TN - SSRS/Vanderbilt University: Trump + 9

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/2020_Spring_topline.pdf

1000 registered voters
MoE 3.8%
May 5 - 22

Trump 51%
Biden 42%
Don't know 2%
Someone else 2%
Would not vote 2%
Refused 1%

[Brittain33]

We are getting quite a run of polls of safe Trump states this week. KY, OK, TN...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do we need polls from safe states, no we dont

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I could see a scenario where Biden hits 42% in Tennessee, but no Trump isn't going to be at 51 there.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Trump won TN by 35% in 2016. Trump +9 is.... something.

Even if all undecideds went to Trump and it was 58-42, that would still be +16, and less than half of his 2016 margin.

But if Biden is winning nationally by +10 compared to Hillary's +2, makes sense

[BlueSwan]

Wow. Trump won TN by 35% in 2016. Trump +9 is.... something.

Even if all undecideds went to Trump and it was 58-42, that would still be +16, and less than half of his 2016 margin.

But if Biden is winning nationally by +10 compared to Hillary's +2, makes sense

Trump won TN by 26% points in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Trump won TN by 35% in 2016. Trump +9 is.... something.

Even if all undecideds went to Trump and it was 58-42, that would still be +16, and less than half of his 2016 margin.

But if Biden is winning nationally by +10 compared to Hillary's +2, makes sense

Trump won TN by 26% points in 2016.

Oops, my bad bath. 61-35.

Trump +16 seems more likely than Trump +9, but hey, this is a weird cycle

[Kyng]

Two things to note here:

1) Tennessee polls were waaaaay out in 2016. They had Trump winning it by 10-15 points - and then, he wound up winning it by 26 points.  

2) If Trump really is leading by only 9 points... then, to be honest, I find that a little bit depressing. That would mean Biden is overperfoming HRC by 17 points in TN... but there's no polling to suggest that he's doing this nationwide (heck, even that CNN Biden +14 poll is still only a 12-point improvement on 2016). So, this would suggest that Biden is doing disproportionately well in TN... which in turn suggests that he's doing less well in other states (which might be more competitive).

Biden doesn't need to run up the numbers in safe blue states that he'll win anyway, or in safe red states that he won't win anyway. If his popular vote edge is coming primarily from overperforming HRC in these kinds of states (without flipping them), then that's bad news for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'd like to see the crosstabs from this.  ISTR that some past Vanderbilt polls have contained way too many college-educated voters for Tennessee.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting though to note that this poll had Trump's approval much higher in October 2018 (Trump +13) ... it's down to Trump +4 now

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump is slipping everywhere--meaning that this re-election is looking more like 1980 (where the downward trends for Carter were uniform) or possibly 1932 (where Hoover did relatively well in the East but was crushed everywhere else).

In any event, it means a substantial Biden victory in November.

[Alben Barkley]

Two things to note here:

1) Tennessee polls were waaaaay out in 2016. They had Trump winning it by 10-15 points - and then, he wound up winning it by 26 points.  

2) If Trump really is leading by only 9 points... then, to be honest, I find that a little bit depressing. That would mean Biden is overperfoming HRC by 17 points in TN... but there's no polling to suggest that he's doing this nationwide (heck, even that CNN Biden +14 poll is still only a 12-point improvement on 2016). So, this would suggest that Biden is doing disproportionately well in TN... which in turn suggests that he's doing less well in other states (which might be more competitive).

Biden doesn't need to run up the numbers in safe blue states that he'll win anyway, or in safe red states that he won't win anyway. If his popular vote edge is coming primarily from overperforming HRC in these kinds of states (without flipping them), then that's bad news for him.

There's no scenario in which Biden is making Tennessee single digits or close, yet also is losing Wisconsin and Arizona and etc. I wouldn't worry about it.

[Panda Express]

Do we need polls from safe states, no we dont

You can never have too many polls, amigo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do we need polls from safe states, no we dont

You can never have too many polls, amigo.

Yeah but they didnt poll the Senate race and neither did the OK  poll did. Who is gonna replace Alexander?

[Pollster]

This has Trump's approval at 51/47, so if anything their numbers show Biden underperforming.

That being said, I don't buy their numbers. I suspect their education weights are messed up, but I can't seem to find the numbers in the doc.

To be fair, though, they had Trump's approval at 55/42 in October 2018 and Blackburn wound up winning 55/44 (the same poll's ballot test was Bredesen 44/43, meaning they nailed Bredesen's ceiling and she won over the final undecideds). So perhaps their methodology isn't entirely wrong.

[eax]

Do we need polls from safe states, no we dont

You can never have too many polls, amigo.

Yeah but they didnt poll the Senate race and neither did the OK  poll did. Who is gonna replace Alexander?

Bill Haggerty is the clear frontrunner.

[SN2903]

Old poll. May 5th to 22nd?

[Brittain33]

Does TN have a Dem polling problem? +9 seems unrealistic, and let’s remember Bredesen’s polls, even though this is a different situation.

[Pollster]

Does TN have a Dem polling problem? +9 seems unrealistic, and let’s remember Bredesen’s polls, even though this is a different situation.

Atlas gets a bit too obsessed with margins in polling - from Summer 2018 onward, Bredesen consistently polled in the mid-40's, almost the exact percentage of the vote that he got, with only a few exceptions. Blackburn mostly won over the last of the undecideds, likely due to Kavanaugh.

[wbrocks67]

Important:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1270387872303120385

So let's assume undecideds break for Trump. Still only Trump +16 (58-42), a 10% decrease from his win in 2016 (Trump +26)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for Trump

[WD]

https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/2020_Spring_topline.pdf

1000 registered voters
MoE 3.8%
May 5 - 22

Trump 51%
Biden 42%
Don't know 2%
Someone else 2%
Would not vote 2%
Refused 1%

Even if 42% is what Biden ends up getting, thats slightly higher than share of the vote Obama got in 2008 (he got 41.79). Just goes to show how screwed Trump is.

[DrScholl]

At this point it's likely that Biden matches the numbers that Obama received, but does it by improving in suburbs.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

These numbers are either incorrect or Trump is completely ******, like Carter 1980/Bush 1992 levels of ******.

[Sbane]

Important:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1270387872303120385

So let's assume undecideds break for Trump. Still only Trump +16 (58-42), a 10% decrease from his win in 2016 (Trump +26)

We have seen similar weakness for Trump in the lower midwest in KY polls as well. Seems to corroborate polls out of Ohio as well. Perhaps all the undecideds break to Trump but Biden might already have close to 50% of the vote share in Ohio.