OK (Amber Integrated) - Trump +19
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Author Topic: OK (Amber Integrated) - Trump +19  (Read 8393 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: June 08, 2020, 09:58:42 PM »

Trump - 55
Biden - 36
Undecided - 5

500 LV, June 3-4, +/- 4.4%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Their last poll from March had Trump +24 (57-33).
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2020, 10:05:06 PM »

I dunno. This would be the closest result since 1996.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2020, 10:10:08 PM »

Wow, Biden leads in OK-05 (Horn's seat) with a majority at 50-44.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2020, 10:10:45 PM »

Biden would probably win Oklahoma county with 36% statewide.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2020, 10:16:58 PM »

Woah. This would probably line up with a Biden +10 environment.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2020, 10:17:30 PM »

Biden is at 41% in the 4th district (R+20 and Trump +38). Yes, polls tend to underestimate the dominant party in safe states, but we just might be seeing something crazy in November.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2020, 10:24:33 PM »

Biden is at 41% in the 4th district (R+20 and Trump +38). Yes, polls tend to underestimate the dominant party in safe states, but we just might be seeing something crazy in November.

Not to mention that especially against an incumbent, and if the election were to be held tomorrow, go chance that undecided voters might well break 2:1 Biden....

Fruit on the vine for a picking potentially....
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2020, 10:28:35 PM »

Remember that 538ís final 2016 forecast (on the morning of Election Day) had Trump winning OK by 26, yet he actually won by 36.
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Skunk
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2020, 10:30:49 PM »

I know it's junk but please just let me have this.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2020, 11:16:05 PM »

I can see this actually happening. Trump is losing lots of traditional suburban Republican voters in states all over and Oklahoma is no exception.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2020, 11:54:20 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2020, 01:21:35 AM by Panda Express »

Biden is going to win Oklahoma County, putting an end to the streak of the (atlas) Blue Oklahoma county sweep map we see every election.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2020, 11:56:04 PM »

Likely R
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WD
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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2020, 11:57:53 PM »

This might be underestimating Trump, but he won by 36 in 2016. We're in uncharted territory now. Something big is gonna happen in November
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2020, 12:07:51 AM »

This thread is pure comedy gold in hindsight.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2020, 05:09:42 AM »

Wow, Biden leads in OK-05 (Horn's seat) with a majority at 50-44.

It's definitely possible Biden brings Horn over the finish line.
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2020, 10:26:12 AM »

The Congressional district subsamples are tiny and have massive margins of error, don't put too much stock in them.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2020, 10:29:12 AM »

This might be underestimating Trump, but he won by 36 in 2016. We're in uncharted territory now. Something big is gonna happen in November

Trump "only" winning OK by 25 points on election night would be a disastrous result for him.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2020, 10:54:01 AM »

Biden is going to win Oklahoma County, putting an end to the streak of the (atlas) Blue Oklahoma county sweep map we see every election.

This sweep map has been ongoing since 2004, so a Biden victory in Oklahoma County would make him the first Democrat to win a county there since Al Gore twenty years ago. Even more importantly, he would be the first Democrat to win Oklahoma County in 56 years, since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964 (which was also the last time Oklahoma voted Democratic in a presidential election).

At any rate, if Biden is carrying Horn's district, then she is almost guaranteed to win reelection. Such a result in Oklahoma would portend swings against Trump in urban and suburban areas elsewhere in the country, swings that would result in his defeat.
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clever but short
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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2020, 05:17:35 PM »

Biden is going to win Oklahoma County, putting an end to the streak of the (atlas) Blue Oklahoma county sweep map we see every election.

This sweep map has been ongoing since 2004, so a Biden victory in Oklahoma County would make him the first Democrat to win a county there since Al Gore twenty years ago. Even more importantly, he would be the first Democrat to win Oklahoma County in 56 years, since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964 (which was also the last time Oklahoma voted Democratic in a presidential election).

At any rate, if Biden is carrying Horn's district, then she is almost guaranteed to win reelection. Such a result in Oklahoma would portend swings against Trump in urban and suburban areas elsewhere in the country, swings that would result in his defeat.

Horn appears to be underperforming the top of the ticket by a fair bit though.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2020, 06:12:38 PM »

New Poll: Oklahoma President by Other Source on 2020-06-04

Summary: D: 36%, R: 55%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2020, 06:13:17 PM »

Whoa, amber is the color of your energy
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2020, 06:56:27 PM »

Biden is going to win Oklahoma County, putting an end to the streak of the (atlas) Blue Oklahoma county sweep map we see every election.

This sweep map has been ongoing since 2004, so a Biden victory in Oklahoma County would make him the first Democrat to win a county there since Al Gore twenty years ago. Even more importantly, he would be the first Democrat to win Oklahoma County in 56 years, since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964 (which was also the last time Oklahoma voted Democratic in a presidential election).

At any rate, if Biden is carrying Horn's district, then she is almost guaranteed to win reelection. Such a result in Oklahoma would portend swings against Trump in urban and suburban areas elsewhere in the country, swings that would result in his defeat.

Horn appears to be underperforming the top of the ticket by a fair bit though.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

I wonder why this is the case. She is facing a relatively strong Republican candidate (Stephanie Bice), but in a district where Trump's approvals are underwater, I doubt that she would be hurt enough by her impeachment vote to lose.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
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« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2020, 07:03:36 AM »

Wow, Biden leads in OK-05 (Horn's seat) with a majority at 50-44.

Biden would probably win Oklahoma county with 36% statewide.

No. Just no. 🙅🏼‍♂️
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2020, 09:47:26 AM »

Wow, Biden leads in OK-05 (Horn's seat) with a majority at 50-44.

Biden would probably win Oklahoma county with 36% statewide.

No. Just no. 🙅🏼‍♂️


Well Biden didn't get 36% statewide as this poll said he would. Obviously he would have won OK county if he had.
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