TN - SSRS/Vanderbilt University: Trump + 9

[Pollster]

This has Trump's approval at 51/47, so if anything their numbers show Biden underperforming.

That being said, I don't buy their numbers. I suspect their education weights are messed up, but I can't seem to find the numbers in the doc.

To be fair, though, they had Trump's approval at 55/42 in October 2018 and Blackburn wound up winning 55/44 (the same poll's ballot test was Bredesen 44/43, meaning they nailed Bredesen's ceiling and she won over the final undecideds). So perhaps their methodology isn't entirely wrong.

[Pollster]

Does TN have a Dem polling problem? +9 seems unrealistic, and let’s remember Bredesen’s polls, even though this is a different situation.

Atlas gets a bit too obsessed with margins in polling - from Summer 2018 onward, Bredesen consistently polled in the mid-40's, almost the exact percentage of the vote that he got, with only a few exceptions. Blackburn mostly won over the last of the undecideds, likely due to Kavanaugh.