2028 - maybe the margin for the GOP decreases slightly, but the state voting blue is, for the time being, out of the question) that share their names with colonies, but if we're including all states that were part of Colonial America (as part of another colony), then I should add that MS, AL and TN (as well as the aforementioned states of KY and WV) are also solidly red.

[Alben Barkley]

No, and there's a simple explanation -

  Colonial VA included what's now WV and KY, both of which are solidly Republican states. I don't see them going blue any time soon. It would be progress for Kentucky Democrats if, somehow, the GOP could somehow get even under 60% of the vote. Winning outright is impossible at the presidential level (though the governor's still a Democrat). And WV is just a hugely Republican state at this point; it would be cause for concern for the GOP if they got less than 65% or so there.

 In reality, the 13 'colonies' today includes the 13 same-named states, as well as Vermont - then disputed between NH and NY; Maine - then part of MA; Kentucky and West Virginia - then part of VA; Tennessee - then part of NC; Mississippi and Alabama - then part of Georgia. SC's really the only safely Republican colony of the 13 states (and that's not going to change by 2028 - maybe the margin for the GOP decreases slightly, but the state voting blue is, for the time being, out of the question) that share their names with colonies, but if we're including all states that were part of Colonial America (as part of another colony), then I should add that MS, AL and TN (as well as the aforementioned states of KY and WV) are also solidly red.

Pretty sure he was just talking about the first 13 states as they exist today not how they existed back in the colonial days.

[Schiff for Senate]

No, and there's a simple explanation -

  Colonial VA included what's now WV and KY, both of which are solidly Republican states. I don't see them going blue any time soon. It would be progress for Kentucky Democrats if, somehow, the GOP could somehow get even under 60% of the vote. Winning outright is impossible at the presidential level (though the governor's still a Democrat). And WV is just a hugely Republican state at this point; it would be cause for concern for the GOP if they got less than 65% or so there.

 In reality, the 13 'colonies' today includes the 13 same-named states, as well as Vermont - then disputed between NH and NY; Maine - then part of MA; Kentucky and West Virginia - then part of VA; Tennessee - then part of NC; Mississippi and Alabama - then part of Georgia. SC's really the only safely Republican colony of the 13 states (and that's not going to change by 2028 - maybe the margin for the GOP decreases slightly, but the state voting blue is, for the time being, out of the question) that share their names with colonies, but if we're including all states that were part of Colonial America (as part of another colony), then I should add that MS, AL and TN (as well as the aforementioned states of KY and WV) are also solidly red.

Pretty sure he was just talking about the first 13 states as they exist today not how they existed back in the colonial days.

Well, either way it's a moot point, since the answer is no. SC will not vote Democratic in 2028 and will certainly not be Safe Democratic.

[progressive85]

No but getting there perhaps.  SC will be the very last one.