N U T Part 3: The 2024 Election and a New America

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

7:16 PM

Well, now we have our first results coming in from the states that closed a few minutes ago...

Vermont Presidential Election: 3% Reporting
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 64.3%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 22.7%
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 7.5%
Others: 5.5%

Virginia Presidential Election: 2% Reporting
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 56.7%
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 20.7%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 14.2%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.1%
Others: 3.3%

South Carolina Presidential Election: 2% Reporting
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 40.7%
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 37.4%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 13.7%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.0%
Others: 3.2%

Florida Presidential Election: 1% Reporting
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 42.3%
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 27.7%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 21.0%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.6%
Others: 3.4%

Georgia Presidential Election: 2% Reporting
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 45.3%
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 30.7%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 15.5%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.1%
Others: 3.4%

and we have more results from Indiana and Kentucky...

Indiana Presidential Election: 16% Reporting
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 40.6%
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 35.8%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 14.4%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.9%
Others: 3.3%

Kentucky Presidential Election: 19% Reporting
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)/Fmr. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): 48.3%
Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)/Sen. Jaime Harrison (D-SC): 36.1%
Rep. Ben McAdams (M-UT)/Fmr. Gov. Phil Scott (M-VT): 7.7%
Fmr. Rep. Justin Amash (Lbn-MI)/Mr. Larry Sharpe (Lbn-NY): 5.7%
Others: 2.2%

Though we'll have to wait for more results to come in, AOC and Jaime Harrison seem poised to win on the first round narrowly. McAdams and Scott are not doing great compared to the polls, it seems like they got very few undecideds. Meanwhile rural areas are showing some good turnout for the Libertarians, as well as some wealthy suburban areas.

Meanwhile downballot races are looking good for non-republicans... we can call a couple races:

Virginia Senate Election: 4% Reporting
Sen. Tim Kaine: 60.1% ✔
Mr. Jerry Falwell Jr.: 36.5%
Other: 3.4%

Vermont Senate Election: 5% Reporting
Sen. Tim Ashe: 66.7% ✔
Fmr. State Auditor Thomas Salmon: 33.2%
Other: 2.1%

With those calls we can project that Democrats will retain control of the Senate.

The following races are too close to call:

Indiana Senate Election: 17% Reporting
Rep. Greg Pence: 50.4%
Sen. Joe Donnelly: 47.3%
Other: 2.3%

Florida Senate Election: 3% Reporting
Lt. Gov. Chris King: 40.5%
Fmr. Mayor Francis Suarez: 37.9%
Rep. Charlie Crist: 18.3%
Other: 3.3%


And finally, the gubernatorial races:

Vermont Gubernatorial Election: 6% Reporting
Mayor Anne Watson: 60.8% ✔
State Rep. Patricia McCoy: 32.9%
Ms. Cris Ericson: 5.8%
Write-in: 0.5%

Indiana Gubernatorial Election: 18% Reporting
Rep. Trey Hollingsworth: 54.3%
Gov. Karen Freeman-Wilson: 42.1%
Other: 3.6%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I made a little crappy TNO-esque superevent, maybe I'll make more, probably not though

[McGarnagle]

I made a little crappy TNO-esque superevent, maybe I'll make more, probably not though

I'd love to see this timeline finish
I was wondering why the updates stopped and was hoping it wasn't dead

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I made a little crappy TNO-esque superevent, maybe I'll make more, probably not though

I'd love to see this timeline finish
I was wondering why the updates stopped and was hoping it wasn't dead

I’ve mostly been busy with IRL and Atlasia stuff so expect this to pick up again in May after the semester ends

[Chips]

Very interesting so far.

[BigVic]

Go AOC!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

7:24 PM

While we wait for some more results, let's take a look at that house map:



Doesn't look too good for the Moderates. They're only ahead in 2 districts, those being Abigail Spanberger's and Stephanie Murphy's. And what in the world is happening in South Carolina?

Well, Democrats are doing surprisingly well in the upstate, mostly due to suburban trends helping them, as well as incumbency in SC's 3rd, where Jeff Duncan, still tainted by scandal, is trying to return to the house.

Also, we've been having trouble getting numbers out of Miami, so we don't have the map for them yet, though they likely are Democratic.

Also to our viewers, remember that house elections are still first-past-the-post, only President was altered by the Fair Elections Amendment. Though, that might change in the next couple years.


Called for D: 22
D leading: 11
M Leading: 2
R leading: 14
Called for R: 20

[EngDawg2020]

I think the detonation of a dirty bomb will have a much bigger effect than thought of in this election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I think the detonation of a dirty bomb will have a much bigger effect than thought of in this election.

Right wing circles, as they do, perpetuate conspiracy theories about how it was antifa, AOC, or (((the elites ))) trying to create sympathy for AOC. That means that a good portion of the population didn’t really have changed opinions since those who felt strongly the other way were not going to support Crapo anyway.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

7:25

Small update here, we have Miami in now.



Called for D: 29
D leading: 12
M Leading: 2
R leading: 14
Called for R: 20

[Utah Neolib]

Bump

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

7:34 PM

We have poll closing occurring in the following states:

Ohio
West Virginia
North Carolina

We are immediately calling West Virginia's Gubernatorial and Senatorial races for Republicans, gains that were widely expected.

Virginia's 1st District, held by Democrat Elaine Luria, stays in the D column.

In Ohio, where trends have been reversing in White Working Class areas thanks to a renewed focus on economic issues by President Sanders, brings us a strong lead for Senator Brown, though not enough to call the race immediately. However in districts like the 5th in Toledo, where Hillary Clinton only won by 2%, we are seeing almost immediately callable numbers for Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz in this district believed to be a Republican target early on.

In North Carolina, we have a surprisingly early call for Governor as Josh Stein wins the seat quite easily according to numbers we're getting. The 5th district, situated in Charlotte's suburbs, sees what was a close race between state Reps Rachel Hunt and Larry Pittman seem to be a lopsided race currently as Hunt has nearly 60% of the vote, though too little is in to call it yet. Representative William Richardson has won re-election to the 8th district, despite NRCC targeting of his district.

We can now say with certainty that the Moderates have a seat in Congress next session as Abigail Spanberger defeats former Rep. Rob Wittman and commentator Krystal Ball.

Meanwhile nationally Senator AOC remains in the mid-40's, a good sign because we'd expect a lot of her support to be on the west coast. She's in serious contention of winning on the first round. Meanwhile Rep. McAdams continues to underperform, falling lower and lower in southern and rust belt states. Currently he's at 17%, far below Senator Crapo's 30%, where he's seemingly overperforming. Rep. Amash sits at about 5%, Mr. Hunter at 1%, and Mr. Schultz also at 1%.  Other candidates combined currently have 1% or so of the vote.

[Meatball Ron]

Love it

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

The 5th district, situated in Charlotte's suburbs, sees what was a close race between state Reps Rachel Hunt and Larry Pittman seem to be a lopsided race currently as Hunt has nearly 60% of the vote, though too little is in to call it yet.

If this holds, the Republicans just need to have Jennifer Knox carpetbag. Knox's grandfather made Hunt's father, once an unbeatable titan, beatable, so if Hunt's electoral strength runs in the family, then so does Helms's.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

7:54 PM

Some big calls in Indiana now as they zoom towards 95% in. Trey Hollingsworth wins the Indiana Gubernatorial race. A disappointment for some Democrats, though allegations of corruption over Governor Freeman-Wilson mean that perhaps this avoided a political quagmire in the state.

The 2nd district is still unable to be called. Incumbent Representative Oliver Davis is locked in a bitter battle against Fmr. Rep. Jackie Walorski. Currently the numbers are 48-47 with Davis holding a narrow edge.

In the 4th District, Representative Greg Goodnight wins re-election.

And in a surprising win, Joe Donnelly wins re-election by a margin of 50-48 over Greg Pence. There's some belief that Pence's connection to his brother may have actually hurt him, as very Trumpist voters have turned on Pence for attempting to stop Crapo. Either way, a surprising hold.

Presidentially, although it doesn't matter much, AOC seems to have won by a narrow margin as we get the last bit of results here. 41-40-12-5-2 seems like it'll be it there.

With that last bit of results in we're also calling the 2nd district, as Rep. Oliver Davis wins re-election. That last batch was mostly from Elkhart and it seems to have tipped the scales to him to hand the Congressman a 49-47 win.

That also brings us to Kentucky, where we can say that Fayette County Democratic Party Chair Josh Mers wins election to the 4th district.

Down in South Carolina, Steven Benjamin wins re-election in the 2nd district. His good performance in Columbia and its suburbs seems to have catapulted him to victory despite this district being swingy.

In the 1st district we also are calling the race for John Tecklenberg, not exactly a surprise in this district that's rapidly trending Dem.

In the 3rd we still can't call the race as incumbent Elizabeth Webster, Former Rep. Jeff Duncan, and Wayne Porter, a local schoolteacher, are locked in a heated race. Currently Webster leads with 36%, Duncan not far behind at 35%, and Porter at 29%.

The 5th district is equally close, with incumbent Mark Ali, Former Rep. Ralph Norman, and Former Superintendent of State Education Jim Rex nearly tied as it seems like Rex is taking more from Ali than Norman. Currently Ali still leads, but only with 35% of the vote to Norman's 34 and Rex's 31.

8 o'clock closings are in just a few minutes, so we turn our attention to those now.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

8:03

Whole bunch of polls closing now, and we're starting to get numbers now. First off in the Governor's races:

Governor Marchand wins re-election in New Hampshire.

State Sen. Nicole Poore wins her election in Delaware.


In the Senate, Chris Murphy wins re-election against Candace Owens. Lisa Blunt Rochester wins her race to become Senator. Peter Franchot wins handily in Maryland. State Sen. President Troy Jackson wins by a huge margin over Fmr. Governor LePage. Elizabeth Warren has won re-election. Reed Gusciora wins over Fmr. Rep. Van Drew in New Jersey. Bob Casey Jr. has won re-election in Pennsylvania. Senator Whitehouse also wins re-election in Rhode Island.


Now for the races we can't call. In Mississippi Senator Wicker has a strong advantage but we can't call yet. In Missouri Senator McCaskill leads narrowly but with most of rural Missouri out we still have the advantage to Fmr. State Rep. Haefner. In Tennessee Taylor Swift leads slightly over Rep. DesJarlais and Fmr. Sen. Corker. Corker is underperforming expectations, and his former supporters seem to be going to Swift a little more than to DesJarlais, so we expect a close race here in this traditionally Republican state.

We are also calling Florida's Senate race for Lieutenant Gov. Chris King, who leads 43-38-17. Apparently a strong Hispanic outreach campaign by Democrats has paid off as only minor swings towards Fmr. Mayor Suarez have occurred in those communities.

Meanwhile presidentially AOC remains well positioned to take a majority on round 1. We'll be right back with house results and new results coming in right after this break.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

here's a question: should I do a state-by-state highlight reel like that new NUT timeline, or continue like this? I'm not sure how long I'll take going like this because I end up getting like 75% done with an update before losing my rhythm.

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

here's a question: should I do a state-by-state highlight reel like that new NUT timeline, or continue like this? I'm not sure how long I'll take going like this because I end up getting like 75% done with an update before losing my rhythm.

The former because there would be more frequent updates.

[McGarnagle]

here's a question: should I do a state-by-state highlight reel like that new NUT timeline, or continue like this? I'm not sure how long I'll take going like this because I end up getting like 75% done with an update before losing my rhythm.

state-by-state

[Captain Chaos]

C'mon. Let's elect AOC President already.

[McGarnagle]

C'mon. Let's elect AOC President already.

Seconded

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Thirded

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

alright. Let's do this.

MAINE

Maine had become somewhat swingy again during the Trump years, but AOC handily carried it.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 53.4%
Crapo/Cotton: 24.8%
McAdams/Scott: 13.3%
Amash/Sharpe: 5.6%
Other: 1.5%

SENATE

Troy Jackson was expected to crush LePage, and he did.

State Sen. President Troy Jackson: 59.8%
Fmr. Gov. Paul LePage: 37.2%
Others: 3.0%

Nominal DEM GAIN from D-Caucusing IND

HOUSE

Maine's 2nd

Jared Golden still was moderate, something putting him at odds with the base. Betsy Sweet was able to win, though Golden ran as an Independent, forcing the election into a second round, though Golden was eliminated on Round 1, since Maine has RCV.

Primary:
Activist Betsy Sweet: 50.8%
Rep. Jared Golden: 49.2%

Round 1:
Activist Betsy Sweet: 34.5%
County Commissioner Andre Cushing III: 33.9%
Rep. Jared Golden: 28.0%
Other: 3.6%

Round 2:
Activist Betsy Sweet: 52.8%
County Commissioner Andre Cushing III: 47.2%
Rep. Jared Golden: 0.0%
Other: 0.0%

DEM HOLD

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

NEW HAMPSHIRE

A state that once was swingy but saw a big margin for AOC. This was Amash's best state east of the Mississippi.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 53.1%
Crapo/Cotton: 20.7%
McAdams/Scott: 18.2%
Amash/Sharpe: 6.6%
Other: 1.4%

GOVERNOR

Marchand was popular and his opponent wasn't extremely well known. Easy hold.

Gov. Steve Marchand: 55.9%
State Sen. Chuck Morse: 39.3%
Other: 4.8%

D HOLD

HOUSE

No real contests here. Both were relatively good D holds.

VERMONT

AOC won her predecessor's home state very handily. This was McAdams' 2nd best state, and Crapo's 2nd worst.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 64.1%
McAdams/Scott: 22.5%
Crapo/Cotton: 8.1%
Others: 5.3%

SENATE

Incumbent Tim Ashe solidified his hold on the seat.

Sen. Tim Ashe: 68.8%
Fmr. State Auditor Thomas Salmon: 29.4%
Other: 1.8%

PRO/DEM HOLD

GOVERNOR

With David Zuckerman losing both the D and Progressive primaries, the pathway was open for Montpelier Mayor Anne Watson to win.

Mayor Anne Watson: 61.7%
State Rep. Patricia McCoy: 32.8%
Ms. Cris Ericson: 4.9%
Other: 0.6%

D GAIN from PRO

HOUSE

Peter Welch won re-election easily.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

MASSACHUSETTS

Yet another D landslide in the Bay State. This was one of 5 states where McAdams finished ahead of Crapo (the others being VT, RI, UT, and DC).

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 62.3%
McAdams/Scott: 18.1%
Crapo/Cotton: 14.7%
Other: 4.9%

SENATE

Elizabeth Warren didn't retire as some expected, and cruised to re-election.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 69.8%
Mr. John Kingston III: 29.5%
Other: 0.7%

D HOLD

HOUSE

No seriously contested election to speak of.

RHODE ISLAND

As mentioned above, RI was one of the states where McAdams was above Crapo. AOC still swept the state.

Ocasio-Cortez/Harrison: 58.8%
McAdams/Scott: 20.1%
Crapo/Cotton: 15.5%
Other: 5.6%

SENATE

Easy hold again, nothing to see here.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse: 65.8%
State Rep. Robert Nardolillo: 33.1%
Other: 1.1%

D HOLD

HOUSE

Rep. Cicilline held on easily for the single district.