Whitman Insights: Biden +10

[Progressive Pessimist]

None of these polls matter. Have to wait till Tuesday at the earliest for the country to absorb  the economic news. The RCP average should be Biden +4 to +5 by the next of next week instead of +7 maybe even lower.

Where is Trump's protest bounce?

The new Trump supporter credo: "Just wait until next week!"

[Alben Barkley]

With that margin (which is consistent with other national and swing state polls), Trump loses all the states he lost in 2016 in addition to NE-02/WI/MI/PA/AZ/FL/NC/GA/OH. TX and IA are close, but I think Biden barely flips TX (closest state in the country) and Trump narrowly holds IA and ME-02. In other words, a 406-132 Biden win.

So what your saying is, the election isn’t a tossup and maybe just maybe Trump is the underdog?

No, I’ve learned my lesson from 2016, which is why I know better than to jump to such unwarranted and premature conclusions.

How is it an unwarranted and premature conclusion to state the objective fact that Trump is the underdog? Saying that he will definitely lose five months out would be an unwarranted and premature conclusion. But saying he is the underdog at this moment is simply the truth. Almost every relevant factor/data point is against him right now.

[Alben Barkley]

This is a pretty compelling poll if Biden can maintain the lead--this is well outside of what Trump can win the EC with.

Well that’s the understatement of the century. As mentioned above, there is a good chance Biden would win a 400+ EV landslide, the biggest since HW 1988, with a lead like this.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is a pretty compelling poll if Biden can maintain the lead--this is well outside of what Trump can win the EC with.

Well that’s the understatement of the century. As mentioned above, there is a good chance Biden would win a 400+ EV landslide, the biggest since HW 1988, with a lead like this.

I would bet money on it that Biden would get over 400 EV’s if he won by 10%

[_]

Just wait til Trump goes nuclear on Biden.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just wait til Trump goes nuclear on Biden.

I like how the goalposts have shifted to where any poll where Biden leads by less than 8 points is essentially "Trump's got this on lockdown" from a lot of Trump supporters

[_]

Just wait til Trump goes nuclear on Biden.

I like how the goalposts have shifted to where any poll where Biden leads by less than 8 points is essentially "Trump's got this on lockdown" from a lot of Trump supporters

I hope I'm not being viewed as a Trump supporter, I'm just posting the R hack take as a meme.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just wait til Trump goes nuclear on Biden.

I like how the goalposts have shifted to where any poll where Biden leads by less than 8 points is essentially "Trump's got this on lockdown" from a lot of Trump supporters

I hope I'm not being viewed as a Trump supporter, I'm just posting the R hack take as a meme.

I think most of us get that.  However, be wary of going to the well too often.  Remember the Law of Geometric Progression of Humor: Use a joke once and you're a wit, use it twice and you're a half-wit.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just wait til Trump goes nuclear on Biden.

I like how the goalposts have shifted to where any poll where Biden leads by less than 8 points is essentially "Trump's got this on lockdown" from a lot of Trump supporters

I hope I'm not being viewed as a Trump supporter, I'm just posting the R hack take as a meme.

I know that, I was just remarking on them in general

[Don Vito Corleone]

Ugh, this is why we need the 538 tracker. RCP will never include any of these.

Why not?

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, this is why we need the 538 tracker. RCP will never include any of these.

Why not?

They're hack-ish. They try and hold onto their R-based agenda, so they ignore a lot of polls.

[Don Vito Corleone]

With that margin (which is consistent with other national and swing state polls), Trump loses all the states he lost in 2016 in addition to NE-02/WI/MI/PA/AZ/FL/NC/GA/OH. TX and IA are close, but I think Biden barely flips TX (closest state in the country) and Trump narrowly holds IA and ME-02. In other words, a 406-132 Biden win.

So what your saying is, the election isn’t a tossup and maybe just maybe Trump is the underdog?

No, I’ve learned my lesson from 2016, which is why I know better than to jump to such unwarranted and premature conclusions.

How is it an unwarranted and premature conclusion to state the objective fact that Trump is the underdog? Saying that he will definitely lose five months out would be an unwarranted and premature conclusion. But saying he is the underdog at this moment is simply the truth. Almost every relevant factor/data point is against him right now.

He's being sarcastic, MTTreasuer mocks that line of thinking a lot so he's making fun of it here.