N U T Part 3: The 2024 Election and a New America

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

2024: Democratic and Republican Primaries

1,991 needed to win
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 34 states+DA+MP+GU+VI, 1,924 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 15 states, 1,355 Delegates
Mayor Andrew Yang (D-NY): 1 state, 336 Delegates (Endorsed Ocasio-Cortez)
Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 2 states, 283 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 0 states+AS, 74 Delegates
Sec. of HUD Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 11 Delegates (Endorsed Sinema)
Att. Paul T. Ferrell Jr. (D-WV): 2 Delegates
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 1 Delegate (Endorsed Klobuchar, then Sinema)

OCASIO-CORTEZ+569 (↑197)

1,279 needed to win
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 32 states, 1,314 Delegates✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 20 states+MP+VI 1,167 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 37 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Uncommitted: AS+GU, 24 Delegates
Fmr. Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN): 12 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)
Mr. Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY): 3 Delegates (Endorsed Crapo)
Fmr. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 0 Delegates (Endorsed Haley)

CRAPO+147 (↑4)

Bill Kristol, Joe Walsh, Others Leave GOP
-MSNBC, 6/10/24

Trump, From Jail: "Crapo will bring Law and Order back to our great country, which faltered 4 years ago"
-ABC News, 6/12/24

Crapo in OANN Interview: I'll Select a True American Patriot as VP
-OANN, 6/13/24


Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round)
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/?: 34%
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/?: 26%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/?: 16%
Fmr. CEO Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/?: 4%
Libertarian Candidate: 3%
Green Candidate: 1%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 12%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What ideology/platform is McAdams running on?

Socially moderate-to-conservative, economically moderate with left leanings (but with a heavy emphasis on "responsible spending")

most members of the moderates fall under this. They basically say that economically, bernie had good intentions but went too far, and things should be scaled back a good bit. Want to scale back the tax increases on moderate-to-ultra wealthy people, though not completely to pre-bernie levels. Socially they're anti-abortion and such, but the social issues aren't the main thing this election.


I'll go more in depth with the platforms in the next update or the one after.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Where do candidates stand on "The Big Five" Issues (Top 5 issues based on polling)

Tax Rates
Crapo: Taxes have gone WAY too high! Go back to the old brackets but keep tax cuts to lower and middle classes. It's the one thing the communists in office got right. Cut taxes further on job creators.
AOC: What we've already done is a great start, but we need further increases on the wealthy to fund programs to help the people. Look at reducing tax rates for those in the lower 3/5s of the population. Increase the wealth tax.
McAdams: Bernie went too far with taxes, but we shouldn't go back to the way things were before. Cut income taxes a fixed % across the board, except for those who don't currently pay income tax.
Schultz: Return to the old brackets, get rid of loopholes.

Electoral Reform
Crapo: Democrats have destroyed a great American institution for their own gain. Bring back the Electoral College.
AOC: We've done good so far by eliminating the EC, but we still need to get rid of the FPTP system if we want to keep the current # of seats. MMP is a possibility for the house.
McAdams: Minor electoral reforms should still be made. A 2 round system makes sure that smaller parties have a better chance of having their voices heard.
Schultz: Same as McAdams.

Automation/UBI
Crapo: Protect American Industry. Heavy tariffs on those who use automation. Restrict or ban automation. UBI will bankrupt America.
AOC: Banning automation will only leave America behind the rest of the world. Strengthen unions so workers can fight back. Introduce a tax on robots. UBI needs to be considered to provide a floor for people.
McAdams: Invest more in re-employment assistance to help those who lose their jobs to get back on their feet. Very cautiously approach UBI. Wait for the results from trial runs to see if it works and is cost-effective.
Schultz: Don't interfere in the free market. Expand social safety nets and unemployment benefits.

Immigration
Crapo: Deport all illegals. Build the wall. Make sure any new legal immigrants assimilate.
AOC: Cut down on illegal immigration by streamlining the process to legally immigrate further. Open borders sound nice but are impractical.
McAdams: The current situation works fine as is, though parts of the process could be tweaked, such as cutting down on lottery immigration.
Schultz: Make it easier to immigrate in general. Decriminalize the border.

Economy/Regulation
Crapo: Our businesses suffer under government regulation. Veto new regulations and cut down on old ones. Dismantle the CFPB.
AOC: Regulation ensures that normal people aren't hurt by businesses who just want more money. Strengthen the CFPB. Split up big companies like Amazon.
McAdams: Don't hesitate to cut regulations that do nothing but hurt small business. Ensure the public is still protected from unfair business practices by keeping the CFPB.
Schultz: Let the market be! Drastically reduce the powers of the CFPB.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

VEEPSTAKES! (Part 1: The Big Two)

Crapo

Rep. Marjorie T. Greene

No image available
en:User:Cburnett / Public domain

Experience: Representative from Georgia's 14th Congressional District (2021-2023), 13th Congressional District (2023-)

A hardcore conservative, and one of Crapo's first and fiercest backers, Greene brings gender and regional balance, though certainly not ideological balance. With a history of racially charged remarks and repeatedly stating on the house floor that President Sanders is part of a "Jew socialist conspiracy to destroy America", she'd accelerate the exodus of Haley supporters from the party.

Fmr. Rep. Jeff Duncan

Jeff Duncan, Official Portrait, 112th Congress
US House of Representatives / Public domain

Experience: SC State Representative from the 15th District (2003-2011), Representative from South Carolina's 3rd District (2011-2023)

Another big supporter of Crapo, Duncan is slightly less inflammatory than Greene, though that isn't saying much. A hardcore conservative, Duncan will solidify his southern base at the expense of mainstream conservatives.

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith

Cindy Hyde-Smith official photo
U.S. Senate / Public domain

Experience: Mississippi State Senator from the 39th district (2000-2012), Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce (2012-2018), Senator from Mississippi (2018-), Senate Minority Leader (2021-)

The most "establishment" and experienced option, Hyde-Smith seems reluctant to take a spot on the ticket, though she would also be arguably the best pick for Crapo. She appeals to some Haley supporters and solidifies the southern base. Hyde-Smith was slow to support Crapo however.

Ocasio-Cortez

Gov. John Fetterman

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman Portrait (46874790005)
Governor Tom Wolf from Harrisburg, PA / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

Experience: Mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania (2005-2019), Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019-2023), Governor of Pennsylvania (2023-)

A strong, populist pick with progressive tendencies, Fetterman is undoubtably qualified, but it's up in the air whether he wishes to stay Governor or become Vice President. He's also being considered for Secretary of HUD due to his experience as Mayor.

Sen. Anthony Foxx

Anthony Foxx official portrait
Department of Transportation / Public domain

Experience: Mayor of Charlotte (2009-2013), Secretary of Transportation (2013-2017), Senator from North Carolina (2021-)

The preferred pick by mainstream elements of the party, Foxx has a strong background, saving Charlotte during the worst recession in decades. He's in the middle of the party, voting for most of President Sanders' proposals.

Sen. Carmen Yulin Cruz

Carmenyulin
Melvin Alfredo (User: Puertorriquenosoy) / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)

Experience: Puerto Rican Territorial Representative from the at-large district (2009-2013), Mayor of San Juan (2013-2021), Senator from Puerto Rico (2023-)

An odd choice, Cruz would make the whole ticket have Puerto Rican heritage. She's unlikely to be selected, but has been suggested by some.

Sen. Jaime Harrison

DNC Winter Meet 0498 Jamie Harrison (33210877215) (cropped)
Edward Kimmel from Takoma Park, MD / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

Experience: SC Democratic Party Chair (2013-2017), Senator from South Carolina (2021-)

The choice of party moderates, Harrison is one of the least moderate Southern Senators, but this is the exact reason he is their choice. A leftist like AOC seems unlikely to select someone more moderate than Harrison.

Harrison gained national notoriety by narrowly beating Lindsey Graham in 2020.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

VEEPSTAKES! (Part 2: Minor Parties)

McAdams

Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott

Phil Scott 2017 (cropped)
US Embassy Canada / Public domain

Experience: Vermont State Senator from the Washington District (2001-2011), Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (2011-2017), Governor of Vermont (2017-2021)

The most likely choice, Scott emphasizes the important fiscal responsibility planks in the Moderate platform. Scott left the GOP as it became more obvious that Crapo would win. However, there have been rumblings of him returning to run for Governor once again...

Sen. Mitch Landrieu

Mayor Mitch Landrieu 2010
Infrogmation (talk) of New Orleans / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)

Experience: Louisiana State Representative from the 89th District (1988-1992), 90th District (1992-2004), Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (2004-2010), Mayor of New Orleans (2010-2018), Senator from Louisiana (2021-), Moderate Senate Whip (2023-)

Reportedly McAdams' "fallback option" if Scott runs for Governor, Landrieu was part of the first group of Moderate Senators. He would solidify the southern moderate vote, but has limited appeal to Haley Republicans.

Schultz

Fmr. Rep. John Delaney

John Delaney 113th Congress official photo
United States Congress / Public domain

Experience: Representative for Maryland's 6th Congressional District (2013-2019)

A moderate with similar views to Schultz, Delaney seems very eager for the job. However, he isn't well known.

Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash

Justin Amash official photo
public domain / Public domain

Experience: Michigan State Rep. from the 72nd District (2009-2011), Representative from Michigan's 3rd Congressional District (2011-2021)

One of the frontrunners for Libertarians, Amash could join Schultz and try and get him the Libertarian nomination. Schultz has been pushing for this behind the scenes. However, this isn't likely. He'd be extremely helpful in attracting more moderate Republicans.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As happy as I'd be with either Harrison or Fetterman, the pickings for VP seem a bit slim. How about a southerner like Chokwe Antar Lumumba or Charles Booker? Or even someone outside the box, like Kaniela Ing?

I'll be honest and just say that I was a bit lazy by not expanding it more. Lumumba is definitely on AOC's list, with a good track record as Bernie's Sec. of Transportation.

I'll probably put up a list of potential VPs that is less detailed next update.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Expanded list of potential VPs in no particular order [All of these have been mentioned by the media at least 2 mainstream outlets]

CRAPO

• Rep. Matt Gaetz
• State Rep. Matt Shea
• Gov. Kay Ivey
• Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton
• Gov. Mark Gordon
• AL Supreme Court Justice Tom Parker
• Cartoonist Ben Garrison

OCASIO-CORTEZ

• Sec. of Transportation Chokwe Antar Lumumba
• Sen. Tammy Baldwin
• Rep. Ro Khanna
• Fmr. ID Senate Minority Leader Michelle Stennett
• Sec. of Interior Paulette Jordan
• Sen. Richard Ojeda
• Mayor Andrew Yang
• Gov. Andrew Gillum
• Sen. Julian Castro
• Sen. Brian Schatz
• OMB Director Brian Schweitzer

MCADAMS

• Fmr. Rep. Dan Lipinski
• Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker
• Sen. Lisa Murkowski

SCHULTZ

• Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg
• Mr. Jeff Bezos
• Mr. Mark Zuckerberg

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Fetterman: "I made a promise to serve Pennsylvania, and I won't betray it" "I won't accept the Vice Presidency"
-CNN, 6/20/24

Ben Garrison Releases Cartoon Depicting AOC as Judas Betraying America
-FOX News, 6/21/24

Crapo: Marxist Agitators Spreading Propaganda to Kill America
-OANN, 6/22/24

Trump Jr. Announces Formation of "Trump News Network" or TNN
-Washington Post, 6/24/24

Amash: "No, I don't think I will" be Schultz's VP
-POLITICO, 6/26/24

Moderate Convention Begins
-Salt Lake Tribune, 6/27/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

THE MODERATE CONVENTION
Salt Lake City, UT

Uofu huntsmancenter
Klubbit / Public domain

Jon M. Huntsman Center

The Moderate Convention came in with strong hopes. The first day was a celebration of the 1-year-anniversary of the party being founded. Despite being such a new force, the Jon Huntsman Center was nearly full.

The next days would see speeches from multiple figures, including Senators Joe Manchin (M-WV), John Bel Edwards (M-LA), Lisa Murkowski (M-AK), and a surprise appearance by Fmr. Governor Charlie Baker, who announced on-stage that he was changing his party registration to Moderate. This fueled a lot of speculation that he would be McAdams' VP.

Ben McAdams 2015
US Department of Labor / Public domain
McAdams talking to the press before announcing his VP pick

But on the third night, McAdams took the stage.

...he is a great man, a competent governor. He worked across the aisle to ensure that solutions were made. He is a living, breathing manifestation of Rockefeller Republicanism, what the GOP should be, rather than the extremist mess it is now. It is my great honor to introduce the next Vice President of the United States, Phil Scott!!!

The 4th day would begin the Presidential Balloting. The results were no surprise.

FOR PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
501 Delegates needed for Majority
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT): 953 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (M-MA): 20 Delegates
Fmr. Rep. Dan Lipinski (M-IL): 14 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 5 Delegates
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 4 Delegates
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA): 2 Delegates


FOR VICE PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
501 Delegates needed for Majority
Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 941 Delegates ✔
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (M-MA): 23 Delegates
Sen. John Bel Edwards (M-LA): 20 Delegates
Fmr. Rep. Dan Lipinski (M-IL): 11 Delegates
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI): 5 Delegates

MODERATE PARTY TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT)

A BETTER PATH FOR AMERICA
Ben McAdams, official portrait, 116th Congress
United States Congress / Public domain
Phil Scott 2017
US Embassy Canada / Public domain

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [July 2, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/?: 32% (↓-2)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/?: 23% (↓-3)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 20% (↑+4)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/?: 4% (→ +/- 0)
Libertarian Candidate: 3% (→ +/- 0)
Green Candidate: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 2% (↓-1)
Undecided: 14% (↑+2)


LNC Selects Justin Amash as Presidential Candidate, Despite Pushback from Diehard Libertarians in Pheonix Convention
Arizona Republic, 7/3/24

LIBERTARIAN TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash/Mr. Larry Sharpe


BETTER, NOT BIGGER GOVERNMENT

[url=https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Larry_Sharpe_portrait.jpg]Larry Sharpe portrait
Brian William Waddell / Public domain
Justin Amash official photo
public domain / Public domain

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Mike

Mike Crapo sat at the end of the table, gazing over the multiple aides as one wrote down the names.

Greene
Duncan
Gaetz
Cotton
Ivey

It wasn't a long list. Most names speculated in the media were laughable. Others had already said they weren't going to do it.

"Alright, who do we cross off first?"
"Well, uh... what's your name again, kid?" Crapo pointed to the aide who had just written the names.
"Daniel Redmon, sir."
"Daniel, I wanna know what you think. I want to see if we're on the same frame of mind."
"Well, sir, I'd say Gaetz and Duncan share a pretty similar lane. One of them should go. I may be biased since I grew up in Duncan's district, but I'd say Gaetz."
"You're damn right, kid."

and it continued on.
Soon...

Greene
Duncan
Gaetz
Cotton
Ivey

"Cotton's our best bet to try and get the party together. Have you seen the polls? We're damn near third place. Third place!"
"You know those polls are mainstream fake news BS."

*Ding*

"What do Duncan and Greene bring to the table?"
"American values, god damn it!"

Mike looked down at his phone. An email from Greene.

"You best damn remember that you wouldn't be in this position if I hadn't called in those favors in Oregon Michigan and Pennsylvania. Remember that."

He sighed. This was gonna be tough.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Alex

Senator Ocasio-Cortez sat silently. Take-out from one of her favorite joints in the Bronx was getting cold, but she didn't want to start eating until after he showed up. She had found that a one-on-one interaction over light food and drinks was actually a good way to tell if she could work with people. She took another look at the list on her phone.

Ojeda
Lumumba
Harrison
Castro
Foxx
Baldwin

Ojeda was losing it. Castro eventually decided no.

She looked up from her phone.

"Hey Jaime, I didn't hear you come in."


Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [July 5, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/?: 31% (↓-1)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/?: 22% (↓-1)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 22% (↑+2)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/?: 4% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (↑ +1)
Green Candidate: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 2% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 13% (↓-1)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Green Party Nominates Fmr. Youngstown OH BoE Member Dario Hunter for President, Fmr. Marina, CA Mayor Bruce Delgado for Vice President
-POLITICO, 7/6/24

GREEN TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado

A NEW GREEN ERA, A NEW GREEN AMERICA
Dario Hunter headshot
Dario Hunter.  Website states: Unless otherwise noted, images on this site belong to Dario Hunter and he has allowed for their use under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License./ CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
"Warhorse Day, Jan. 30" by Presidio of Monterey: DLIFLC & USAG is licensed under CC PDM 1.0. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ Edited. Original image: https://search.creativecommons.org/photos/d904d684-75cf-43c3-a7c1-626e3a91b123

Fmr. Gov. Cagle Confuses Internet and Pundits with Pledge to Not Run for Senate in 2026
-FOX News, 7/6/24

Why Are So Many GA Republicans Saying They Won't Run for Senate?
-FiveThirtyEight, 7/7/24

"has anyone noticed that @RepMTGreene hasn't said she won't run?"
@Chibi_Cat_Panda, 7/7/24 7:38 pm

Mike Crapo Announces His VP Pick: Former Senator Tom Cotton
-CNN, 7/7/24

Howard Schultz Campaign Megathread: Liberal Lattes, Delaney Donuts
Title of Atlas Forum Thread, 7/7/24

Liberal Party Convention Day 1 Attendance Not Released, Many Presume Abysmal Turnout
-Seattle Times, 7/8/24

LIBERAL TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
Mr. Howard Schultz/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney

A STRONG, FREE AMERICA
John Delaney 113th Congress official photo
United States Congress / Public domain
Howard Schultz by Gage Skidmore
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)

Republican Convention Begins with Protests in Fort Worth
-ABC News, 7/12/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION
Fort Worth, Texas

Interior of Fort Worth Convention Center
Forth Worth Convention Center-panorama
Kevin Muncie / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

The Republican Convention began with uncertainty. Crapo, the presumptive nominee, was extremely divisive. Figures like Bill Kristol had left the party in disgust. Moderates and even some conservatives were looking at the McAdams/Scott ticket for the best contender against AOC. Crapo knew this, and went with a pick that was specifically targeted towards those conservatives.

Former Senator Tom Cotton, beaten by Fmr. Governor Beebe in the great Democratic wave, had not faded away from the national scene as so many believed he would after his loss. He remained a steadfast conservative speaker, often appearing on Fox and Friends and OANN. Cotton had actually endorsed Haley after Pence dropped out, making the pick look even more unifying.

Day 1 was devoted to The Past, with figures such as Fmr. VP Mike Pence, Fmr. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and a letter reading from Fmr. President Donald Trump by Donald Trump Jr. Notably, Fmr. President George W. Bush did not make an appearance.

Day 2 was devoted to The Future, with younger figures such as Fmr. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Rep. Matt Gaetz, and Ben Shapiro, who is running for Senate in California. On this day, most of Baker's delegation, led by Fmr. Vermont House of Reps. Minority Leader Don Turner, walked out.

On this night, the Presidential Ballot was held.

FOR PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
1,279 needed to win
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID): 1,335 ✔
Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-SC): 1,170
Fmr. Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R-IN): 12
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (M-MA): 8
Mr. Donald Trump Jr. (R-NY): 3
Absent: 29

FOR VICE PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
1,279 needed to win
Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 1,794✔
Fmr. Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL): 734
Absent: 29

Day 3 was devoted to Haley's Faction, with Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley speaking, officially endorsing Crapo. Other speakers included Haley's VP nominee Fmr. Rep. Brian Mast and early supporter Gov. Doug Burgum.

Days 4 and 5 were devoted to Crapo's Faction, featuring many controversial names like Fmr. Sen. Mike Lee, Fmr. Rep. Jeff Duncan, Rep. Marjorie Greene, Fmr. Sen. John Hoeven. An odd appearance was from Fmr. President Obama's Brother Malik Obama, who introduced Fmr. Sen. Cotton. The move was considered extremely odd, and many condemned Malik's birtherist comments about his brother that he made during his introduction.

Of course, the final speech was given by Mike Crapo.

...I accept this party's nomination because we are the best hope against socialism. I accept this party's nomination because we stand at a precipice. Will we fall off the edge into tyranny? Or will we bring ourselves back towards freedom? I accept this party's nomination because this party stands against the anti-american rabble that plague this country. Just outside we see them chant hatred towards white Americans and proud Americans. I accept this party's nomination because, in short, we need to Make America Great once again.

REPUBLICAN TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
Sen. Mike Crapo/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton

A GREATER ERA
Tom Cotton official Senate photo
United States Congress / Public domain
Mike Crapo Official Photo 110th Congress
United States Senate / Public domain

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So what are y’all’s thoughts? Who do you support?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [July 18, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/?: 30% (↓-1)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 26% (↑+4)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 19% (↓-3)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 3% (↓-1)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 2% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 15% (↑+2)

Post Convention, Crapo Gets a Bump, but Remains in Second
-FiveThirtyEight, 7/19/24

AOC Joins McAdams, Amash and Hunter in Push for 2 Debate Tiers
-POLITICO, 7/19/24

?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @ Women's March NYC (46115223655)
Dimitri Rodriguez / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

"...which is why we need the Green New Deal. Not just for us, but for our children and grandchildren. We are not going to let our planet fall to greed and pollution..."

Deep breaths. It's a little nerve wracking, but you've got this.

"...and one last thing I want to say to you all, I have someone to introduce. He's been a great Senator for you all..."

*Cheers*

Alright. Let's do this.

"...Greenville, meet your next Vice President..."

*CHEERS*

JAIME HARRISON!


AOC Announces Sen. Jaime Harrison as Running Mate
-Greenville News, 7/19/24

Democrat All-Minority Ticket Shows Hatred of Most Americans
-OANN, 7/20/24

Despite pushback from Crapo, the debate schedule is set: 3 Presidential Debates, 1 VP Debate, 1 Tier for Candidates Over 10%, 1 for Candidates Polling 1-10%
@natesilver538, 7/21/24 6:58 PM

It is impossible to overstate how big of a win this is for minor parties. @AOC pushed hard for the tiers despite her advisors saying she shouldn't.
@natesilver538, 7/21/24 7:04 PM

Democratic Convention Begins in Kansas City
-CNN, 7/22/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION
Kansas City, MO

Entrance to Sprint Center
Sprint Center entrance Kansas City Missouri
User:Charvex / Public domain

The Democratic Convention began with extremely high hopes. President Sanders remained popular, as was his heir-apparent and now presumptive nominee Ocasio-Cortez.

At the beginning of 2024 it appeared that the party could split, as rumors of AOC allies creating the Socialist Democrats were passed around establishment circles. These rumors were mostly false however, and AOC won in a similar fashion to Bernie: a narrow loss in Iowa, a big win in NV, and a split moderate field on Super Tuesday.

Things weren't completely good, however, as security caught two armed men believed to be far-right extremists trying to kill multiple high-ranking Democrats. Luckily, this was the only incident, and was prevented easily.

Day 1 was devoted to The Moderates, with focus on figures such as Sen. Joe Cunningham, Sen. Doug Jones and of course Sen. Kyrsten Sinema speaking. Sinema was expected to withdraw her name from consideration, but did not, sparking minor outrage in online left circles.

Day 2 was for Expertise, a field that many detractors within the party felt AOC lacked. Speakers included Sec. of Transportation Chokwe Antar Lumumba, EPA Administrator Al Gore, Sec. of HHS Howard Dean, and Sec. of HUD Pete Buttigieg. All affirmed AOC's work with them as both a Represenative and Senator to craft legislation.

Day 3 was for Unity, including speeches from Primary rivals Mayor Andrew Yang, Governor Gavin Newsom, and Vice President Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar and Yang announced their withdrawal from the balloting process.

This would be the day balloting began.

FOR PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
1,991 needed to win
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): 2,276 ✔
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): 1,487
Amb. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): 74
Mayor Andrew Yang (D-NY): 69
Vice Pres. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 67
Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D-IN): 11
Att. Paul T. Ferrell Jr. (D-WV): 2
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 1

FOR VICE PRESIDENT (1st Ballot)
Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): By Acclamation ✔

Day 4 was for The Past, including Fmr. President Barack Obama, Sec. of State Michelle Obama, a video address from Fmr. President Jimmy Carter, and finally the big speaker of the night: President Bernie Sanders. The Clintons were absent, some speculating that they refused, others asserting that they were blocked out.

Day 5 was dedicated to Our Bright Future, with generally young, more progressive speakers such as Gov. John Fetterman, Rep. Carlos Ramierez-Rosa, Rep. Lee Carter, Mayor London Breed, and State Rep. Summer Lee, who introduced Sen. Jaime Harrison. He introduced Sen. Ocasio-Cortez.

As I said a little over 6 years ago, I can not put this into words. Thank you all.

...

I believe that we can make a better future for everyone.  I accept this party's nomination because we won't wait, we can not wait, we can't afford to wait- to change the world. We'll continue the progress we've made these past four years, and we will go beyond.

DEMOCRATIC TICKET FOR PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
SEN. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ/SEN. JAIME HARRISON

MOVE AMERICA FORWARD

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Official Portrait
Franmarie Metzler; U.S. House Office of Photography / Public domain
DNC Winter Meet 0498 Jamie Harrison (33210877215) (cropped)
Edward Kimmel from Takoma Park, MD / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [July 24-31, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 36% (↑+6)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 24% (↓-2)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 16% (↓-3)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 3% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 1% (↓-1)
Undecided: 15% (→ +/- 0)

The Conservative Case for McAdams
-The Washington Free Beacon, 7/27/24

Constitution Party Endorses Crapo, Will Not Field a Candidate
-Ballot Access News, 7/27/24

OANN Poll: AOC Ahead 8 Nationally, Undecideds Go Crapo+7 When Pushed
-OANN, 7/30/24

Democrat Hacks FiveThirtyEight Call OANN Poll "Dubious"
-OANN, 7/30/24

Gunfire Outside of AOC Rally in Omaha Kills 4, Gunman Part of Three Percenter Movement
-MSNBC, 8/1/24

Rep. Marjorie Greene: "Those anti-American scum deserve to get what's coming to 'em"
-CNN, 8/2/24

"Ocasio-Cortez wants destruction of our system. Crapo wants racism to go unchecked. We just want a better government for Americans.
-Rep. Ben McAdams in Manchester, New Hampshire

"These socialists and cloaked socialists keep saying racism is the issue, when it's really the destruction of our American way of life. The elites won't stop beating us down."
-Sen. Mike Crapo in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

"The vast majority of people in this country are better off than they were 4 years ago. We can't let that progress stop, and I have no intention of letting it stop."
-Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Tuscon, Arizona

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Trump Reportedly Having Health Problems
-ABC News, 8/4/24

Why AOC's Lead Should Worry Democrats
-POLITICO, 8/5/24

Crapo After Nazi Salute Given by Group of Supporters at Rally: "We're Americans, not Nazis"
-CNN, 8/6/24

Explosion at Stone Mountain Monument Causes Minor Damage
-MSNBC, 8/7/24

Antifa is Responsible, and Need to be Called What They Are: Terrorists
-OANN, 8/7/24

Amazon Appealing Ruling to Supreme Court
-Business Insider, 8/8/24

Head-to-Head Polling Shows AOC Far Ahead of Crapo, Narrowly Ahead of McAdams
-New York Times, 8/9/24

"We have to come to the reality that many jobs have been taken by automation. We need a better safety net to ensure that people don't fall deeper and deeper into the pit of poverty and despair. A Guaranteed Income is the best way to do this."
-Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Macon, Georgia

"You think money grows on trees? Of course it don't! The real problem here folks is that some people are killing the economy, then paying people like AOC to defend them. I won't have any mercy for 'em. I'd put 'em up against the wall if I could, but no, no. Justice will be served."
-Sen. Mike Crapo in Altoona, Pennsylvania

"What you hear on both sides is craziness. On one side, you hear screams of free money, causing money's value to go down and put everybody where they were, and on the other you hear Hitler's speeches of 90 years ago."
-Rep. Ben McAdams in Flagstaff, Arizona

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

AG Teachout Orders Investigation of MI, PA, OR Republican Primaries, Cites "Unusual Reports" of Election in Rural Areas
-Washington Post, 8/11/24

The communists who Haley is in cahoots with are trying to steal the election once again. Any real American needs to oppose this extrajudicial and illegal investigation
@RepMTGreene, 8/11/24, 2:24 PM

Crapo: I'd "100%" Impeach Bernie-appointed Judges, "He's an illegitimate president and his judges are too"
-FOX News, 8/12/24

Big Tech is Nervous About AOC
-Business Insider, 8/13/24

Poll Crosstabs Continue to Show Polarization Between Urban White+Minority and Rural Whites
-FiveThirtyEight, 8/14/24

1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [August 7-14, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 38% (↑+2)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 23% (↓-1)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 16% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 2% (↓-1)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 15% (→ +/- 0)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

"She and I have been talking about it for quite some time, and I think she has come around to the idea. Look, I think her concerns are some of the best questions I still had about UBI even when I ran in 2020, but with the right protocols those issues don't even pop up."
-Mayor Andrew Yang on AOC's pivot on UBI, on Yang Speaks podcast, 8/14/24

President Sanders Announces "New War on Poverty"
-MSNBC, 8/15/24

Iranian Leader Khamenei Dead at 85
-CNN, 8/16/24

New Wave of Protests Erupt in Iran
-FOX News, 8/17/24

Far-Right Groups Converge at Stone Mountain
-The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 8/19/24

Reps. Steve King and Marjorie Greene Address Crowd of 2nd Amendment Supporters and Patriots
-OANN, 8/19/24

Anonymous DSA Member Who Attended Stone Mountain Gathering in Secret Says He Heard Several Plots to Kill AOC
-Jacobin, 8/20/24

AOC Says Her Campaign Will Step Up Security
-ABC News, 8/20/24

Supreme Court Will Hear Amazon.com Inc. v. Washington Case
-CNN, 8/22/24

Unveiling the New Polling Map Tracker
-FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/24

1 Week Average Polling: U.S. Presidential Election, 2024 (1st Round) [August 16-23, 2024]
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 39% (↑+1)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 24% (↑+1)
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 15% (↓-1)
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 4% (→ +/- 0)
Mr. Howard Schultz (Lbl-WA)/Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (Lbl-MD): 2% (→ +/- 0)
Fmr. BoE Member Dario Hunter (G-OH)/Fmr. Mayor Bruce Delgado (G-CA): 1% (→ +/- 0)
Other: 1% (→ +/- 0)
Undecided: 14% (↓-1)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Loving this timeline. Very interesting (though I think AOC would get curb-stomped in a national election).

I think right now (and probably 2024) you're right, though afterwards as the new generations (where "socialism" is no longer a dirty word) vote, she'd have a better and better chance.

As far as this TL goes, she's got the support of an incumbent popular president (Bernie approvals are high singles in net positive at this point), she's played her cards right in this TL to appeal a little better to those outside of the hardcore socialist and progressive wings of the party (her VP pick signifies that pretty well, and she's also mellowing out slightly irl by my perception) and she has the added benefit of her two main opponents being either crazy right-wing or from a party with little infrastructure (the moderates are just over a year old).

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Let's take a break from the presidential election and take some looks at the Senate.

ARIZONA
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Fmr. Rep. Andy Biggs

Andy Biggs official portrait
U.S. Congress / Public domain
Kyrsten Sinema (cropped)
US House office of photography / Public domain

Sinema dropped out of the Presidential race just in time to file to run for re-election. Arizona is a continually democratic-leaning state, and with Sinema also receiving support from most Moderates (no Moderate Party candidate filed) she seems to be a shoo-in for re-election.

Poll Average: SINEMA+9

Democratic Senate Primary, AZ
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema: 81.3%✔
Mrs. Sheila Bilyeu: 18.7%

Republican Senate Primary, AZ
Fmr. Rep. Andy Biggs: 53.3% ✔
Fmr. Rep. Debbie Lesko: 30.4%
State Sen. Steve Smith: 16.3%

CALIFORNIA
Mayor London Breed vs. Mr. Elon Musk

Elon Musk Royal Society
The Royal Society / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Mayor Breed
Office of Mayor London Breed / Public domain

In one of the strangest races of the cycle, the Primary Senate election saw a nearly 4-way tie between Incumbent Moderate Senator Dianne Feinstein, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and Conservative Pundit Ben Shapiro. all candidates were positioned around 21% of the vote, and numerous recounts ended with Breed and Musk narrowly making it. This is considered quite a competitive race, as Musk has support of the large tech companies, while Breed has much of the California politicians on her side.

POLLING AVERAGE: BREED+3

Senate Primary, CA
Mayor London Breed (D): 21.86% ✔
Mr. Elon Musk (D): 21.77% ✔
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (M): 21.71%
Mr. Ben Shapiro (R): 21.55%
Mr. Cenk Ugyur (D): 3.55%
Fmr. Mayor Alan Autry (R): 3.33%
Mr. Rocky de la Fuente (R): 2.45%
Mr. Zoltan Istvan (Lbn): 1.01%

All others under 1%

CONNECTICUT
Sen. Chris Murphy vs. Mrs. Candace Owens

Candace Owens by Gage Skidmore 3
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Chris Murphy, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped)
United States Senate / Public domain

Owens may be a conservative star, but in this deeply Democratic state she stands little chance.

POLLING AVERAGE: MURPHY+12

DELAWARE
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester vs. Fmr. State Treasurer Ken Simpler

Kenneth A. Simpler
Oceantulip / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Lisa Blunt Rochester official photo
US House Office of Photography / Public domain

With Sen. Carper retiring, incumbent Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester easily beat out minor opponents. Meanwhile only Fmr. Treasurer Ken Simpler ran. Rochester is almost certain to win.

POLLING AVERAGE: ROCHESTER+15

Democratic Senate Primary, DE
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester: 71.3%✔
State Rep. Debra Hefferman: 17.6%
Mayor Eric Scott Thompson: 11.1%

FLORIDA
Lt. Governor Chris King vs. Fmr. Mayor Francis Suarez vs. Rep. Charlie Crist

Charlie Crist 115th Congress photo
United States House of Representatives / Public domain
Francis Suarez
City of Miami / Public domain
ChrisKing2018
El Nic / CC0

Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson retired, and an interesting 3-way race has begun. Moderate candidate Rep. Crist remains in 3rd, but is taking nearly 15% of the vote in most polls.

POLLING AVERAGE: KING+3

Democratic Senate Primary, FL
Lt. Governor Chris King: 60.1%✔
Mayor Teri Johnston: 21.0%
Fmr. Mayor Wayne Messam: 18.9%

Republican Senate Primary, FL
Fmr. Mayor Francis Suarez: 47.7%✔
Fmr. State Att. Gen. Ashley Moody: 43.5%
Mr. Augustus Sol Invictus: 8.8%

HAWAII
Sen. Mazie Hirono vs. Fmr. Lt. Governor Duke Aiona

Duke Aiona
U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. Jerome S. Tayborn / Public domain
Mazie Hirono, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped)
United States Senate / Public domain

Not even close to a close race here in a titanium D state.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

INDIANA
Sen. Joe Donnelly vs. Rep. Greg Pence

Greg Pence, official portrait, 116th Congress
Eric Connolly / Public domain
Joe Donnelly, official portrait, 113th Congress
United States Senate Photographic Studio / Public domain

A unique race, the Indiana Democratic Party did not field a candidate in order to prevent the possibility of Pence winning with a plurality. Either way, Pence is favored in this race.

POLLING AVERAGE: PENCE+6

MAINE
State Sen. President Troy Jackson vs. Fmr. Governor Paul LePage

Paul LePage by Gage Skidmore
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Maine Senate President Troy Jackson
207politics / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

A colorful, though not particularly close race, Jackson and LePage's rivalry has led to one of the most entertaining or annoyingly combative senate races this cycle, depending on who you ask.

POLLING AVERAGE: JACKSON+9

MARYLAND
State Comp. Peter Franchot vs. Del. Richard Impallaria

No image available
en:User:Cburnett / Public domain
Franchot2008official photo emai version web
Comptroller's Office / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)

With an extremely popular Democrat and a scandal ridden Republican, this race may see one of the largest margins.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

Democratic Senate Primary, MD
Comptroller Peter Franchot: 48.8%✔
Rep. Kweisi Mfume: 44.3%
Ms. Chelsea Manning: 6.9%

Republican Senate Primary, MD
Del. Richard Impallaria: 28.9%✔
Fmr. State Att. Gen. John Wobensmith: 28.3%
State House Min. Whip Kathy Szeliga: 23.3%
Mayor Raymond Morriss: 19.5%

MASSACHUSETTS
Sen. Elizabeth Warren vs. Mr. John Kingston III

John Kingston Head Shot
Calboarder24 / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Elizabeth Warren, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped)(2)
United States Senate / Public domain

Despite assumptions that she would retire, Warren has elected to run for re-election. With little opposition, she's expected to win in a landslide.

POLLING AVERAGE: WARREN+25

MICHIGAN
Fmr. Health Director Abdul El-Sayed vs. Fmr. Rep. Fred Upton

El-Sayed, Abdul (cropped)
Fred Upton 113th Congress photo
US House Office of Photography / Public domain
Tamekia Ashford, Communications Manager / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

With Stabenow retiring, a crowded Democratic field emerged with Fmr. Detroit Health Director El-Sayed as the victor, though only barely.

Democratic Senate Primary, MI
Fmr. Health Director Abdul El-Sayed: 37.8%✔
Fmr. US Att. Barbara McQuade : 36.6%
Macomb County Executive Mark Hagel: 14.4%
Fmr. Rep. Bart Stupak: 8.9%
Fmr. Mayor Dayne Walling: 2.4%

Republican Senate Primary, MI
Fmr. Rep. Fred Upton: 51.9%✔
Fmr. State House Speaker Lee Chatfield: 48.1%

POLLING AVERAGE: EL-SAYED+5


So far:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

AOC Surprises Many, Says "I'd be open" to Moderates in Cabinet
-Washington Post, 8/25/24

"TREASURY SECRETARY PHIL SCOTT WHEN"
-KaiserDave, 8/25/24

Romney Leaves Republican Party, Will Run As Independent
-The Deseret News, 8/26/24

Despite National Wave, Democrats Luck is Running Dry in WV
-New York Times, 8/27/24

No Communication Coming from Tehran, Potential Coup
-CNN, 8/28/24

Major General Mohammad Bagheri: The Unrest Stops Now
-MSNBC 8/29/24

Iranian Military Retreats from Mahshahr as Protesters Take the City
-Al Jazeera, 8/30/24

"There is no question about it. Iran is on the brink of Civil War."
-President Bernie Sanders during press conference, 8/30/24

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Senate races continued!

MINNESOTA
Sen. Peggy Flanagan vs. State Sen. Minority Leader Jeremy Miller

Minnesota Senate President Jeremy Miller
Minnesota Senate Republicans / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)
PeggyFlanagan
Jonathunder / GFDL 1.2 (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/old-licenses/fdl-1.2.html)

Not an extremely interesting race, despite the initial prospects of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell running, he decided to run for Congress to replace retiring Rep. Tom Emmer.

POLLING AVERAGE: FLANAGAN+10

MISSISSIPPI
Fmr. State Party Chair Jamie Franks vs. Sen. Roger Wicker

SenatorRogerWicker(R-MS)
United States Senate / Public domain
Jamie Franks
NatalieMaynor from Jackson, Mississippi, USA / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

In this heavily racially polarized state, Democrats stand little chance.

POLLING AVERAGE: WICKER+8

MISSOURI
Sen. Claire McCaskill vs. Fmr. State Rep. Marsha Haefner

Marsha Haefner at Business
Akneeps / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Claire McCaskill, 113th official photo (cropped 2)
Office of Senator Claire McCaskill / Public domain

McCaskill's luck may finally run out in this reddening state. Her strategic decision to remain with the Democrats (to prevent a moderate-democrat vote split) has worked against her, with Republicans targeting her as a "socialist puppet".

POLLING AVERAGE: HAEFNER+6

MONTANA
Sen. Jon Tester vs. Ret. Navy SEAL Robert O'Neill

Navy SEAL Robert O'Neill CRC Public Relations / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
JonTester (cropped)
U.S. Congress / Public domain

Once again, Tester faces a close race, this time against the Navy SEAL who killed bin Laden.

POLLING AVERAGE: TESTER+3

NEBRASKA
Mr. Mark Elworth vs. Sen. Deb Fischer

Deb Fischer, official portrait, 115th Congress (cropped)
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio / Public domain
Mark Elworth
Krystal Gabel / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)

Incumbent Sen. Fischer faces minor opposition from former NE-03 D candidate and Legal Marijuana activist Mark Elworth.

POLLING AVERAGE: FISCHER+22

NEVADA
Sen. Jacky Rosen vs. County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian

Danny Tarkanian by Gage Skidmore
Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
Jacky Rosen, official portrait, 116th congress
U.S. Senate Photographic Studio / Public domain

Rosen faces Tarkanian, who she is likely to beat once again.

POLLING AVERAGE: ROSEN+8

NEW JERSEY
Mayor Reed Gusciora vs. Fmr. Rep. Jeff Van Drew

Jeff Van Drew Official Portrait 116th Congress
U.S. House Office of Photography/House Creative Services / Public domain
Mayor W. Reed Gusciora
New Jersey Capital Cities / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

With Sen. Menendez all but forced to resign with resurfacing scandals, he opted not to run for re-election. A crowded Democratic primary saw Trenton Mayor Reed Gusciora edge it out. Rep. Gottheimer later tried to run as the Moderate party candidate, but was unable to thanks to the state's sore loser law.

Democratic Senate Primary, NJ
Mayor Reed Gusciora: 35.8%✔
Rep. Josh Gottheimer: 35.1%
Fmr. Mayor Dawn Zimmer: 12.2%
Fmr. Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin: 7.4%
Mayor Mike Venezia: 5.4%

POLLING AVERAGE: GUSCIORA+13

NEW MEXICO
Sen. Martin Heinrich vs. State Sen. William Payne

William H. Payne
U.S. Navy / Public domain
Martin Heinrich, official portrait, 113th Congress
United States Senate / Public domain

This was not the swingy state it once was.

POLLING AVERAGE: HEINRICH+19

NEW YORK
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vs. State Assemblyman Brian Kolb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NYS_Assembly_Minority_Leader_Brian_M_Kolb.jpg#filelinks
Official Assembly Headshot
Kirsten Gillibrand, official photo, 116th Congress
US Senate Photography / Public domain

As should be expected, this is not a close race.

POLLING AVERAGE: NO POLLING, CONSIDERED SAFE D

NORTH DAKOTA
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp vs. Rep. Kelly Armstrong

Kelly Armstrong
Eric Connolly; U.S. House Office of Photography / Public domainHeidi Heitkamp official portrait 113th Congress
United States Senate / Public domain

Despite original prospects of State House Minority Leader Joshua Boschee running, he ultimately dropped out to try and stop vote splitting.

This is Heitkamp's 3rd time going against the incumbent Representative, but it seems like this third try will be the charm for Republicans.

POLLING AVERAGE: ARMSTRONG+8

OHIO
Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Rep. Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan official photo, 114th Congress
United States Congress / Public domain
Sherrod Brown official photo 2009 2
Office of Senator Sherrod Brown / Public domain

Brown is still very popular, although Jordan is fighting hard. Crapo's bad performance so far is leading many to believe Brown has this.

POLLING AVERAGE: BROWN+7

3 expected R gains so far, 2 from M, 1 from D.